Sky Bet Championship and the points-per-game argument: Is it fair to use the method to decide promotion?
The uncertainty about the Sky Bet Championship remains with the season on pause for the foreseeable future.
The resumption of the 2019/20 campaign continues to be in the balance due to the current coronavirus pandemic.
Reports on Friday emerged stating that the preferred contingency plan, should the season not be resolved on the pitch, involves promoting the current top-two, while those in the play-off positions still get a chance at promotion.
The talk of points-per-game has become louder after France's Ligue 1 became the first major division to decide their standings through this method.
It hasn't come without its problems though after Lyon warned they could launch legal action after missing out on the European spots.
Rudi Garcia's side have been placed seventh after the campaign was cut short. It means they fail to qualify for Europe, which the club claims could cost them tens of millions of Euros.
If the Championship elected to go down the same route, how would the final table look and who would be promoted?
Tom Carnduff dissects the method and asks if it is fair to take the current standings as they are to decide who gets a shot at reaching the Premier League.
Sky Bet Championship: Average points-per-game
- Leeds - 1.92
- West Brom - 1.89
- Fulham - 1.73
- Brentford - 1.62
- Nottingham Forest - 1.62
- Preston - 1.51
- Bristol City -1.49
- Millwall - 1.46
- Cardiff - 1.46
- Blackburn - 1.43
- Swansea - 1.43
- Derby - 1.38
- QPR - 1.36
- Reading - 1.30
- Sheffield Wednesday - 1.30
- Birmingham - 1.27
- Stoke - 1.14
- Huddersfield - 1.14
- Middlesbrough - 1.11
- Wigan - 1.11
- Hull - 1.11
- Charlton - 1.05
- Luton - 0.95
- Barnsley - 0.92
How would the final table look on PPG?
- Leeds - 88.2pts
- West Brom - 87pts
- Fulham - 79.5pts
- Brentford - 74.5pts
- Nottingham Forest - 74.5pts
- Preston - 69.5pts
- Bristol City - 68.4pts
- Millwall - 67.1pts
- Cardiff - 67.1pts
- Blackburn - 65.8pts
- Swansea - 65.8pts
- Derby - 63.4pts
- QPR - 62.2pts
- Reading - 59.7pts
- Sheffield Wednesday - 59.7pts
- Birmingham - 58.4pts
- Stoke - 52.3pts
- Huddersfield - 52.3pts
- Middlesbrough - 51pts
- Wigan - 51pts
- Hull - 51pts
- Charlton - 48.5pts
- Luton - 43.6pts
- Barnsley - 42.3pts
We've left the decimal points in here but rounding up or down would create a more realistic looking table.
Of course, positions don't change given that every team has played a total of 37 games but it does give an idea of what the table would have looked like based on the rate teams were going at prior to the break.
Is it fair?
Leeds
- Gameweeks spent in the top-two: 30/37
West Brom
- Gameweeks spent in the top-two: 28/37
The primary discussion will be around whether or not it is deemed fair to promote Leeds and West Brom with nine games of the campaign remaining.
The fact is that the current top-two are the best two teams in the division. Clubs will have their own interests to protect, but if promotions are honoured this season, Leeds and West Brom simply can't be denied spots in the Premier League.
Out of the 37 gameweeks played in the Sky Bet Championship, Leeds have been in the top-two for 30 of them. The corresponding number stands at 28 for West Brom.
The duo became the top two sides in the division for the first time on gameweek 12. Leeds dropped out on gameweeks 14, 15 and 16, with Preston taking their spot, but they were only held out on goal difference.
Since gameweek 17, Leeds and West Brom have been the top-two in the Championship and currently boast comfortable margins over the play-off positions. With goal difference, Fulham need a three-game swing in their favour to take one of the current automatic promotion places.
The early weeks may have seen the positions switch around between a number of teams. However, the fact that Leeds' lowest position this season is 5th after gameweek 11, and that left them just two points off top, highlights how they have been title contenders for the entire campaign.
Swansea and Sheffield Wednesday are the only others sides who have held top spot in the division. Neither has managed that since gameweek 10.
But what about the play-offs?
The reported preferred contingency plan for the EFL would involve the current teams in the play-off positions playing out a shortened version, at neutral venues, to decide who gets the third promotion spot.
That would mean Fulham face Preston, while Brentford take on Nottingham Forest, and the likelihood is that these fixtures would be one-off games, as opposed to over two legs.
This portion of the table is potentially where the most fierce debate will be held. Those in the top-two clearly deserve to be awarded promotion, but what about the play-offs?
Just six points separates Preston in sixth and QPR in 12th. Given the number of fixtures remaining, and the fact that teams have to play each other who are in that race, those positions could easily change around.
It leaves the football authorities in a difficult position. A number of clubs have a convincing case that they are in the running and deserve their chance at promotion.
It's unfortunate for the majority, but there needs to be a cut-off point somewhere. This is far from a usual scenario and there aren't necessarily guidelines to advise on what to do.
In France, Ligue 2 promotion was awarded to their current top-two, although Lens sitting a single point above Ajaccio did create some murmurs of unfairness.
Fulham and Brentford have had good records since the opening months of the current campaign so little argument could be made against them keeping their spots in an altered play-offs.
That sixth spot is where the biggest battle can be found. However, Preston have been a top-six side for 25 of the 37 gameweeks played, including across the last seven matches.
For Bristol City, they've been in the top-six after 13 of the 37 matches, while Swansea can boast better with their figure standing at 18. It's worth pointing out though that the last time that happened was after their 28th game.
Gameweeks spent in the top-six:
- Fulham: 25
- Nottingham Forest: 25
- Preston: 25
- Swansea: 18
- Brentford: 16
- Bristol City: 13
- QPR: 4
- Derby: 2
- Millwall: 1
- Cardiff: 0
- Blackburn: 0
Millwall have been in just once. That came after a 1-0 victory over Sheffield Wednesday in their third game of the campaign.
Cardiff and Blackburn, the teams in ninth and 10th, have failed to break into the top-six at any point this season. For Derby, they haven't been in it since gameweek two while the same can be said for QPR after gameweek 13. They'd only been in for three matches prior to that.
Brentford, currently fourth, may have only been in the top-six after 16 games but they have failed to be outside of those positions since matchday 21.
Of course, this is all not to predict how the table will look if the final nine games are played. In the here and now though, Preston have the strongest case out of any of the play-off chasing sides for their involvement.
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