Sporting Life
Argentina celebrate Alexis Mac Allister's goal against Poland

xG World Cup review: Day 11 scorelines according to expected goals

By Tom Carnduff
Football
Thu December 01, 2022 · 2y ago

We deliver the xG (expected goals) scoreline, a 'fairness' rating and noteworthy data points from across day 11 of the World Cup.

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

  • We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

Poland 0-2 Argentina

Argentina secured their spot at the top of Group C with a comfortable 2-0 win over Poland.

For their opponents, they also progressed based on goal difference, with a genuine situation unfolding where they were going to go through based on fewer yellow cards received.

It was yet another strong defensive showing from Argentina, who have conceded just 0.67 xG across their three games so far.

That puts them in a great position as they face Australia in the next round, a team who have created 1.59 xG in their Group D matches.

Saudi Arabia 1-2 Mexico

Mexico finally put in a strong performance at the World Cup, but it was too little, too late as they exited at the group stage.

Leading 2-0 for the majority of the second-half, they knew one more goal would have been enough to book their spot in the round of 16.

However, Saudi Arabia's 95th minute strike confirmed both Mexico and Poland's fate, in a dramatic conclusion to an entertaining encounter.

It was Mexico's best attacking showing at the tournament by far. They had created just 0.99 xG across their two games before this.

Tunisia 1-0 France

  • Infogol xG: 0.71 - 0.63
  • Fairness rating: 71.73
  • Scorers: Khazri 58'

Tunisia's 1-0 win over a much-changed France side wasn't enough as they exited the World Cup at the group stage.

The North African side knew that a win here, combined with Australia dropping points, would be enough to send them into the round of 16.

That was the case for mere minutes after Wahbi Khazri fired them into the lead just before the hour mark, finding a way through after pushing in the first-half.

Chance creation up until the final stage was fine, but the 0.14 xG on their tally at the break highlighted how they had issues converting them into shots on goal.

For France, 0.63 xG was their lowest of the tournament by far - with 4.59 for four goals against Australia and 2.95 for two against Denmark.

Even with the introduction of Kylian Mbappe among a host of usual starters as the game entered the latter stages, they struggled to find a way through an organised Tunisian defence - with their bench glued to screens watching the final moments of the other game.

As the whistle blew there, Antoine Griezmann struck from close range to give France what they thought was a late equaliser - but a lengthy VAR check ruled it out AFTER the initial full-time whistle had gone.

The current champions still finished winners in Group D.

Australia 1-0 Denmark

  • Infogol xG: 0.44 - 0.82
  • Fairness rating: 57.88
  • Scorers: Leckie 60'

Mathew Leckie's strike on the hour mark booked Australia's spot in the round of 16 with a 1-0 win over Denmark.

The Socceroos knew they had the advantage going into the final round of fixtures, but Tunisia taking the lead against France briefly kept them out of the top-two places.

Leckie's strike restored their position though, in one of a few chances during a fairly low-event game.

Despite winning twice at the tournament and making it through the group stage, Australia have struggled to create sustained attacking opportunities.

They have returned just 1.59 xG from their three games, and that will be a welcome statistic for Argentina.

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