Argentina captain Lionel Messi lifts the World Cup

World Cup: Did Argentina 'deserve' to win and who was most lucky and unlucky?

By Joe Townsend

Football

Wed December 21, 2022 · 2y ago

'You get what you deserve' and 'you earn your own luck' are just a couple of the old cliches we hear regularly trotted out.

Argentina and Messi deliver for Sporting Life followers

Victory for Argentina and Lionel Messi's clinching of the Golden Ball saw Sporting Life followers land 7/1 and 12/1 antepost winners respectively from our outright and player of the tournament previews
It follows the Sporting Life team's correct calling of Italy to win Euro 2020 at 11/1

Alongside the 'league table never lies' they truly are irksome phrases to anyone aiming to take a more measured, calculated look at what has happened, is happening and most crucially what then could happen in the future.

Over a league campaign, the idea that 'only the result matters' is folly in the long-term - performances failing to justify the results is ultimately unsustainable.

After major tournament success or failure, knee-jerk reactions and criticisms are commonplace, often without the appreciation for the fact that such a small sample size - in the group stage a maximum of three games, in the knockout stage just one - allows for far greater variance than a 38-game club season.

Shocks can happen. And it's not always fair.

Like any other knockout competition, results really do trump all else at the World Cup. Ironically though, the side who lost their opening game to Saudi Arabia ended up lifting the trophy.

And they deserved to.

Overreaction to Saudi shock

Our xG verdict following Saudi Arabia's shock 2-1 win over Argentina was unequivocal - relax everyone:

"Sorry to kill the buzz, but victory for the underdogs was incredibly fortunate based on the quality of chances created in the game, firstly highlighted by the fairness rating of 37.55% - by far the lowest at the tournament and one that will take some surpassing.

"Not only did the Saudis allow 2.30 xGA, but they managed to rack up just 0.15 xGF, making it the worst attacking display of any team we have seen so far. We calculate that the Green Falcons had just a 1.0% chance of scoring twice in the game, with it more likely (3%) that Argentina scored six times from their chances.

"Overall, based on the chances created, there was just a 2.6% chance of Saudi Arabia winning the match.

"Big shock, big luck."

Lionel Scaloni's men weren't derailed by that result, coming back to beat Mexico 2-0 in a cagey contest and comfortably dispatching Poland by the same scoreline in a match that should have ended with a much wider winning margin.

Not everyone was so resilient - or fortunate.

Germany and Uruguay the most unfortunate casualties

Germany's players had every right to scratch their heads as they packed up to leave Qatar at the end of the group stage having won the xG battle in all three of their matches.

They created a staggering 11.5 expected goals for (xGF) in the group stage - 29% more than any other team.

But missed chances, an eight-minute lapse of concentration against Japan and the Blue Samurai's upset win over Spain sealed their highly unlikely fate.

While the German FA seem to have looked more closely and 'trust the process' under Hansi Flick, who has now won 11, drawn six and lost just two of his 19 games in charge, in Uruguay things have played out very differently.

Diego Alonso looks on after Uruguay are knocked out

Diego Alonso's team shared a tight goalless draw with South Korea and deservedly beat Ghana in Group H.

Sandwiched between those results they were beaten 2-0 by Portugal in a game which saw a Bruno Fernandes cross go directly into the goal before victory was sealed by a highly contentious stoppage-time penalty, awarded by VAR for handball.

Uruguay marginally won the xG battle in that contest, but remove Portugal's penalty and they did so by a significant margin.

Where Germany thrived as an attacking force, the South Americans were imperious defensively - they allowed just 0.61 non-penalty xG per game in the group stage, giving up just one non-penalty 'big chance' (0.35 xG+) across those three fixtures.

Alonso and his country's federation agreed to part ways after their group-stage exit. His record? Twelve games, eight wins, two draws, two defeats.

Knee-jerk.

Rounding up the rest

Going hand in hand with Uruguay and Germany's misfortune was of course the opposite for South Korea and Japan.

In Group C it was Poland who fell on the right side of variance and Mexico the wrong, in Group D Australia got the fortune and Tunisia can feel aggrieved.

Virgil van Dijk's Netherlands were poor throughout the World Cup

There is even a case to be made for whether the Netherlands warranted getting out of Group A at all, let alone topping it and coming within spot-kicks of knocking out Argentina and reaching the semi-finals.

Louis van Gaal's side's underlying numbers were desperately poor throughout the tournament, only marginally better than another side that never should have gone beyond the preliminary stages of the tournament despite the widespread acclaim they received.

Croatia the luckiest of the lot

Everyone loves an underdog, which undoubtedly played a major part in the fulsome praise sent in Croatia's direction after they backed up their final appearance of 2018 with a third place finish.

But this tournament's Croatians were a million miles from four years ago, when their performances and underlying numbers fully justified a place in the final.

The parallels drawn with that run are understandable. Just as they did in Russia, Croatia came through shootouts in both the round of 16 and quarter-finals but that is where the similarities end.

They went from being a dominant, high level side to one hanging in matches and hoping for the best.

Only a staggeringly wasteful display from Romelu Lukaku in Croatia's final group game against Belgium kept them in the World Cup. They went on to lose the xG battle in all of their remaining matches.

In their seven fixtures in total, they only created more than 1.0 xG twice and prior to victory over Morocco in the third-place play-off their only genuine win at the tournament came over Canada.

Lucky.

You don't always get what you deserve...

One of Croatia's victims were Brazil, who exited the World Cup having displayed by far and away the most impressive underlying numbers.

It matched both the eye test and the markets too, with it almost universally accepted that Tite's men were proving their favourites tag to be correct.

Their expected goal difference (xGD) of 2.18 per game reflected a well balanced team at both ends of the pitch. But as is the case in knockout football, variance can be cruel.

While not on Brazil's level in terms of impressive performances, England - and perhaps even Portugal - may have progressed from their quarter-final ties on another day.

You don't always get what you deserve.

...but Argentina just managed to

Which brings us back to Argentina.

Along with the other three sides to reach the semi-finals they provided us with the biggest sample size (seven) of matches, which although still incredibly small to base any kind of forecast on is still (obviously) more to make an accurate judgment on.

Scaloni's team won the xG battle in every single one of their matches - the only other sides to do so were Germany (3) and Brazil (5).

No opponent came close to creating more than 1.0 xG against Argentina (they averaged 0.41 xGA) with the 0.66 Australia managed in the group stage the most anyone managed.

Until the 80th minute in the Lusail Stadium on Sunday that is, when all hell broke loose.

Nicolas Otamendi's conceding of a penalty meant that in that one single action Argentina had allowed more xG (a penalty always amounts to 0.80) than they had in any of their previous six matches - including the 120 minutes they played against the Netherlands.

Even at full-time the xG totals read 1.77-1.09 in Argentina's favour such was their dominance, with the holders restricted to just 0.29 non-penalty xG.

Although as we watched on breathlessly, extra time may have appeared to have been utterly helter-skelter, again it was Argentina who dominated from a non-penalty xG perspective with the South Americans creating 1.68 to France's 0.40.

Over the tournament as a whole they averaged 2.22 xGF in normal time, allowing only 0.50 xGA. Consistently they were far superior to their opponents.

While quite rightly the final will be remembered for Mbappe's heroics in vain in direct competition with Messi's own efforts to drag his team to glory, ultimately it was Emiliano Martinez who proved to be the hero, first with his save at the death, and then in the shootout.

It absolutely should be remembered as Messi's World Cup. But this Argentina triumph was about more than Messi.

The best team won.