xG Premier League Review: Gameweek 16 scorelines according to expected goals
We round up the Premier League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG (expected goals) scoreline, an Infogol fairness rating and noteworthy data points.
What are Infogol fairness ratings?
- We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
- This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.
Arsenal 3-1 West Ham
- Infogol xG: 1.93-1.04
- Fairness rating: 85.41%
- Scorers: Saka (53'), Martinelli (58'), Nketiah (69') | Benrahma (27' pen)
Arsenal maintained their cushion at the top of the table thanks to a come-from-behind win over West Ham.
The result was fully deserved, and it means the Gunners still possess their 100% record at the Emirates this season.
Mikel Arteta's side weren't as prolific in attack as we have seen so far this term, but defensively they were excellent.
West Ham were limited to just 0.24 non-penalty xG, meaning that Arsenal had a comfortable afternoon at the back.
It's the fifth straight game that the Gunners have allowed less than 0.60 non-pen xGA, highlighting their defensive strength, with Arteta's side league-leading in defensive metrics.
As for the Hammers, they continue to struggle on the road, winning just one and losing six of eight.
Aston Villa 1-3 Liverpool
- Infogol xG: 1.78-3.29
- Fairness rating: 91.58%
- Scorers: Watkins (59') | Salah (5'), Van Dijk (37'), Bajcetic (81')
Liverpool got a win to restart their Premier League season, beating Aston Villa 3-1 in what was a game in which they racked up the chances.
The Reds registered a 3.29 xGF total, their second highest of the season behind only the 9-0 win over Bournemouth (4.08).
Jurgen Klopp's side generated chance after chance, but Darwin Nunez failed to get on the scoresheet despite being on the end of the bulk of the opportunities.
The Uruguayan had six shots equating to 1.45 xG, meaning he accounted for 44% of his sides total, and that his average shot had an xG value of 0.24 - which is very high.
If he continues to get on the end of chances at the same rate, then the goals will come in their bucket loads, Nunez is just experiencing some negative variance.
For all those who suggest he is a poor finisher, it is worth noting that he scored 26 goals from 15.7 xG for Benfica last season...
At the other end, Liverpool still have a hell of a lot of work to do, shipping 1.78 xGA. Prior to the game, the Reds ranked sixth worst in the league based on xGA per game, and this performance suggests little has changed during the break.
Crystal Palace 0-3 Fulham
- Infogol xG: 0.44-2.79
- Fairness rating: 93.59%
- Scorers: Ried (31'), Ream (71'), Mitrovic (80')
Crystal Palace suffered a heavy defeat at home to Fulham, with the Eagles finishing the game with nine men.
Red cards for Tyrick Mitchell (34') and James Tomkins (57') made Palace's job very hard, but Fulham were good value for the three points, racking up the chances at Selhurst Park.
Marco Silva's side continue to impress this season, particularly in forward areas, with the Cottagers having generated an average of 1.44 xGF per game away from home this term, scoring three in three of their last five road games.
That's a feat they managed in just one of 19 away games the last time they were in the top flight.
Everton 1-2 Wolves
- Infogol xG: 1.48-1.27
- Fairness rating: 76.85%
- Scorers: Mina (7') | Podence (22'), Nouri (90+5')
Julen Lopetegui got off to the dream start as Wolves boss, as his side beat Everton thanks to a 95th minute winner.
The game was decided by one thing - big chance chance conversion.
Everton missed their two best opportunities of the match (0.37 and 0.45 xG), while Wolves took both of theirs (0.38 and 0.68 xG) in what was an efficient display.
Lopetegui's side did enough defensively, and looked a constant threat on the counter attack throughout, with this result piling the pressure on Everton boss Frank Lampard.
The Toffees have now lost six of their last eight, and remain just one point above the drop zone.
Leicester 0-3 Newcastle
- Infogol xG: 0.45-2.06
- Fairness rating: 86.86%
- Scorers: Wood (3' pen), Almiron (7'), Joelinton (32')
Newcastle picked up where they left off with a thumping win over Leicester at the King Power.
Eddie Howe's side went into the break having won seven of an unbeaten eight league games, and wasted no time on Boxing Day, going two up before the 10-minute mark.
The dominance of the victory was fully deserved, as they created by far the better of the chances, while limiting their hosts to pot-shots from distance.
Defensive solidity is a calling card of this Newcastle side, with the Magpies having allowed an average of just 0.82 xGA per game across their last nine, conceding less than 0.6 xGA in five of those contests.
Leicester were also in good form heading into this game, but were nowhere near the standard of their opponent, reverting back to the early-season Leicester defence that conceded 22 times in seven games.
Southampton 1-3 Brighton
- Infogol xG: 1.80-1.00
- Fairness rating: 49.83%
- Scorers: Ward-Prowse (73') | Lallana (14'), Perraud (35' OG), March (56')
Brighton were in cruise control throughout the afternoon at St. Mary's, inflicting a second league defeat on Nathan Jones as Southampton boss and sending his side bottom of the table.
The Seagulls were very clinical with their chances, and looked assured defensively once again, as Roberto De Zerbi's side continue to impress.
The xG totals may look swayed in Southampton's favour, and the fairness rating low, but Brighton deserved the three points thanks to a solid defensive display.
Take away James Ward-Prowse's penalty miss and resulting follow up goal, which all happened in the same action, and Saints mustered just 0.80 xG on the day despite trailing by two from the 35th minute.
Brentford 2-2 Tottenham
- Infogol xG: 2.27-1.11
- Fairness rating: 77.49%
- Scorers: Janelt (15'), Toney (54') | Kane (65'), Hojbjerg (71')
Tottenham came back from two goals down to earn a point at Brentford in the first Premier League game back after the World Cup break.
The Bees were unfortunate not to get all three points based on expected goals (xG).
According to Infogol calculations according to the quality of chances created in the game, Brentford would win the match 62.6% of the time.
As for Spurs, their defence still looks all over the place. Across their last six league games they have shipped 13 goals and allowed 1.54 xGA per game.
They have really struggled on their travels, conceding two or more in four of their last five away league games. Problems.