Sporting Life
Billy Horschel
Billy Horschel

Barbasol Championship betting tips from Ben Coley

Golf
Tue July 17, 2018 · 6y ago

Golf tipster Ben Coley reckons that while all eyes are on The Open, there are a couple of excellent bets to be had in the Barbasol Championship.

Recommended bets:

3pts e.w. Chris Kirk at 14/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

3pts e.w. Billy Horschel at 14/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Tom Lovelady at 80/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

  • For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, click here

The Barbasol Championship might not be the focus of the golfing world this week, but for those assembled in Kentucky it represents an opportunity to make up for missing the Open by earning a place in the PGA Championship next month.

A year ago, PGA Tour rookie Grayson Murray secured his first top-tier victory and went on to finish an excellent 22nd in the final major of the season, while also sealing his playing rights until August 2019, a start in the Tournament of Champions and various other invites which would not otherwise have come his way.

In three previous editions, all hosted elsewhere, birdies have been the order of the day. Scott Piercy started things off with an 18-under victory and since then scoring has got lower still, with Aaron Baddeley winning in 19-under and Murray reaching 21-under; all three featured inside the top 25 per cent of the birdie average stats come the end of the season, and that remains a solid starting point.

Champions in these opposite events, whether here, in Puerto Rico or the stableford Barracuda, fall into a number of categories. There are veterans who are no longer capable of qualifying for majors, up-and-coming youngsters, high-level professionals who've just lost their way a little and even major champions looking for a way back, Geoff Ogilvy having won in Las Vegas a couple of years ago.

This renewal is complicated by a move to Keene Trace GC, but I don't think we should dwell too much on the switch. A moderate-length par 72, the course shouldn't pose too much of a problem to the best players in this field and scoring should again be low, with those able to take advantage of what looks to be a set of scoreable par-fives perhaps set to dominate.

Two names at the head of the betting stand out, and I've no hesitation in backing both of them. Chris Kirk and Billy Horschel hold a huge class edge over the majority of this field, both are coming into form and, unlike some who find themselves at this level, they know how to win.

Kirk's game has been improving quietly for some time. His tee-to-green play has been strong throughout the season and the putter, which at its best is Kirk's strongest weapon, has finally started to warm up. Four events running now he's gained strokes on the field and he's back inside the top 100 on the PGA Tour as a result, a position from which he can continue to climb.

Born in Tennessee and now living in Georgia, where he attended college, Kirk is familiar with the humid conditions expected this week and the first of four PGA Tour wins came this week seven years ago, when the Viking Classic filled this slot on the schedule and he took full advantage.

Since then he's added three more victories, including the FedEx Cup play-off event in Boston where Horschel was second, and recent form figures of 11-52-6-23 combined with a back-catalogue of high-class performances put him at the head of the pack here.

Stats-wise, a new course with four par-fives and expected low scoring suggests that birdie average, par-five scoring and strokes-gained tee-to-green might be the areas to focus on, and if we rank only the players in this field, Kirk is inside the top five for each.

Only three players are higher in birdie average, four in par-fives and none in tee-to-green performance, so with the putter also now joining the party and proven form in opposite events, Kirk is a strong fancy having been firing approaches close throughout last week's John Deere Classic.

So too is Horschel, who also figures prominently in those three categories. Only Horschel, Kirk and Brian Gay are in the top 20 for each but while Gay would be better suited by a shorter course and arguably somewhere by the coast, Horschel appears to have everything in his favour.

Five PGA Tour wins is an excellent return at this level and with the TOUR Championship among them, Horschel's best is far superior to every other serious contender in Kentucky, bar perhaps the headline selection.

He also went close in the Viking Classic before that event moved to a fall slot and more recently, teamed up with former Barbasol winner Piercy to land the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, one year on from his play-off defeat of Jason Day at the AT&T Byron Nelson.

Crucially, several of Horschel's wins have come shortly after his iron-play had clicked. That was the case for his first success, which came in Louisiana, both FedEx Cup Playoff wins and that effort alongside Piercy, with only the Byron Nelson win classifiable as out of the blue.

Having driven the ball well all year, Horschel's iron play went AWOL after that Zurich Classic success but he was back gaining strokes in the Travelers before another big step forward in The National, where he ranked second in greens and was let down by his scrambling, and that's a key indicator that a sixth title is within his grasp.

Born and raised in Florida, Horschel won't mind the sticky heat expected in Kentucky nor any wind which may blow across a reasonably exposed layout, and his long-game should open up plenty of opportunities in an event which is very much there for the taking.

With two players vying for favouritism on side there aren't many others who come under close consideration, although John Oda is worth a second look at the standout 150/1 having come through Monday qualifying with a bogey-free 64.

The UNLV graduate has been playing well on the Canadian Tour of late, already has a top-10 finish at this level in his locker and his prospects are more accurately reflected by the 80/1 quoted elsewhere.

However, my final selection is Tom Lovelady, in the hope that big-hitting and birdie-making could be the order of the day.

Lovelady leads this field in driving distance by quite some way, ranking fourth overall on the PGA Tour - right behind Rory McIlroy, ahead of Luke List. He's also third among these in birdie average and eighth in par-five scoring average, all of which suggests he could go really well.

Recent form clues are a little thin on the ground but he improved for a birdie-fest at the John Deere Classic, ranking second in distance and 15th in greens, while it may be significant that his standout performance this season came when fifth in the Dominican Republic - an event held opposite the WGC-Match Play.

As an Alabama man through and through, one who is good friends with Justin Thomas, I expect this will be right up his street and at 80/1 and upwards he's worth backing in an event where the top two in the market look exceptionally strong.

Posted at 1240 BST on 17/07/18

Related golf links