Azerbaijan Grand Prix betting tips: F1 preview, picks and analysis
Louis Bollard's 5pts at 14/1 has landed ahead of time, but can Charles Leclerc add to his two grands prix wins in 2024?
Formula One betting tips: Azerbaijan Grand Prix
3pts e.w. Charles Leclerc at 5/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt Sergio Perez podium finish at 10/1 (General)
1pt Nico Hulkenberg top-six finish at 16/1 (bet365, BoyleSports)
- Follow Formula One expert Louis Bollard on X
Last time out the Italian Grand Prix ended with a superb home win for Ferrari which landed us a 14/1 winner as Leclerc won his second race of this season. This weekend Formula One heads to Baku for the 2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix, and a hat-trick looks very much a possibility.
Baku is always an interesting race from a betting perspective as teams can utilise a wide range of downforce settings, from Monaco-level downforce to combat the tight, intricate street corners, to Monza configurations which will reap the rewards of the long straights including the 2.1km home straight where the cars achieve a speed of 370 km/h.
Baku is a track where we see the same drivers excel here year after year and who better to get behind this weekend than the man who has taken every pole position here since the Covid pandemic, CHARLES LECLERC.
The Ferrari car philosophy has in recent years thrived on intricate, bumpy circuits where acceleration trumps high-speed downforce, and no tracks require this characteristic more than Baku, Monaco and Singapore. Having already won from pole in Monaco this season and there being some similarities between the streets of Baku and the Monza configuration, there is no better time for Leclerc to get his first win in Azerbaijan.
Leclerc has three consecutive pole positions around this circuit yet has never managed to convert one of them to a win. However this year he has the machinery to compete on a Sunday that he didn't have in the past. His form on this circuit stretches back to his debut season with Sauber where he managed P6 in a back-marker car, and in this Ferrari he holds an outstanding chance.
Leclerc is a shorter price at 5/1 this week than he usually is, but given the characteristics of this track he could arguably be favourite. That makes him a cracking each-way bet, with money back if he's second or third. On that, be sure to check bookmaker terms, with others paying a third the odds for a top-two.
Pick Perez for podium finish
Yes you read that right, I am backing a SERGIO PEREZ redemption. Checo has a phenomenal record on this nuanced track, having picked up five podiums in seven attempts, including two wins.
Two of these podiums came when he was driving midfield machinery, and although Red Bull's downfall has been significant, his car is superior to what he had when he stood on the podium in both 2016 and 2018.
Although both his wins have been fortuitous (Max Verstappen DNF in 2021 and a lucky safety car in 2023), he was still in position to benefit. His 2023 drive was especially notable as he was able to hold off Verstappen for over 30 laps, a feat which he has failed to achieve on most other tracks.
Perez does love this place and at 10/1 I couldn't ignore him making it six podiums from eight attempts.
Hulkamania
The race was over for NICO HULKENBERG on lap two in Monza after separate incidents with both of the VCARBs, however he did show strong pace on a track that was due to suit them.
This pace was further highlighted by Haas teammate Kevin Magnussen, who managed to score a point despite picking up an undeserved 10-second penalty, for which he faces a race ban this weekend.
Magnussen managed to pull 10 seconds clear of Fernando Alonso and within four seconds of Perez when crossing the finish line.
The Haas should enjoy the top-speed requirement of the Baku circuit this weekend and challenge for best of the rest. With the opportunity for chaos around these streets it wouldn't be a surprise to see places open up in the top six for midfield drivers to occupy.
Hulkenberg can lead the Haas charge and score valuable points.
Posted at 1540 BST on 12/09/24
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