The fourth round of the FA Cup rounds off on Monday night with Tottenham looking to avoid an upset at Sky Bet Championship club Wycombe.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
2pts Tottenham to win and under 3.5 goals at 6/4
1pt Tottenham to win and under 2.5 goals at 4/1
0.5pt e.w Matt Doherty to score first at 18/1 (paying 1/3 odds 1-98 places)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Wycombe v Tottenham
- Monday 19:45 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 9/1 | Draw 5/1 | Away 1/4
This may only be round four, but Wycombe and the FA Cup really are what the competition is all about; magic.
Twenty, yes 20, years since an unknown journeyman striker arrived on a two-week contract off the back of a Ceefax - younger readers, Google it - appeal to fire the third-tier Chairboys into the semi-finals at Premier League Leicester's expense, Wycombe once again return to the FA Cup spotlight.
While there will be no Roy Essandoh at Adams Park on Monday night, perhaps Gareth Ainsworth can take the place of Lawrie Sanchez - who famously watched his team's victory on TV from the dressing room having been sent off - as the eccentric manager who oversees an against-all-odds upset.
I hate to pour cold water on that idea only moments after suggesting it, but I just cannot see a Jose Mourinho side allowing that to happen.
A much-changed Tottenham thumped minnows Marine 5-0 away from home in round three, and also beat Wycombe's Sky Bet Championship rivals Stoke and Brentford 3-1 and 2-0 respectively en route to this season's Carabao Cup final.
Mourinho knows that the cups offer a great opportunity to win Spurs' first piece of silverware since 2008, and only their second in 30 years.
There is no overstating how much of a shock it would be for the hosts to go through either. I think the 9/1 general price on Wycombe to win in 90 minutes is skinny considering they sit rock bottom, seven points from safety, in what is their first ever season as a second-tier club.
But by that same measure, it means there is serious value to be had in backing Mourinho's men to book their fifth-round spot if we look away from the straight outright.
The same goes in the unders/overs market. Seven of Wycombe's past nine fixtures have involved over 2.5 goals, with three of those also hitting the over 3.5 mark, but I just don't see Spurs running roughshod over Ainsworth's side.
Opposing the bookies, who have Tottenham/over 2.5 goals priced at 1/2 across the board, presents real opportunity.
How often have Mourinho's men gone ahead and sat back in recent weeks? They scored one or fewer times in half of their last 10 games in all competitions, and in the Premier League have been consistently pegged back or overhauled (see Fulham, Wolves, Liverpool and Palace during that run of fixtures).
Tottenham/under 2.5 goals and under 3.5 goals, then, offer a respective 4/1 and 6/4 - both prices I'm happy to get behind.
Trying to anticipate team selection is never easy for a cup tie, but one man who is certain to start for Spurs is Carlos Vinicius. But after his hat-trick against Marine, tipped at 5/1 by Tom Carnduff, the Brazilian is a heavy odds-on to find the net on Monday.
Wycombe's weakness at set-pieces is where we can look to make some money.
They have the third-worst record in the Championship having conceded nine goals from dead-ball situations this season. That is something Mourinho will surely have identified in the build-up, especially having done exactly that against Sheffield United last weekend, when Serge Aurier headed home inside five minutes against the top-flight's worst defensive set-piece outfit.
Matt Doherty is as close to another dead-cert to start in place of Aurier, and although the former Wolves man has struggled to settle in since his summer switch from Molineux, he knows where the back of the net is.
Only an excellent save denied him a first Tottenham goal in the previous round, and before arriving in north London the Irishman had scored 16 goals for club and country across the past two seasons.
He is 18/1 to score first with bet365, a price that I think is incredibly generous. Taken each-way (paying 1/3 odds 1-98 places) we're getting anytime odds of 6/1.
Those prices are simply too good to turn down.
Wycombe v Tottenham best bets
- Tottenham to win and under 3.5 goals at 6/4
- Tottenham to win and under 2.5 goals at 4/1
- Matt Doherty to score first e.w. at 18/1 (paying 1/3 odds 1-98 places)
Odds correct at 1730 GMT (22/01/21)
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