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xG World Cup review: Day two scorelines according to expected goals

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Tue November 22, 2022 · 2y ago

We deliver the xG (expected goals) scoreline, a 'fairness' rating and noteworthy data points as Wales draw with USA after wins for England and the Netherlands.

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

  • We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

USA 1-1 Wales

Wales bounced back from a desperately poor first half to deservedly earn a point against the USA in their World Cup opener.

Gareth Bale scored a late penalty to level things up, but the longer the game went on, the stronger Wales grew in what was a cliche game of two halves.

In the first half, the xG totals read USA 0.82 - 0.11 WAL, with Rob Page's side comfortably second best.

The second half was emphatic for the Dragons though, reading USA 0.14 - 1.76 WAL.

Welsh fans will be hoping to pick up from where they left off in this game when facing Iran on Friday.

England 6-2 Iran

  • Infogol xG: 2.41-1.47
  • Fairness rating: 76.67%
  • Bellingham 35', Saka 43', 62', Sterling 45+1', Rashford 71', Grealish 90' | Taremi 65', 90+13' pen

England thrashed Iran to get their campaign off to the best possible start, with only a contentious 113th-minute VAR penalty denying them a record-equalling World Cup victory.

The clinical nature of England's performance is exemplified by their six goals coming from 12 shots equating to only 2.35 xG; Infogol calculates there was just a 3.3% chance of that xG total leading to six goals being scored.

A huge positive for Gareth Southgate's men, criticised in the build-up for a lack of attacking ambition, was their creation of three ‘big chances’ (0.35 xG+) in the game - scoring all of them.

England also allowed just 0.34 xGA in normal time with a late chance for Sardar Azmoun (0.33 xG) and Taremi’s penalty (0.80 xG) giving the xG scoreline a misleading look.

This was an emphatic display from the Three Lions.

Senegal 0-2 Netherlands

The Netherlands got their World Cup campaign off to the perfect start with a hard fought win over AFCON champions Senegal.

In what was a game of few chances, Cody Gakpo pounced late on to give Oranje the lead before substitute Davy Klaassen added a second.

Louis van Gaal's men deserved the victory based on the quality of chances created, with the Infogol model calculating they had a 53% chance of securing the victory.

The Dutch racked up two 'big chances' while limiting Senegal to none, as the African side took 15 shots equating to just 0.73 xG, an average of just 0.05 xG per shot. Not good.

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