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xG Premier League Review: Gameweek 15 scorelines according to expected goals

By Jake Osgathorpe & Joe Townsend
Football
Mon November 14, 2022 · 2y ago

We round up the Premier League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG (expected goals) scoreline, an Infogol fairness rating and noteworthy data points.

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

  • We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
  • This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Fulham 1-2 Manchester United

Manchester United needed a late winner from youngster Alejandro Garnacho to secure three points at Fulham, though the win was fully deserved.

United generated over 3.0 xGF in the game, their highest tally of the season so far, and by some margin.

It is only the second time they have hit over 2.0 xGF this term, and the first time they had racked up 3.0+ xGF since February 2021 - the 9-0 win over Southampton.

Fulham's defence continues to be the worst in the division, with that their main area of improvement in the second half of the season.

Brighton 1-2 Aston Villa

Unai Emery saw his team register a second straight Premier League victory with a 2-1 win at Brighton.

The Villains were impressive defensively, limiting their hosts to very little in the way of chances.

Brighton's xG total of just 0.89 was in fact their worst attacking display at home this season so far.

It seems as though Emery has tightened things up very quickly at his new club, going from allowing 4.27 xGA at Newcastle to shipping just 0.55 against Manchester United and now 0.89 xGA.

The signs are good for Villa, and while Brighton were disappointing, it has still been an excellent start to the campaign.

Manchester City 1-2 Brentford

Brentford striker Ivan Toney responded to being left out of Gareth Southgate's England squad by scoring twice, including a 98th-minute winner, to seal a shock win at Premier League champions Manchester City.

It was richly deserved for the Bees too, who created far more chances according to expected goals (xG) while also creating considerably more high-quality opportunities than their opponents.

City were restricted to just one 'big chance' (35%+ probability) - Ilkay Gundogan in the 66th minute - while Thomas Frank's side created a staggering five big chances, as well as another rated at 33% by Infogol.

In fact, the 3.19 xG total racked up by the visitors was the most a Premier League team has ever created against Pep Guardiola's Manchester City at the Etihad.

Bournemouth 3-0 Everton

Bournemouth responded to speculation that Marcelo Bielsa could be set to become their new head coach by producing the most complete performance of interim boss Gary O'Neil's reign.

The Cherries created more than 2.0 xG for the first time this season, and by some margin, while also producing one of their strongest displays by restricting Everton to just 1.11 xG.

Only twice this season has an opponent created less - Southampton (1.08) in their 1-0 win at the Vitality and Aston Villa (0.69) in a 2-0 defeat there on opening weekend.

Although starting from a low bar, and still considerably negative (reflected by more orange on the below graph), O'Neil does appear to have Bournemouth trending in the right direction.

Bournemouth's expected goals for (xGF) and expected goals against (xGA) are trending in the right direction

Liverpool 3-1 Southampton

Liverpool entered the World Cup break with their strongest attacking performance since August's 9-0 demolition of Bournemouth, creating more than 3.0 xG for only the second time this season in the Premier League - their defence remains a major concern however.

Southampton's understandable buoyancy in their first match under new manager Nathan Jones is not enough to explain why a side who have performed as the fourth-worst attacking unit in the division this season were able to carve out two 'big chances' (35%+ probability) and one further rated at 27% by Infogol.

On the above graph, the more blue the better from a performance perspective.

The flattening off of the blue line (xGF) indicates that Liverpool are beginning to get back to their attacking selves, but the yellow line (xGA) remains on the rise - both are signs that a performance like theirs against Southampton is exactly what we might've expected.

Having fixed their attacking blues, Jurgen Klopp has some serious work to do over the next month to fashion a functioning defensive structure for the second half of the campaign.

Nottingham 1-0 Crystal Palace

As indicated by the low fairness rating, a 1-1 draw was the most likely and 'fair' outcome in a game of low quality from an xG perspective.

But only Bournemouth have a worse attacking process than Crystal Palace in the Premier League this season, something Patrick Vieira will be acutely aware of as we enter the mid-season hiatus.

Tottenham 4-3 Leeds

  • Infogol xG: 2.25-1.70
  • Fairness rating: 96%
  • Kane 25', Davies 51', Bentancur 81', 83' | Summerville 10', Rodrigo, 43', 76'

A thriller at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in terms of goals and action but in terms of xG analysis, simply a just home win.

Leeds will no doubt feel aggrieved to leave north London empty-handed having led on three separate occasions - ultimately Spurs' superior quality prevailed.

West Ham 0-2 Leicester

For West Ham 0-2 Leicester, see Nottingham Forest 1-0 Crystal Palace.

However the Foxes, and Brendan Rodgers in particular, do deserve credit for pulling their season out of the fire through consistent defensive stoicism. Having started by taking one point from seven games Rodgers' men have taken 16 from the next eight, conceding just three goals in that time.

But what must also be acknowledged is that Leicester have undoubtedly benefitted from some fortune during that run of fixtures.

Those three goals against came from chances equating to 9.7 xGA and their 15 goals for came from chances equating to 9.6 xGA - a staggering, unsustainable level of overperformance.

James Maddison's own personal hot streak of a season has played a pivotal role too, with the England midfielder performing at an unsustainable level by scoring seven (2.37 xG) and assisting four (2.65 xA) goals this term.

Leicester's recent run remains an impressive improvement, but the data is likely to catch up with the Foxes in the end.

Newcastle 1-0 Chelsea

Such has been Newcastle's progress under Eddie Howe that this result was no shock whatsoever, with their performance justifying the three points - as demonstrated by the exceptionally high fairness rating of 96%.

Howe's side enter the World Cup break just two points behind champions Manchester City and in the top three at Christmas for the first time in 21 years.

But while the former Bournemouth boss basks in the adulation of the St James' faithful, things are not quite working out for a another former south coast manager.

Since Graham Potter swapped Brighton for Stamford Bridge, Chelsea have averaged 1.08 xGF and 1.63 xGA per game in the Premier League - a midtable level of performance.

Results-wise this was a third straight league defeat and fourth in five games in all competitions.

Potter will have to hope his new bosses 'trust the process' enough to look beyond his own side's middling one because without a dramatic change in performance levels the Blues are heading for midtable.

Wolves 0-2 Arsenal

Nothing to see here data-wise as table-toppers comfortably beat relegation battlers.

Arsenal's straightforward victory, combined with Manchester City's surprise home defeat by Brentford in the lunchtime kick-off, means the Gunners will lead the Premier League by five points at Christmas.

For beleaguered Wolves, their new boss Julen Lopetegui cannot arrive to take charge soon enough.

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