After another big-priced contender last week, Ben Coley previews the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.
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For a long time now, the Arnold Palmer Invitational has struggled to quite do justice to its host, sitting as it does inbetween two WGCs as the build-up to the Masters gathers pace.
This year, four of the world’s top five take part – plus Honda Classic winner Rickie Fowler – in the first renewal since the passing of The King, one which therefore carries added poignancy and is sure to be the most emotional event of the PGA Tour season.
Plenty has been said about the absence of certain stars and rightly so. This event is invitation-only, and every one of the invitations sent out should’ve been accepted. Each of the top 70 in last year’s Money List gets one, and far too many of them have decided to turn it town.
Granted, golf is by nature a selfish sport and if sitting out the Arnold Palmer paves the way for perhaps Dustin Johnson or Jordan Spieth to win the Masters, they will have no regrets. Even so, it’s disappointing that anyone in a position of such privilege thinks saying no to this one is appropriate.
Fortunately, Rory McIlroy is in town, and he’s joined by Henrik Stenson at the head of the market with the pair already proving popular with punters.
Given that Hideki Matsuyama has produced some bizarrely poor golf since winning every other week for six months, and that Jason Day is a far cry from the golfer who won this title last year, the case for both is strengthened by the lack of strength behind them.
Stenson has that tempting concoction of course and current form, having been inside the top 10 here for four years running and inside the top 10 everywhere worldwide for as long as you care to trace. His accuracy from the tee is a major weapon at Bay Hill and he’s going to be hard to keep out of the frame.
That said, not for the first time in 2017 I thought he was quite a long way below his best at the Valspar Championship last week. To shoot 64 in round one but then fail to mount any sort of weekend challenge suggests as much and I just wonder whether Stenson is more likely to play so-so golf for seventh or eighth than he is to go ahead and win.
As far as Rory is concerned, I’ve put him up for this event in the past owing to clear similarities between Bay Hill and PGA National, home of the Honda Classic, an event he’s won once and ought to have won twice.
He’s a better bet than Stenson at the prices, but this is just his second start after a pretty lengthy absence and his focus remains that second week in April.
Although Tiger Woods won here eight times, Bay Hill has thrown up some skinners in the recent past, two of which came at the hands of Matt Every, one for Martin Laird and another (Greg Owen, look away now) from Rod Pampling.
While Laird hits it high and far, just like Day, the profile of most who go close here says neat and tidy, with an emphasis on tee-to-green control given the hazards which lie close to the edge of just about every fairway on what, unlike last week, is a typical Florida layout.
One man that will suit is David Lingmerth and, at 175/1 in a place or 150/1 with six places at Stan James, the Swede looks the best bet in the market.
Lingmerth first came to the attention of the more casual golf fan with second place in the 2013 PLAYERS Championship at nearby Sawgrass, where he held himself together pretty impressively despite a Tiger-shaped onslaught on the final day.
Having also been sixth and third at the same venue, albeit on a different course, he’s shown a liking for these tough, hazardous Florida layouts and it extends to the Honda Classic, where he finished eighth a year after that effort in the PLAYERS.
Here at Bay Hill, Lingmerth has made four cuts in as many visits, never having arrived in especially great form, and his effort when 13th two years ago reads really well from a ball-striking perspective. In fact, Lingmerth hit all 14 fairways in round two and 13 in round four.
Unsurprisingly given the control he showed, Lingmerth was pretty much error-free that week, making just three bogeys during the course of the tournament. To put that into context, Tiger made 10 when last winning this event and no champion has ever managed fewer than three.
Clearly, Lingmerth didn’t quite take enough of his chances to get seriously competitive but there have been signs of encouragement from all 16 rounds at Bay Hill, experience he could put to use for his second PGA Tour title.
Most of Lingmerth’s form supports the idea that he’s best on tougher courses, including a victory at Muirfield Village, another on probably the most challenging course used on the Web.com Tour in recent years, and some of those Florida efforts I’ve mentioned.
He’s got ties to the same venues Every plays well, including another tough track in Daniel Island, while two top-10 finishes at Firestone confirm that he thrives when the emphasis is on driving. That track is a favourite of Keegan Bradley, and so is this one.
Lingmerth’s price reflects a couple of recent missed cuts, but he was only one shot off the mark at the Honda despite making a mess of those penal par-threes during round two, while the other was over at the Dubai Desert Classic where he again failed by a single stroke.
Either side of those efforts he’s finished a shot outside the top 10 on his debut in Qatar and 27th last week, Sunday’s 68 in difficult conditions the first real reward for some solid play since he teed up in Doha.
As mentioned, Lingmerth’s first Tour win came over at the Memorial Tournament, an event hosted by Jack Nicklaus, and I think the prospects of a legends-of-the-game double are considerably higher than the odds imply.
The next man on my list is the one Lingmerth got the better of for his sole success to date – and that’s Justin Rose.
Truth be told, I’d already settled on the headline selection before reading what Rose had to say about a potential link between this event and the one at Muirfield Village: “It reminds me of the Memorial which happens to be Jack’s tournament.”
While the two layouts may not look similar on TV, there are certain leaderboard ties between them and while links are often there if you really want to find them, in this instance they come via the likes of Every (6th at Muirfield Village), Mark Wilson and Matt Jones. In other words, players who don’t pop up all that often.
Rose also happens to be one of the golfers whose opinion really counts and, like Lingmerth, he’s both won at Jack’s place and gone close several times here, fading to ninth last year, finishing runner-up to Woods in 2013 and third behind Laird in 2011.
As you might expect, all three performances came courtesy of Rose’s trademark tee-to-green play and there’s been nothing wrong on that score this year, as he ranks first in strokes-gained off the tee and highly in all the relevant long-game tables, while also having putted pretty well in the main.
The weakness is his chipping and pitching but he’ll find scrambling easier here than out on the west coast, and having bagged three top-five finishes in five starts he’s clearly started 2017 in the mood to challenge for titles.
Another point worth making is that Rose has a real sense of occasion – just look how he primed himself to win gold in Rio last year – and I’ve no doubt he’ll tee off on Thursday with the clear goal of honouring Palmer by winning the first renewal since his passing.
With a game made for this course, Rose looks a very strong candidate and is supported accordingly.
Russell Henley so nearly landed an each-way return for us last week, where the case revolved around a strong Florida record and some real signs of encouragement having essentially played well for three rounds more than once this season.
Regrettably, that was again the case at Copperhead as he floundered alongside Stenson on Saturday before rediscovering his scoring touch, and given that he’s now a shorter price on a course he’s yet to crack in four visits, he’s overlooked in favour of Kevin Kisner.
Here’s another who has been in the staking plan recently, only for a final-round 77 to see him drop from eighth to 48th over the closing 18 holes of the Honda.
However, for three days Kisner backed up the suspicion that his strong play on the west coast could prove the foundation for better still now back out east, which is where almost all of his best had previously been produced.
Like Henley, he’s not cut much ice at Bay Hill yet but Kisner has had just two starts, including when hovering around the top of the leaderboard on debut only for another disappointing Sunday to cost him a high finish.
That effort is more encouraging than you might first think, however, as Kisner was the last man into the field when Bubba Watson withdrew.
So late was the call that he had to ask a friend with a small plane to fly him out, where he teed off in a marquee three-ball on four hours’ sleep and half a dozen energy drinks, never having seen the course before let alone played a practice round.
With that in mind, a generally solid week which just petered out towards the end is as good as could’ve been expected, and as he now returns while also celebrating his fifth wedding anniversary I think we could see a major improvement in the end result.
Clearly, Kisner has improved beyond measure in the intervening two years, winning for the first time at the RSM Classic and rediscovering that sort of form this season, including when finishing 68-68-68 for 11th in Mexico last time out.
He’d managed to string together high finishes despite not putting as well as he usually does prior to Mexico, where the flat stick was working again, and providing it stays hot and combines with long-term ball control, Kisner should go really well.
While other recent inclusions like Bud Cauley and Tommy Fleetwood also make some appeal, I’m going back to a favourite of mine in Billy Horschel.
Again, Horschel has been in the staking plan this year as he grabbed us a share of a place at 100/1 in the Honda Classic, where a closing bogey cost him second or third and us a full payout.
Finding water on 18 wasn’t an ideal way to end a really impressive ball-striking week, but Horschel took it in his stride, telling reporters that he was proud of how he stood up and tried to hit the hero shot, knowing he needed an eagle to post a potentially winning number.
We know he’s good at bouncing back – the trigger for Horschel winning the FedEx Cup was finding a hazard when needing eagle to win the Deutsche Bank – and while last week’s performance at the Valspar wasn’t good, it at least means he’s right back out to 100/1.
Horschel has been vocal in support of this event and his disappointment that so few of the game’s best players are in the field, and that’s a factor in my belief that he could really rise to the challenge as another who would so proudly honour The King.
Another is the confidence he exuded after the Honda, because a confident Horschel is a match for anyone - as we saw when he ended 2014 by beating the world's best at East Lake.
"Listen, I'm telling you, I know a lot of guys that say this, but second and third round, I mean, I missed so many putts that should have gone,” he said two starts back.
"I easily could have shot 7-under both days, it was that easy of rounds. But there's a lot of good I'm doing.
"I know I've been doing some good stuff, even though the year hasn't started off the way I wanted.
"We've been doing a lot of good stuff but just haven't put it all together.
"I knew coming here I was going to feel comfortable, and I'm ready to kick off my year.
"I'm back to where I feel comfortable on the east coast playing Bermuda greens, Bermuda rough, ryegrass, whatever. I'm used to this stuff. I'm excited about the process forward."
Horschel is one big week away from securing a Masters place and his record at Bay Hill is so very similar to his record at the Honda in that it shows consistency and progression, culminating in a career-best last year.
That share of 20th could and probably should’ve been better and there’s a chance he’ll continue to prove frustrating on the greens, but as a local who is good friends with Every, is really up for this and has the form to back up his bullish interviews, he looks worth chancing.
Anyone who took the early 100/1 about Graeme McDowell has grabbed some value, the former US Open winner having been second to Tiger here before and shown clear signs of promise since the Tour moved out to his Florida base.
Emiliano Grillo’s strong weekend in Mexico could preclude a return to peak form at a course which served him well last year, while Morgan Hoffmann finished runner-up to his friend Fowler in the Honda and has previously been fourth here.
However, I’ll complete the staking plan with a speculative play on Roberto Castro.
This 31-year-old came close to his PGA Tour breakthrough when denied in a play-off at Quail Hollow last year, before playing his way to the TOUR Championship and thereby securing a return to Augusta.
It’s fair to say he hasn’t matched those efforts so far in 2017, but four rounds at the no-cut WGC-Mexico Championship came just at the right time and there was definite promise in the way he started that event, sitting eighth at halfway.
As it has all year, poor putting cost Castro over the weekend but this will be the first time he gets to go on his favoured Bermuda surfaces and it could make all the difference given that most of his best form has come under such conditions.
When Castro does putt well, his accuracy from the tee makes him a huge player and we’ve seen him produce evidence of that here in Florida, where he shot a course record 63 to open the PLAYERS Championship and a career-low 62 at the same venue on the Web.com Tour.
He played nicely enough on his debut in this event 12 months ago and has those form ties with the Memorial, where he’s been 21st and 11th in just three visits, while on his sole start at Daniel Island opened 68-68 to sit third at halfway.
Castro has also shown up well at the FedEx St Jude Classic, an event which brings in further course ties, and his game looks suited to an event where keeping out of trouble is a very solid starting point.
Posted at 1910 GMT on 13/03/17.
Sky Bet are now offering a number of specials for those following our weekly golf tips.
You can back any of the five players to win the Arnold Palmer at 12/1, all five to make the cut at 4/1 and any three of the five to finish T20 or better at 7/1.
It's 8/1 that any one of them shares the lead after round one and 11/4 that among the five selections, at least one finishes the event tied for fifth or better.