Sporting Life
Luka Modric and Neymar in action

xG World Cup review: Day 16 scorelines according to expected goals

By Jake Osgathorpe & Joe Townsend
Football
Tue December 06, 2022 · 2y ago

We deliver the xG (expected goals) scoreline, a 'fairness' rating and noteworthy data points from day 16 of the World Cup.

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

  • We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

Brazil 4-1 South Korea

  • Infogol xG: 4.24-0.78
  • Fairness rating: 96.15%
  • Vinícius Junior 7', Neymar 13' pen, Richarlison 29', Lucas Paquetá 36' | Paik Seung-Ho 76'

Brazil booked a meeting with Croatia by brutally dismantling South Korea in the opening half an hour of their last-16 tie.

By the 13th minute the underdogs had a mountain to climb as they trailed 2-0, by the 29th it was game over and by the 36th it was in danger of becoming an embarrassing rout.

Fortunately for the South Koreans, the tournament favourites eased off after the break having scored four times from 2.99 xG in the opening period, with South Korea even grabbing a consolation through Paik Seung-Ho's spectacular strike.

Across the 90 minutes, Tite's men created a staggering seven 'big chances' (0.35 xG+).

A statement win from Selecao.

Japan 1-1 Croatia (1-3 pens)

The 2018 World Cup runners-up Croatia qualified for the quarter-finals of the 2022 edition thanks to a penalty shoot-out win over Japan.

It was a seventh knockout game out of their last eight that went to extra-time, the only game that didn't being the World Cup final four years ago.

The game finished 1-1 in normal time, but based on the quality of chances created by both teams in 90 minutes (xG: JAP 1.65 - 1.12 CRO), Japan had a 49.5% chance of winning it.

They created three 'big chances' in the game to Croatia's zero, and limited their opponents to an xG per shot of just 0.06.

Japan head home, but have really impressed at the tournament, beating Germany and Spain and unfortunate now to bow out to Croatia.

As for the winners, they head through to the quarters, but have been majorly uninspiring if we exclude their win over a naive Canada side.

In three games, against Morocco, Belgium and Japan, they have averaged 0.99 xGF and 1.89 xGA, so surely have to find another gear if they are to match their run to the final four years ago.

ALSO READ: Our best bet for every game on every day of the World Cup

World Cup: More from Sporting Life