By now, Gareth Southgate will have submitted a preliminary squad to FIFA ahead of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. But that’s the easy bit.
The England manager was allowed to pick as many as 55 players for this first stage, which pretty much means anyone and everyone who has come close to the England squad in recent years has been marked down. The hard decisions lie ahead.
There are just 32 days left before England get their World Cup underway against Iran on November 21 and there are no warm-up games, which means not only is the tournament crashing into view but even the players will feel under-prepared when the time comes. That probably means there won’t be any major surgery by Southgate.
Nevertheless there are some major dilemmas for the England manager to mull over.
The main issue is of Southgate’s own making. He has been slow to evolve the England squad, hesitating over the need to bring in talented young players while holding too tight to those who have been in the starting line-up for several years – and the Premier League has perhaps moved on without him.
That’s why Harry Maguire, John Stones, and Luke Shaw – 60% of his back five – are not currently first choice at their clubs, where upgrades have been made.
Southgate has so far resisted calls to improve his defence with the in-form Fikayo Tomori rarely getting a chance, although Eric Dier has recently come back into the fold.
England are not blessed in defence and there is a lot of logic in keeping things consistent given the lack of game time together at international level.
Nevertheless, if Maguire and Shaw are still on the United bench in November then Southgate has a huge problem; there seems almost no chance that England will succeed at this tournament if their back three is led by someone who isn’t match fit, yet Southgate has not used the Nations League to build towards an alternative.
As for the wing-back positions, Reece James’s injury means Trent Alexander-Arnold should now make the final cut, although Kieran Trippier will be the starter on the right.
Things are a little more optimistic higher up the field, although his front three is far from settled.Raheem Sterling has been in poor form for Chelsea but continues to get the nod because of his excellent performances in an England shirt, and although Southgate is often rewarded for his loyalty to the senior players England’s winless run means it is time for a change.
Southgate has alternated between Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden recently but he ought to be starting both players behind Harry Kane. Saka and Foden are among the best performing players in the Premier League this season and neither should be on the bench, the former repeatedly showing his worth in an England shirt and the latter a generational talent being misused by Southgate.
To complicate things further, Mason Mount is struggling to find a spot while Jack Grealish remains a problem player for Southgate.
At this late stage, it will probably be Sterling and Kane plus one other – but can Southgate really afford to put all the creative pressure on those two for yet another tournament?
The last England squad was worryingly light on midfield options. Kalvin Phillips’ injury meant just five of the 28-man squad picked to play Italy and Germany were listed as central midfielders, and even though Southgate will mostly play with a two in the middle he needs to add another body here.
Right now, the quality simply isn’t there beyond the excellent Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham, and if England go deeper into the tournament they will need better options.
The obvious choice is Conor Gallagher, who has taken on a more prominent role at Chelsea since Graham Potter was appointed.
Gallagher’s brilliant tackling and intelligent positional play means he can easily slip into a team and his combative energy is just what England are missing, particularly with Kalvin Phillips injured and Jordan Henderson another one struggling for form.
Ruben Loftus-Cheek is also playing well at Chelsea, while Harvey Elliott has impressed as an attacking number eight for Jurgen Klopp this season. Again, had Southgate acted faster in bringing through the best young English players then Elliott and Gallagher would already be integrated. Hopefully there is still time to include both of them.
We can say with confidence that Southgate will utilise a 3-4-3 formation against the bigger nations, as he did throughout the Nations League. He knows that conservative football is the way to go at international level, and as usual England will hope to grind out results by playing on the back foot.
There are many who will argue England ought to pick a third central midfielder in order to control that area, since it was losing the midfield battle that cost England in the World Cup semi-final against Croatia and Euro 2020 final against Italy, but that argument is redundant.
Southgate isn’t going to suddenly move to a back four in the knockouts.
However, Southgate will be mulling over the best strategy for the group stages, which England may find very difficult if the recent performances against Hungary in the Nations League are anything to do by.
Southgate had been using a 4-2-3-1 when England play inferior opponents and are forced to dominate the ball, but is that out of the window after the 4-0 humiliation against the Hungarians?
Aside from Gallagher and Elliott, Southgate should also be keeping an eye on Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho, James Maddison, and Joe Gomez – who all missed out on the last England squad.
It looks as though time has run out for Rashford, especially with Ivan Toney looking certain to back up Kane, but Sancho is a key part of Erik ten Hag’s revival at Man Utd and he would surely be a useful impact player on the right.
Maddison has had a good season despite Leicester’s problems and he is the kind of intelligent creator England lack in the middle, while Gomez’s outstanding performance against Manchester City may have got Southgate’s attention.
Ultimately, Southgate’s answer to all five questions is likely to be whatever feels safest: pick the tried-and-tested players; keep relying on Sterling and Kane; leave Gallagher and Elliott at home; use a 3-4-3 in every game; and no surprise call-ups.
But what Southgate sees as safe options may prove to be huge risks, as England, looking tired and stale, become paralysed by the manager’s conservatism.