Sporting Life
Croatia celebrate victory over Morocco

xG World Cup review: Day 28 scorelines according to expected goals

By Tom Carnduff
Football
Sun December 18, 2022 · 2y ago

We deliver the xG (expected goals) scoreline, a 'fairness' rating and noteworthy data points from the third place game between Croatia and Morocco.

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

  • We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

Croatia 2-1 Morocco

Croatia secured bronze at the 2022 World Cup with a 2-1 victory over Morocco in the third place play-off.

Mislav Oršić's wonderful curling effort in the first-half proved to be the difference for Croatia, who had taken the early lead thanks to Joško Gvardiol's header from a well worked set-piece routine.

Achraf Dari levelled the score just minutes after Croatia's opening strike, with his close range effort (0.53 xG) one of the two big chances that Morocco created across the 90 minutes.

It brought an end to Morocco's fairytale tournament, as they became the first African side to reach the semi-final stage of a World Cup.

Moroccan frustrations were felt at the full-time whistle as their players and staff argued with the officials - emotions that contrast the widely-held belief that this game holds little importance at the tournament.

For Croatia, they can add bronze to their runners-up medals from 2018, although there was an element of fortune to their run deep in the competition.

They posted the lower xG total in their last five games, highlighting the difference in the quality of chances they were creating compared to what they were allowing to their opponents.

Croatia deserve huge credit for back-to-back tournaments of defying both odds and expectations, with their resilience and determination pushing them to the final weekend once again.

A point of interest is that only eight of their squad were there in 2018, which gives hope for further success in the future for a nation with a population of under four million.

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