Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Wyndham Championship
Robert MacIntyre is capable of securing his PGA Tour card and much more besides with a big week at the Wyndham Championship according to Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Wyndham Championship
2pts e.w. Sungjae Im at 30/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Zach Johnson at 70/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Mackenzie Hughes at 70/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Chez Reavie at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Luke Donald at 400/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
There's something villainous about the PGA Tour's way of ending the regular season, before the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin. Not only are they siphoning more money off in the direction of the (largely absent) points leaders during a week where others are fighting for their futures, but this tournament also takes place at Sedgefield Country Club, an old-school throwback where finding fairways carries real worth, and where the biggest and most powerful players probably wouldn't turn up regardless of the schedule.
OK, Sedgefield is not unique. There are other courses, like Harbour Town, where similar rules apply, and there's even another Donald Ross layout on the schedule now thanks to the Rocket Mortgage Classic. But what's certain is the FedEx Cup standings would look very different if this was the norm rather than the exception, just as they would if top-level golf happened to find its home on the shores of Britain rather than the TPCs of America. Those who make their money here had better make it count.
The sub-plot to another million-dollar tournament is part of what makes the Wyndham so fascinating. Only the top 125 in FedEx Cup points at the end of this week will reach the Playoffs, with Rickie Fowler (130th), Tommy Fleetwood (136th) and Justin Rose (138th) among those on the outside looking in. Their careers aren't under threat, but Rose in particular will surely feel it's now or never when it comes to his Ryder Cup prospects.
Equally important is the battle for a place in the top 200, which could come down to missing or making the cut for a player like Michael Gellerman, in 201st. The sponsors aren't as interested so you won't hear this talked about on television, but a place in the top 200 means a ticket to Korn Ferry Tour Finals. A lifeline, in other words. How players like Gellerman, Chris Baker and Monday qualifier David Lingmerth respond to the pressure they're under could have repercussions far greater than where or not Fowler gets to play in New Jersey next week.
All will know that anything is possible in this tournament. It was won by Monday qualifier Arjun Atwal in 2010, his PGA Tour career very much on the line at the time. Since then it's gone to veteran Davis Love, a 500/1 chance, as well as local J.T. Poston who managed to play 72 holes without a dropped shot. In 2020, despite a summer of world-class winners as the pandemic had the effect of strengthening fields, Jim Herman sprang another surprise.
That's why Baker and Gellerman do make some kind of appeal, the former among the most accurate drivers around and the latter playing well until a blip in the Barracuda. Certainly, the Baker profile is a good one, because hitting fairways is important here, more so than most courses. Last year's leader in strokes-gained off-the-tee, Doc Redman, also led the field in driving accuracy. That correlation is exceptionally rare in today's game.
Who is the best bet for the Wyndham Championship?
I'll begin with the most obvious selection, SUNGJAE IM, who brings impeccable course form with him to North Carolina having opened with a round of 64 to take sixth on debut, and then defied a slower start to take ninth last year.
It would be fair to say 2021 hasn't quite gone to plan for the Korean, who has so often found his good work undermined by one round, but such is his reliability across a certain group of courses, typically those which are technical, tree-lined and often with bermuda greens, that he is worth the benefit of the doubt at the odds.
Certainly I still consider him more likely to win pretty much any PGA Tour event than the likes of compatriot Si-Woo Kim, Brian Harman and Russell Henley, and with Patrick Reed having been unnecessarily busy in pursuit of a Ryder Cup place and Will Zalatoris neither an ideal fit nor definitively fit, Im stands out as the biggest threat to those at the top of the market.
Webb Simpson's record here is stupendous and Hideki Matsuyama was unfortunate in some ways not to win in Memphis, but otherwise this looks eminently winnable and I quite like the way Im played at Southwind. He was accurate, hit plenty of greens, gained strokes both off the tee and with his approaches, but had a surprisingly poor week with his short-game and putted very badly.
Typically, Im is among the most reliable bermuda-green putters on the PGA Tour, and last week was probably an anomaly. It's far more likely his long-game endures and even improves, and his stats were very similar to another WGC, in Mexico, which preceded his breakthrough at the Honda Classic in 2019.
His best form since fifth place on his first start of the year has been there and at Detroit, the Ross design referenced earlier, and a look at his wider body of work tells us a lot about where Im is at his most comfortable. He's been runner-up at Jackson, Sea Island and Augusta, won at PGA National in Florida, followed that with third at Bay Hill, and this year has played well at both Sawgrass and Harbour Town, the two courses with the strongest ties to Sedgefield.
Im's form upon arrival this time last year was 53-63-MC-35-MC, so while he's hardly been pulling up trees of late he looks to be in better shape generally and there was underlying promise at Southwind, where although Abraham Ancer won, it wouldn't be unreasonable if others who arrived from Tokyo found it a little difficult to go again.
Henley is respected and wouldn't have needed to be much bigger to go in the staking plan alongside Im, but at a slightly bigger price I've really warmed to the idea that ROBERT MACINTYRE can again impress in a situation which demands plenty.
MacIntyre gained Special Temporary Membership on the PGA Tour last week, but it really doesn't mean much if he doesn't capitalise here. Usually, STM means unlimited sponsor exemptions for the remainder of the season and therefore provides a platform for obtaining full membership, but this is the final event of the regular season, so the only thing it really bought MacIntyre was a final shot at getting his card.
To do so he's going to need something in the region of a top-10 finish, as the requirement is that he manages as many FedEx Cup points as whoever finishes 125th on the list. For that reason the target is fluid, but we know for sure he has a bit of work to do and should he fail, that would likely mean he goes to Korn Ferry Tour Finals, a run of three events which would give him a second chance to secure full status.
All this is a bit complicated and perhaps unnecessary detail if your only interest is who wins the tournament, but it does ensure MacIntyre is playing for a lot more than most. With the Ryder Cup looming, I feel certain he would desperately like to avoid Korn Ferry Tour Finals, but equally if that's his only path to a PGA Tour card he'll be compelled to take it. KFT Finals ends days before the beginning of the BMW PGA Championship, another complication as he'll therefore have to fly into the UK for the final Ryder Cup qualifying event.
Winning the Wyndham is a big ask, but it takes care of everything: he'd be a full member, he'd surely be on the way to the Ryder Cup, and he'd even get to play in the first two tournaments of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and potentially go all the way to East Lake. His Masters invite is already secure, but the riches of the TOUR Championship make it a massive target for anyone at the top of the sport.
Ranked 49th in the world right now, MacIntyre is right on the brink and under big pressure here. There's no guarantee he'll come up with the goods, but he was deeply impressive in making birdie at the last hole on Friday night at the Open, making the cut before a huge weekend, and there was a lot to like about how he stood tall paired with Shane Lowry on Sunday in Memphis.
All of this is supplementary to the fact he's playing really well, said before the Open he feels something special is coming and, in my view, could really take to Sedgefield. Certainly he's an aggressive player who makes a lot of birdies and likes to aim at every flag, and while not the most accurate, he's going to have options here and doesn't need to reach for driver very often. This is more of a wedge and putter contest if you stay out of trouble off the tee, and after showing putting improvement last week it's one he can compete in.
Indeed, MacIntyre's sole European Tour win came in a unique shootout and for all I've written about how much is on the line, he may feel he in fact has nothing to lose. He'll go out there on Thursday at full tilt, that much is certain, and if he gets off to a good start I can see him being towards the top of the leaderboard all week.
Jason Dufner was actually the first name on my list, because he's improved quite a bit lately, remains highly accurate and a fine wedge player, and is on the outside looking in when it comes to the Playoffs. Form at Sawgrass ties in nicely and he's a definite Donald Ross specialist, having won his major championship at Oak Hill when all kinds of steady, fairway-first golfers were in behind, including subsequent Wyndham champion Henrik Stenson.
However, the idea of Dufner shooting 20-under is hard to get your head around for all he's done it in the past, so I'll play it safer with ZACH JOHNSON, who finished eighth behind him in the 2013 PGA Championship.
Johnson has his putting mojo back this season and ranks sixth on the PGA Tour, so the fact his approach play has caught the eye lately, ranking ninth and 10th the last twice, makes him an ideal candidate. Those who follow golf closely will know him as a sublime wedge player who hits fairways and he's very much a course fit.
He'll know it too, and we saw last year what damage he can do at Sedgefield as he shot 61-65 over the weekend to finish seventh. "I love it," he said at the time. "It's old-school, hit the fairway, stay below the hole, everything you would want out of a tournament."
Clearly, he doesn't get that too often but top-10s at the RSM and Honda Classic since demonstrate what he can do when faced with a shorter golf course and he's hit the ball well enough to compete on both starts since the US Open, only for his putter to run cold at precisely the wrong time.
We'll need that to change but he's putted well on three of his four appearances in the Wyndham, two of which have resulted in top-sevens, and his approach play last year was bettered by just one player in the field. A slow start was the only problem but it wasn't necessarily a surprise, as he arrived on two missed cuts and without a top-10 finish anywhere since 2018.
This time his form has much greater substance to it and at 50/1 and bigger, Johnson looks value to add his name to the list of veteran winners we've had this season.
CHEZ REAVIE is a similar player albeit without the putting, but while I'd be a little concerned he doesn't make enough, he's been better lately and at least looks an ideal candidate to have 14 or 15 birdie looks per round.
Fifth in driving accuracy for the year, Reavie's long-game has been improving for a while and he's certainly never had a problem off the tee here, ranking first, second, third and eighth for driving accuracy among his handful of tournament starts.
Reavie shot 64 on his first ever visit to Sedgefield and finished inside the top 10 in each of his first two, and while not as good lately, he hit the ball really well in 2019, and was generally struggling with new clubs and wider long-game issues when disappointing a year later.
He has actually putted well here, gained strokes over the course of his career, and I really like how good a wedge player he is. Presuming he maintains his trademark accuracy he's going to have a lot of approach shots from 100-125 yards (24th for the year in proximity) and 125-150 (11th), and being able to get close to pins on small, back-to-front greens can be as valuable a weapon as a hot putter here.
Last week's low-key performance in the Barracuda is fine by me as that's a really quirky course and format and is played at altitude. Before it he was in contention in the 3M Open, just as he had been in the John Deere Classic, and he shot a confidence-boosting 66 in round two of the Open to make the cut.
Also in the mix early on at the Palmetto Championship in June, Reavie has turned a corner lately, with four top-25s in seven and the promise of more to come. If he can keep things rolling through 72 holes rather than just 54, he has a big chance here granted a half-decent week on the greens.
We should at least be able to plan for good putting when it comes to MACKENZIE HUGHES and he's one I feel is a fair bit overpriced given how well he's been playing of late.
Hughes has contended in each of the last two majors, unfortunate to some degree to be 15th in the US Open before four rounds in the sixties earned him sixth place in the Open Championship. Also 14th in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, that's three top-15s in five starts and the others can be excused: no wonder he ran out of steam at the Travelers, and he shot 75 in the final round of the Olympics when, having started the day 17th, it was medal-or-bust.
There is a bit of a concern that he prefers tougher conditions, hence second place in the Honda, third at the Travelers and these strong major performances, but it was fairly low-scoring when he won the RSM Classic which does correlate nicely, and the same goes for a couple of near-misses in the Corales Puntacana.
He's played well here, too, and it's notable that he was 190th in the world when 22nd in 2019, and further down the rankings when starting well on his debut a year earlier. Now up to 52nd, he has not only improved but has plenty to play for, especially with the Presidents Cup points battle now under way. Hughes showed during last year's Playoffs, when he scrapped to a place at East Lake, that he's good when he needs to be.
The fact that this occasionally errant driver says he likes to club down off the tee here is encouraging, and approach play was the key driver of that top-25 finish two years ago. He sat third after rounds one and two and 10th going into the final round, which be began with four birdies in nine holes before a poor back-nine. In other words, he's contended here when some way short of the level he's at now.
Should Hughes gain strokes off the tee and with his approaches, the stage will be set for a few of those trademark bombs of his to propel him towards a second PGA Tour title. He's certainly capable and his form here suggests it's a good chance to double up at last.
If you're looking for the Herman repeat then options include Bill Haas, who is in a similar position in terms of FedEx Cup points, hails from North Carolina, has three top-sevens here, and signed off the Barracuda with a round of 65 which is his best in over two years.
He's shown signs of encouragement lately, with two top-30s in five starts and rounds of 67 and 68 during missed cuts, but I'll give another chance to LUKE DONALD at similar prices as on balance he's shown a bit more during the season.
Clearly not the player he was, Donald has at least got his approaches firing at times and has ranked inside the top five on two of his last six starts, with 16th in the Valspar and 25th in the Palmetto also very solid. For the season, despite struggling in other departments, he's 55th.
When finishing second here in 2016, Donald led the field in approaches despite being way down off the tee, and he ought to have won given he also putted badly. That club again has improved lately so while down the rankings for the season, note that he's gained strokes in five of his last six and was fourth at the Palmetto.
Results-wise he's managed 13th, 16th and 31st since May and as a multiple Harbour Town runner-up who has also been second at Sawgrass, this is precisely the sort of course on which he can still pop up and compete. To do so he'll need to avoid the foul ball off the tee, keep his wedges firing, and warm up the putter just a little more.
To my eye that doesn't look as big an ask as the odds suggest and unlike Haas, who hasn't yet burned his career money exemption, Donald needs to find something. He'll approach this in the right way, knowing that the course at least keeps the dream alive and that he's done enough to go to Korn Ferry Tour Finals if he so chooses.
Harold Varner almost made the staking plan owing to his form here, at Harbour Town and at Sawgrass, especially given that he's managed top-15s in each of his last two PGA Tour starts and is a North Carolina native like so many who've thrived in their home event. Along with Talor Gooch he'd be one of the best options if you'd like a more serious one than Donald, but this tournament is always prone to producing a massive shock and he has more positives than most at the prices.
Posted at 1300 BST on 10/08/21
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