Sporting Life
Brazil and Portugal are into the last 16

xG World Cup review: Day nine scorelines according to expected goals

By Jake Osgathorpe & Joe Townsend
Football
Wed November 30, 2022 · 2y ago

We deliver the xG (expected goals) scoreline, a 'fairness' rating and noteworthy data points from across day nine of the World Cup.

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

  • We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

Portugal 2-0 Uruguay

A Bruno Fernandes brace sent Portugal into the knockout stage - but it was not without good fortune.

His opener, a cross from deep, initially looked as though Cristiano Ronaldo had glanced a fine header home but replays showed the ball went straight in, meaning Fernando Santos' team failed to create a non-penalty 'big chance' (0.35 xG+) in the entire game.

Fernandes' stoppage-time penalty was awarded following a VAR referral for a very harsh handball.

Uruguay, meanwhile, will rue Rodrigo Bentancur's failure to convert the best open-play chance of the game (0.52) following a superb 60-yard mazy run, with goalkeeper Diogo Costa denying him one of the goals of the tournament with the goal gaping just after the half hour.

Defeat means Diego Alonso's men must beat Ghana in their final group match to reach the round of 16.

Brazil 1-0 Switzerland

Casemiro struck late to secure Brazil's place in the knockout stage with a game to spare.

Switzerland frustrated the five-times winners for long periods as they felt the absence of injured superstar Neymar, with Vinicius Junior's 27th minute scuffed shot (0.49) - well saved by Yann Sommer - and an injury time chance for Rodrygo (0.42) the only 'big chances' (0.35 xG+) that Tito's men were able to muster.

But the Brazil boss will no doubt be delighted with the phenomenal defensive performance of his side in their opening two games. They are yet to concede a goal and have allowed only 0.63 xGA in total.

Ominous.

South Korea 2-3 Ghana

The goals continued to flow on day nine of the World Cup, with South Korea and Ghana sharing five goals as the African side took the three points.

Defences were again suspect given the high stakes surrounding the game, with chances flowing throughout the contest.

The Koreans were unfortunate to lose the game based on the opportunities created, racking up over 2.0 xGF, with Infogol calculating they had a 55% chance of winning the contest.

Ghana are in a decent position to qualify now, but ahead of their final group game, they need to tighten things up at the back.

They have shipped a total of 5.01 xGA and five goals in their two games to date, a huge worry.

Cameroon 3-3 Serbia

  • Infogol xG: 1.99-2.33
  • Fairness rating: 93.31%
  • Castelleto 29', Aboubakar 63', Choupo-Moting 66' | Pavlovic 45+1', S Milinkovic-Savic 45+3', A Mitrovic 53'

We were treated to a six-goal thriller on Monday morning, as Cameroon came from two goals down to draw with Serbia.

The result and scoreline were very fair according to the Infogol model, as both sides generated plenty of good chances.

After both failing to break 1.0 xGF in their opener, the pair racked up 1.99 and 2.33 in the game, a complete contrast.

Both defences were a disaster on the day, with major problems at the back contributing to a chaotic match, and that doesn't bode well heading into the final round of group stage games.

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