World Cup final tips: Argentina v France best bets, predictions and preview
The 2022 World Cup final sees Argentina take on France. Tom Carnduff has found a total of five best bets to back.
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Football betting tips: World Cup final
2.5pts Lionel Messi to have 1+ total fouls at 7/10 (Unibet)
1.5pts Nicolas Otamendi over 78.5 passes at 13/8 (bet365)
1pt Enzo Fernandez over 70.5 passes at 7/4 (bet365)
0.5pt Enzo Fernandez over 80.5 passes at 13/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Nahuel Molina to score anytime at 28/1 (QuinnBet)
So, here we are. France are hoping to become just the third nation to retain the World Cup trophy as they take on Argentina in the 2022 final at the Lusail Stadium in Qatar.
Didier Deschamps has overcome seeing key figures missing both pre and during the tournament to push Les Bleus to the final game, while Argentina have bounced back from a shock defeat to Saudi Arabia on the first matchday to go unbeaten since.
It's a rare occasion of two finalists going head-to-head having lost a game at the tournament. Context is key to both though - France had already qualified with top spot basically secured and Argentina were very unlucky in that opening contest.
The odds of 10/11 on either option in the 'lift the trophy' market accurately reflects how balanced these two teams are. This is a genuinely intriguing final, and one where you will find a whole range of opinions on how it will be decided.
Even the Infogol model based on performance is struggling to separate the two teams in a major way - France are favoured by a tiny 2% margin.
La albiceleste deserve huge credit for how they've navigated the knockout stages though, with both Lionel Scaloni and his team able to successfully adjust their own style to match that of their opponent and succeed in key battles.
Jake Osgathorpe tipped Argentina at 7/1 in his outright preview and I've agreed from the start that this is their tournament - the showings throughout has only grown that confidence.
It's particularly on the defensive side of things, where they've conceded just 2.47 xGA across their six games - completely different to the 7.37 xGA that France have endured up until this stage.
That will be a key factor if Lionel Messi - tipped by Liam Kelly at 12/1 for the Golden Ball pre-tournament and now a very clear 1/5 favourite - will get his dream ending and lift the World Cup for his country.
If they are to do that, you imagine that it'll be in a game where France allow Argentina to have the majority of the ball. Recent rounds have proven this is a route to success for Les Bleus.
They had 43% of the ball against England, with Morocco seeing 61% despite the fact they had seemingly been happy to go without to get to the semi-final.
Not only that, but Croatia saw 66% possession in the 2018 final - this is a comfortable way for France to play and there's no reason to believe they will move away from this here.
Croatia had 528 passes in that game too and I'm happy to expect Argentina to have plenty of opportunity to move the ball around. With that in mind, there's a few pass lines that provide appeal.
The first of which focus on a centre-back, and taking NICOLAS OTAMENDI OVER 78.5 PASSES at a price of 13/8.
Otamendi has seen at least 80 attempted passes in five of his six games at the tournament, with the only game that fell short being the semi-final win over Croatia.
If Argentina encounter a passive enough France side, Otamendi will be given plenty of time to complete little passes to teammates, and backing him to hit 79 in the 90 minutes looks a solid play.
The other Argentina player to focus on is ENZO FERNANDEZ, with both OVER 70.5 PASSES at 7/4 and OVER 80.5 PASSES at 13/2 the two lines to focus on.
He's expected to sit in the Argentina midfield once again, and he should be the one to drop deeper to take the ball from the defensive line.
Fernandez is another player who has excelled in the passing metric, with at least 70 attempted in three of his four starts at the tournament.
He saw a huge total of 100 in the win over Australia in the round of 16, while there were 94 as they beat Poland in their final group game. The 70.5 line feels safer, but it's possible that 80.5 comes in too.
In the 2018 final, Croatia's defensive midfielder Marcelo Brozovic saw 98 attempted passes, with 84 of those completed as the game was sorted in normal time.
A lot of the focus will be on Messi for obvious reasons, and we can expect him to contribute in attack by providing a constant threat in the forward areas.
He's scored five goals (5.53 xG) from 28 shots at the tournament, but he has posted high numbers in another category and that opens up value in this contest.
At a best price of 7/10, it's worth backing MESSI TO HAVE 1+ FOULS in the 90 minutes.
The forward has seen at least one foul in four of his six World Cup appearances, with games against the Netherlands and Mexico having a huge total of three in each.
The occasion also plays a part here, with both sides desperate for victory and that should lead to some overstepping the mark at times. It'll also be nervy, so fouls will be common.
There were 26 fouls in the last final, with Argentina also committing 15 in their semi-final win over Croatia. The same figure was posted against the Netherlands - all three of Messi's fouls in that game came in normal time.
As it's a big occasion, I'm happy to gamble on a big-priced goalscorer and taking NAHUEL MOLINA ANYTIME at a best price of 28/1.
The right-back found the net in the quarter-final against the Netherlands, and Theo Hernandez sitting on the left side of the France defence should see Molina have opportunities to get in behind.
Hernandez is strong going forward but questionable defensively, and if he commits himself further up the pitch then there will be gaps to exploit down Argentina's right side.
Molina has demonstrated he's capable of making the most of these chances, and there is confidence there for him to capitalise at a big price.
This looks like a contest that will need more than 90 minutes to decide who the winner will be, it's two evenly-matched teams who more than deserve their spot in the final.
Argentina have shown their flexibility to match the opposition and that could put them in a great position as they look to be crowned world champions once again.
Those looking for a result should keep in mind the main markets will be 90 minutes only, and there is little difference in the odds to lift the trophy.
Instead, there are a number of players who provide appeal in various other markets, maintaining interest in different areas of the game.
It'll be an intriguing battle between two top quality teams, and a World Cup final that can hopefully match the action we've seen on the pitch across the last month.
Argentina v France best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Lionel Messi to have 1+ total fouls at 7/10 (Unibet)
- 1.5pts Nicolas Otamendi over 78.5 passes at 13/8 (bet365)
- 1pt Enzo Fernandez over 70.5 passes at 7/4 (bet365)
- 0.5pt Enzo Fernandez over 80.5 passes at 13/2 (bet365)
- 0.5pt Nahuel Molina to score anytime at 28/1 (QuinnBet)
Score prediction: Argentina 1-1 France (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1320 GMT (16/12/22)
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