Alfred Dunhill Championship preview and betting tips from Ben Coley
After a 16/1 winner and 50/1 place last week, don't miss Ben Coley's take on the Alfred Dunhill Championship where Brandon Stone looks worth siding with.
Recommended bets
2pts e.w. Brandon Stone at 28/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. J.C. Ritchie at 250/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Anthony Michael at 200/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Trevor Immelman at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Max Schmitt at 250/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Leopard Creek returns to the schedule after a year-long hiatus and it's a warm welcome back to one of South Africa's most iconic courses, one which surely won't have changed too much despite renovations which mean it's two years since Brandon Stone romped to victory over compatriot Richard Sterne.
Set on the boundary of Kruger National Park, this is a popular and familiar venue and one where the home contingent have dominated, winning each of the last six renewals. In fact just five nationalities have triumphed here since the rain-affected inaugural edition went to England's Anthony Wall, with Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Marcel Siem and Alvaro Quiros among the successful foreign raiders.
Stone is far from the only South African to add a processional flavour to this end-of-year safari. His six-shot win is half the margin Charl Schwartzel managed in 2012, before winning it by four in 2015, while Branden Grace had seven shots in hand over Louis Oosthuizen in 2014. After the latter scored by six on Sunday, you'd be forgiven for thinking the others need not apply.
Indeed it is these four players around whom attentions should be focused, and with Oosthuizen at risk of an emotional letdown at a course which has foxed him many times before, and Schwartzel still clearly lacking confidence in his swing to go with more familiar putting woes, it's Grace and Stone who make most appeal.
The former is very close with Oosthuizen off the course and was the only player to get close to him on itduring the final round of the SA Open, but his failure to see the effort through sums up a frustrating 2018. It surely wasn't nerves that cost this prolific champion and at 9/1, with frailties remaining in his game, he can be overlooked.
Stone, on the other hand, finished with a real flourish at Randpark and that sets him up perfectly for this de facto title defence.
The youngster, long thought of as the heir apparent to those mentioned and capable of challenging at the very top of the sport, was in a league of his own here two years ago. Particularly impressive was the way he talked up a third-round pairing with Schwartzel before beating his more decorated rival, and from that point onward it was merely a case of how far.
Victory in the Scottish Open this summer, one which came courtesy of a final-round 60 which ought to have been the European Tour's first ever 59, represented another step up the ladder and this 25-year-old has so much more to give.
Like so many of his profile, Stone has just struggled a little for consistency but it was no surprise whatsoever to see him improve for a return to South Africa last week and on home soil he's always to be considered a serious threat.
So far he has two co-sanctioned wins in 22 attempts - the first half-dozen or so coming during his initiation when never likely to contend - and having been 18th on debut despite a poor putter, his Leopard Creek credentials are flawless.
As Schwartzel and, earlier, Pablo Martin have proven, this is a course where the same names do tend to pop up and having finished with a wet sail at Randpark, everything looks in place for another strong performance.
I am baffled as to why the more consistent but less capable Dylan Frittelli is half the price after he failed to lift a leg in Johannesburg and for all that I fancied Thomas Aiken last week, his inspired effort came at a bigger price and he's not one to get carried away with at 25/1.
Stone, by contrast, looks a rock-solid proposition and unlike last week, we don't have to guess when it comes to the state of his game.
While Erik van Rooyen can go well if over whatever ailment caused his withdrawal from the SA Open, and French duo Romain Langasque and Victor Perez have to be respected, I'll largely stick to the home team in what's been a South African benefit recently.
At 250/1 in places, J.C. Ritchie is well off the radar but he looks a fascinating contender to me and can confirm that he's among the more promising young players on the Sunshine Tour.
Ritchie's price is a reflection of his form figures, which read 24-60-MC-76, but those performances have all been overseas including in the world-class WGC-HSBC Champions last time out.
For now, he's far more likely to show his hand close to home and that's exactly what happened in January, when a pair of weekend 65s saw him chase home Chris Paisley and Grace in the more prestigious SA Open.
From there he went on to finish 13th in the Tshwane Open, so having skipped last week's event in favour of a tilt at Web.com Tour Qualifying School he's contended on both 2018 starts in events similar to this one.
On the Sunshine Tour he boasts a win, a second, third, fifth and eighth from just 10 starts this year, the victory coming on his penultimate start in August, and as for Leopard Creek he played well here as a Tuesday qualifier back in 2016, finishing 28th having sat 10th with a round to play.
Granted, he failed to get close to securing a Web.com Tour card over the weekend but Ritchie did finish with a best-of-the-week 64 and will find this much more to his liking. He's certainly worth chancing at the prices on offer.
While not as promising - he's almost a decade older - the each-way claims of Anthony Michael are no less appealing.
Take the simple course-and-current formula and Michael, runner-up here in 2010, comes right into the reckoning on the back of a share of seventh, alongside Grace and Stone, in Joburg last week.
That's almost all there is to it, but it's worth noting that he'd finished 10th on the Sunshine Tour in November which means his form coming in is similar to that which preceded his excellent effort here at the start of the century.
Back then, Michael had only just turned professional yet led all the way until understandably coming up just short in the final round. Were it a horse race, you'd say the form reads really well with Martin having successfully defended his title and Michael finishing alongside Schwartzel and rookie Thorbjorn Olesen.
Two subsequent starts in the event have been less impressive, but he did start nicely in the latest renewal and there's no shame in a big number or two here - just ask Lucas Bjerregaard, who shot 89 in the final round of the 2014 edition when in with a chance to win.
Michael has also been third in the Tshwane Open, so from a limited number of opportunities in these valuable co-sanctioned events he's twice threatened to win, and having been third on the Challenge Tour earlier this year - his personal best overseas - there are grounds to believe he'll be as confident as ever before.
Last week's performance did come on his home course but there are associated pressures and perhaps he'll enjoy this free roll at a layout he can clearly play.
Earlier in the year I wrote about the promise shown by Trevor Immelman, most notably when contending for the Scottish Open, and this looks the first real opportunity to chance him.
Immelman has an outstanding course record, registering top-10 finishes in each of his four starts at Leopard Creek, and just maybe there will be further cause for celebration when he turns 39 on Sunday.
The former Masters champion definitely isn't one to write off having followed third place at Gullane with four solid performances throughout October and November, the gap between those and July's Scottish Open indicative of the struggles attached to being without full playing privileges.
As such it was after a four-week break that he returned to action at Randpark, where he'd struggled on his sole previous visit, and with that in mind it's possible to put a positive spin on rounds of 72 and 71 which saw him miss the cut without looking like he's a million miles away.
It's five years now since Immelman last won, but that victory came on the back of a run of results similar to those he'd been producing before the SA Open and at three-figure prices, it has to be worth taking on board the obvious risks here at a course he knows so well.
Finally, I mentioned on twitter that this event has been a springboard for many a European talent, such as Olesen, Thomas Detry, Andrew Johnston and Andrea Pavan, and it's notable how many recent Challenge Tour winners have contended this decade.
Regrettably, there are none I really like - having put up Oliver Wilson in Mauritius only to see him place last week, I'm loathe to go back in, while Kim Koivu's withdrawl in Joburg and the form of Adri Arnaus are obvious concerns.
Instead, I'm willing to chance Max Schmitt, the young German who came through Qualifying School in brave fashion after an unsuccessful Challenge Tour campaign, and has taken advantage of his newfound status with finishes of seventh and 33rd over the last fortnight.
Schmitt won three times in 10 starts on the Pro Golf Tour last year, one he began as an amateur, and has long been earmarked for stardom in a country looking for its next Martin Kaymer.
It remains to be seen how far he can go but, while he's in form, acclimatised and playing with nothing to lose, he has to be worth a small bet in an event won by compatriot Siem in 2004.
Finally a quick word for Marc Warren, who has struck the ball really well either side of a successful Q-School run. Some will tell you that Qualifying School form is worthless, but Langasque and Kurt Kitayama have suggested that's not the case and the classy Scot shot 66 when last teeing it up here.
Haydn Porteous played really well for seventh last week but has never fired here, enough to leave him out, while Hennie Otto's ball-striking was probably a red herring and he's not contended in one of these for a while.
Of last week's selections, Porteous and Sean Crocker were hardest to leave out but with Stone rated a strong fancy, I'm happy to keep the rest of the attack a little more speculative.
Posted at 2050 GMT on 10/12/18