Sporting Life
Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane

xG World Cup review: Day 15 scorelines according to expected goals

By Joe Townsend
Football
Mon December 05, 2022 · 2y ago

We deliver the xG (expected goals) scoreline, a 'fairness' rating and noteworthy data points from across day 15 of the World Cup.

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

  • We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

England 3-0 Senegal

England survived a scare in the opening half hour to ultimately book a quarter-final meeting against holders France with relative ease.

Senegal missed a huge opportunity through Ismaila Sarr in the 23rd minute - rated as the best chance of the match by Infogol with an xG of 0.67 - when the Watford winger blazed over from close range.

The African champions were made to pay for that profligacy as England did not concede another chance of more than 0.09 xG in the rest of the game.

In fact, between the 32nd and 84th minutes, the Three Lions did not allow a single shot from inside the penalty area.

In attack, England created three opportunities of 0.25 xG or greater - Jordan Henderson (0.42), Harry Kane, (0.27) and Bukayo Saka (0.48) - and scored all of them.

A clinical performance at both ends of the pitch.

France 3-1 Poland

Kylian Mbappe was the difference as France laboured to victory over Poland in the round of 16 to secure a quarter-final meeting with England.

The PSG star created the opener for Olivier Giroud, France's only significant chance of the match according to expected goals (0.32 xG), just before half-time, only a few minutes after Poland somehow failed to take the lead in a goalmouth scramble which saw the best opportunity fall to Piotr Zielinski (0.51).

The Poles were impressive in the opening period but less so after the break as neither side managed to take a significant grip on the match.

It wasn't until Mbappe fired home a signature finish from the left-hand side of the area in the 74th minute and then scored from a very similar position in stoppage time, which added a flattering look to the scoreline, that the game became safe.

Robert Lewandowski's consolation penalty with the final kick of the match, following first a VAR handball check and then a retake when his initial effort was saved by Hugo Lloris (who was adjudged to have moved off his line too early) gave the scoreline a fairer representation.

Even without that spot-kick, the 'xG battle' would have finished France 1.25-1.15 Poland.

The difference? Kylian Mbappe.

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