Ben Coley looks ahead to Friday's second round in the US PGA Championship, where he's found a trio of three-ball bets.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship round two
3pts Byeong Hun An to beat George Coetzee and Derek Holmes at 20/21 (bet365)
2pts Robert MacIntyre to beat John Catlin and Cameron Champ at 13/10 (Betfred)
1pt Tom Lewis to beat Kevin Na and Jason Kokrak at 12/5 (bet365)
The first round of the PGA Championship answered several of the questions which had dominated the build-up to the event. Some of what we saw was expected, such as Kiawah Island playing shorter than its yardage, and the closing five holes proving particularly difficult. Played from the first, it was an ideal major championship set-up, allowing players to get ahead before being smacked in the face by a closing stretch of unrelenting difficulty.
Perhaps it's significant that Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa started on the 10th, and played that section earlier than Keegan Bradley, who matched the first pair having played the course the correct way. Not that Koepka would've felt like he was on the right side of things when beginning with a double-bogey at the relatively straightforward 10th hole before fighting back admirably.
Koepka arrived under an injury cloud, and is still not at his best. Therein lies one of the unanswered, and unanswerable, questions: will his knee hold up for 72 holes? If we felt sure of the answer, then making him 11/1 versus 8/1 Hovland would be an act of folly, for all the Norwegian continues to take everything in his stride. But we simply don't know, and as the week progresses it will be difficult for anyone, on either side of the fence, to adjust expectations and feel they've landed on the right number.
It's undeniably tempting to get on Koepka, who might've been 11/1 for this before hitting a shot had he not dislocated his kneecap just as he'd returned to winning form at the beginning of spring. But that doubt over his health, and the fact he was loose off the tee, tempers enthusiasm, especially as the way the tournament unfolds will also depend greatly on both the weather and the whim of the PGA.
Sticking to things which ought to be a little more predictable, and I see no reason why BYEONG HUN AN shouldn't win his three-ball just as he did in round one (1747 BST).
An has been quiet this season, and I'm generally a little wary of siding with him. The Korean has long been an elite ball-striker who struggles on the greens, but work on his swing with coach Sean Foley has not produced the results we might expect.
But in George Coetzee he's grouped with someone who is still more wayward, and the South African needed some of the best short-game numbers in the morning wave to get it round in 75. Both off the tee and with his approaches, Coetzee struggled, and he's in for a long day if that continues.
An on the other hand played quite nicely, gaining strokes with his approaches and doing everything else to a decent enough standard. It's significant that he made just two bogeys, registering 15 pars as he coped really well with a difficult challenge. And to be frank, he's a bit better than Coetzee under just about any conditions, but particularly these.
Completing the three-ball is PGA professional Derek Holmes, who did well to shoot 79. He shouldn't be a concern and in a head-to-head, anything bigger than 4/6 about An, Thursday's two-stroke winner and with the better underlying statistics, looks a steal. He's precisely that with every firm to have priced up so far and it's worth taking.
At a bigger price, TOM LEWIS is also a decent a bet at 12/5 with bet365, with both BoyleSports and Betfred quoting a perfectly fair 9/4 (1904 BST).
A proven performer in the breeze courtesy of his double-winning form in Portugal, plus in the Dunhill Links and the Open Championship, Lewis has played some nice golf this spring and sounds like he's in a good place as he seeks to establish himself in the US.
He certainly played some excellent golf, reaching three-under before playing that tough closing stretch in two-over, which was less than a stroke worse than the field average. And Lewis managed it by doing what he does best: long, straight driving and quality approach play, barely making a putt of note.
Amazingly, his successful birdie putts came from nine inches, 13 inches and three inches, testament to how well he struck the ball, and a one-under 71 represents an excellent start.
It was matched by Jason Kokrak, who deserves favouritism, but with Kevin Na only able to break 80 by a stroke, he's going to need significant improvement to get involved. While a handful of tees were brought forward, there were nevertheless few very short hitters high on the leaderboard and Na needs to be at his absolute best to be competitive here.
Kokrak was two behind Lewis with four to play and the bottom line is that while he is marginally superior on everything we have in front of us, he's a shade of odds-against versus upwards of 2/1 about the Englishman, who has always had the talented to compete on this stage.
Finally, ROBERT MACINTYRE looks a good favourite against John Catlin and Cameron Champ (1814 BST).
Catlin would've edged this group on Thursday but for what appears to have been an extremely harsh slow-play penalty, the sort you don't see handed out to players with PGA Tour cards who are household names, even if this event is run by the PGA of America.
Anyway, the American is entitled to feel aggrieved and it might just be a bit of a shock to the system to find himself under such scrutiny in what's his first major championship. His dream hasn't quite turned to nightmare yet but it will if he misses the cut on the number.
Regardless of that he shot 75 on Thursday thanks to the hottest putter and the worst iron play in the field (morning stats only), which is a huge worry. It is highly unlikely he makes anything like as many putts whereas long-game problems tend to be a good deal more likely to carry over.
MacIntyre, by contrast, made nothing. Typically an assured putter, expect that to change and if so it should be enough to beat his fellow European Tour member. Champ, meanwhile, produced not only some of the worst short-game numbers but drove the ball terribly in a round of 82 from which he's unlikely to bounce back.
Posted at 2145 BST on 20/05/21
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