Sporting Life
Croatia celebrate with Dominik Livakovic

xG World Cup review: Day 20 scorelines according to expected goals

By Tom Carnduff
Football
Sat December 10, 2022 · 2y ago

We deliver the xG (expected goals) scoreline, a 'fairness' rating and noteworthy data points from day 20 of the World Cup.

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

  • We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

Croatia 1-1 Brazil (4-2 pens)

Croatia upset the odds by knocking Brazil out of the tournament at the quarter-finals stage - thanks to a 4-2 victory on penalties.

A Seleção enjoyed the majority of the opportunities across the 90 minutes but couldn't get past Dominik Livakovic in the Croatia net.

That changed in added time of the first-half of extra-time, with Neymar's give-and-go exploiting a gap in the defence before patient play left Livakovic stranded.

The forward hit the ball into the roof of the net from close range (0.55 xG), and they looked like they had booked their spot in the final-four.

However, with their only opportunity created after going behind, substitute Bruno Petkovic smashed in a late equaliser to take the contest to penalties.

Livakovic - who had made 11 saves across the game - stopped the first penalty with Croatia converting all four of their efforts.

Marquinhos stepped up for the decisive fourth Brazilian spot kick, and he smashed the post to send Croatia into successive World Cup semi-finals.

It means that they have also posted the lower xG tally in each of their last three games at the tournament.

Netherlands 2-2 Argentina (3-4 pens)

Lionel Messi and Argentina's World Cup dream continues after victory on penalties over the Netherlands.

The South American side looked set to go through to the final four following Messi's converted penalty in the 73rd minute, but the Netherlands fought back to force extra-time.

Louis van Gaal's side adopted a direct approach with substitute Wout Weghorst introduced, and he scored twice to bring them back into the contest.

Neither side could find a way through during a highly-entertaining extra-time period, despite Argentina enjoying the better of the opportunities, sending the game to spot kicks.

Emiliano Martínez saved the first two, and Argentina progressed after Lautaro Martínez netted the fifth and final penalty.

It was yet another strong defensive display from La Albiceleste - who have conceded just 1.98 xGA across their five games at the tournament.

World Cup: More from Sporting Life