World Cup qualifying: Free betting tips and odds for Thursday's games, including France v Netherlands
Andy Schooler has a pair of fancies for tonight's World Cup qualifiers, including France to cover a one-goal handicap against the Netherlands.
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None of the British and Irish teams play on Thursday when the latest round of World Cup qualifying action gets under way.
However, that doesn’t mean there’s nothing worth following or, more to the point, backing.
France v Netherlands is arguably the game of ‘matchday seven’ with a huge amount at stake.
Remember only the group winners are guaranteed a place at next summer’s finals in Russia – and Group A is currently topped by Sweden.
France sit second on goal difference, three points ahead of the Dutch, who really can’t afford to lose this game. If they do, there’s every chance the find themselves six points behind both the Swedes (who head to Bulgaria) and the French with three games to go. With third place no good to anyone, that would essentially be game over for the Oranje.
Given the strength of the hosts, you have to fear the worst for the Netherlands, who missed out on Euro 2016 when they finished fourth in their group; their malaise is long and deep.
Add the two qualifying campaigns together and they have won seven, drawn two and lost seven. Of greatest concern is the away record – three wins, one draw and four losses with just nine goals scored and 12 conceded. Their trips have included games in Kazakhstan, Latvia, Luxembourg and Belarus.
There has been chopping and changing both among the managerial and playing staff - Robin van Persie has now been recalled - but a solution is yet to be found and current boss Dick Advocaat’s problems have mounted further ahead of this game with a host of defenders unavailable.
Virgil van Dijk, Nathan Ake, Daryl Janmaat and Jeffrey Bruma all miss out and France do not look like opponents you want to face with a weakened backline.
The talent they have at their disposal is frightening and it is no wonder they have been well backed to win the World Cup outright, never mind do anything in qualifying.
Led by Paul Pogba, who has started the season superbly at Manchester United, they also boast one of the world’s leading marksmen in Antoine Griezmann. Then there’s all the rising talent coming through, from Kylian Mbappe to Ousmane Demeble (not picked for this one). You can throw in Lacazette, Lloris, Kante – the list goes on and on.
The stat which perhaps best sums up the strength in depth boss Didider Deschamps has available is that four of the starters from the Euro 2016 final are not even in his squad for this game.
Of course, while we rave about France, they are not the finished article. They did lose that Euro 2016 final to Portugal and were also beaten in their last qualifier, conceding an injury-time winner in Sweden.
However, they responded to that loss by beating England 3-2 despite playing the majority of the game with 10 men and they will be determined to take a big step towards Russia here.
They are 4/7 to win the game but you can get 8/5 about them winning by two or more which looks a better way to go.
The Dutch lost 2-0 in Iceland and 3-0 in Turkey in their Euros campaign, while they’ve already been beaten 2-0 in Bulgaria in this group.
What helps this bet is the Netherlands' need to gain at least a point. They don’t look good enough to simply play for a draw and if France can make a relatively early breakthrough, the visitors will need to come forward in search of an equaliser, a move which could easily leave gaps to exploit.
France are well equipped to do just that.
While the marquee game is in Paris, the best bet of the night may well come in somewhat less vaunted surroundings of Stade Josy-Barthel in Luxembourg.
The hosts, who face Belarus, may have collected only one point in Group A but they been an awful lot more competitive than most other sides at the bottom of the European pools.
Defender Maxime Chanot was not stretching the truth when he said “results don’t reflect our performances” and Luxembourg are not a team who will simply sit back and look to frustrate, whoever they are playing, a la San Marino or Andorra.
Speaking earlier this year, Chanot added: “Fans who last saw us play four or five years ago would be surprised, I think, because we don’t hide when we’re out on the pitch anymore, or play with 10 men at the back,
“Of course, we’re still Luxembourg, and we’re aware we’re going to struggle in some matches, but our approach has completely changed compared to a few years’ back.”
That statement is reflected in the goals-scored column – Luxembourg have six in their six games so far, by far the best tally of those sitting bottom of a group.
They’ve managed to find the net in home games with the Dutch and France, while on their travels they banged in three in Bulgaria and also netted in a 1-1 draw with the Belarusians in the reverse fixture.
Only the Dutch in Rotterdam and table-toppers Sweden have kept them out and given they now face the second-weakest team in the group on home soil, odds-against about them scoring at any time has to be worth taking.
Belarus are not a very good side and on the road they’ve been particularly poor. They’ve lost all three away qualifiers so far, losing 4-1 in the Netherlands, 1-0 in Bulgaria and 4-0 in Sweden. They’ve also lost friendlies in Macedonia (3-0) and Switzerland (1-0) in 2017.
I’m quite tempted by some of the other prices about the hosts – 9/2 draw no bet and 6/4 double chance both appeal – but I’ll keep it simple and just go for them to find the net at some point in the 90 minutes. The price just looks too big to me.
Posted at 1600 BST on 30/08/17.