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Frank Lampard

xG Champions League Review: Quarter-final first leg scorelines according to expected goals

By Tom Carnduff & Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Thu April 13, 2023 · 2y ago

We round up the Champions League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG (expected goals) scoreline, an Infogol fairness rating and noteworthy data points.

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

  • We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
  • This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Wednesday - Jake Osgathorpe

Real Madrid 2-0 Chelsea

Real Madrid were dominant in the first leg against Chelsea, and take a two-goal lead to Stamford Bridge.

Karim Benzema scored yet again for Los Blancos, opening the scoring in the first half with his seventh goal in his last four matches, before Ben Chilwell was sent off early in the second.

Substitute Marco Asensio scored just minutes after coming on to double Madrid's lead, but the story of the night for Chelsea was again a lack of cutting edge in attack.

The 1.09 xGF they mustered was their second lowest in the Champions League this season, with only Thomas Tuchel's sole outing in Zagreb seeing a lower total (0.91).

It follows a paltry effort at Wolves last weekend (1.02), as Frank Lampard appears to be struggling to even get the Blues creating opportunities.

Pundits may say there is still some hope for Chelsea to qualify from the tie, but the data suggests their chances of doing so stand at just 9%, and it's hard to disagree given what we've seen from the Blues of late.

AC Milan 1-0 Napoli

It was a tale of missed chances for Napoli, one early (0.49 xG) and one late (0.41) as they lost the first leg of their tie against AC Milan 1-0.

The game itself was very even and a draw was probably a fairer reflection of the chances created, but the hosts got themselves in front through Ismael Bennacer.

Napoli had no Victor Osimhen on the night, a huge miss for them, and they won't have André-Frank Zambo Anguissa for the second leg as he was sent off in the second half.

Milan will head to Naples full of confidence, as not only did they beat the Serie A champions-elect in this opening leg, but they thrashed them at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium 4-0 only a few weeks ago.

Tuesday - Tom Carnduff

Manchester City 3-0 Bayern Munich

Manchester City took a massive step towards the Champions League semi-final with a convincing 3-0 home win over Bayern Munich in the first leg.

Rodri's remarkable curling effort from distance gave the hosts a first-half lead, before City's onslaught in the second left the visitors stunned.

Bernardo Silva finished after Dayot Upamecano's mistake allowed their opposition through, followed by the prolific Erling Haaland getting involved in the scoring shortly afterwards.

Ruben Dias (0.45 xG) and Ilkay Gundogan (0.37 xG) had City's other unconverted big chances.

The German champions did see some efforts, with Matthijs de Ligt and Kingsley Coman failing to convert from close range. Benjamin Pavard's off-balance header was deemed their best opportunity of the game (0.38 xG).

It was a horror show for the away side though, with Ederson comfortably dealing with Leroy Sane's repeated efforts from distance. At the other end, it was a defensive line full of panic in possession.

Goalkeeper Yann Sommer was nearly caught with the ball at his feet on multiple occasions, while the relentless City pressing led to repeated turnovers.

It could have so easily been more, with the underlying metrics kind to Bayern based on the overall flow of the game.

The victory means that Pep Guardiola's men are all-but-through to the final four, with Bayern facing a mountain to climb when the two meet in Munich.

Benfica 0-2 Inter

Inter put themselves in a commanding position to reach the final four with a 2-0 away win over Benfica in their first leg encounter.

It was the cliched tale of two halves, with the second bursting into life after a very quiet first. At the break, both sides had managed to create just 0.19 xG between them.

A big part of Inter's overall xG tally was Romelu Lukaku's successful penalty to make it 2-0, but Nicola Barella's opener fell into the definition of a big chance - as did shots from Denzel Dumfries and Henrikh Mkhitaryan.

Benfica had significant chances of their own though. Rafa Silva (0.68 xG) and Álex Grimaldo (0.44 xG & 0.29 xG) unable to make the most when the ball fell their way.

Young striker Gonçalo Ramos had a late chance to halve the deficit (0.33 xG) but saw a similar outcome to those with attempts before him.

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