Jake Pearson previews the Premier League meeting between Wolves and Leeds, providing his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Wolves to take the most corners at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
Wolves remain just five points behind fourth-placed Arsenal in the Premier League, which in itself is an achievement at this stage of the season, but the fact that the Gunners have three games in hand on their top-four rivals means a spot in next season's Champions League is well and truly Mikel Arteta’s men’s to lose.
A place in the Europa League is still up for grabs for Bruno Lage’s men though, especially as Wolves appear to have overcome a barren patch that saw them lose three successive matches by beating Watford and Everton recently.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Wolves 23/20 | Draw 12/5 | Leeds 23/10
They welcome a Leeds team that secured their first Premier League win in eight matches as they beat Norwich 2-1 on Sunday, but it wasn’t smooth sailing by any means for Jesse Marsch’s men.
Leeds missed a plethora of chances to increase their 1-0 lead before Norwich equalised in the 91st minute, only for Joe Gelhardt to turn home Raphina’s cross three minutes later to send Elland Road into euphoria.
That victory moved Leeds four points clear of the relegation zone, but they are far from out of the woods yet, and with Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal all to play before the end of the season, they do need to start putting more points on the boards sooner rather than later.
There is plenty at stake for both teams in this fixture, but our selection is going to come from the corner market, with WOLVES TO TAKE THE MOST CORNERS available at an attention grabbing price.
Wolves have lost the corner battle in six of their 14 matches at Molineux this season, but it is important to note which teams those defeats came against – and this is one of the major reasons why using simple historical averages to inform betting can sometimes be misleading.
They took fewer corners than Leicester (who have average the fifth-most away corners this season), Southampton, Chelsea and Liverpool (who sit fourth, third and second respectively in terms of average corners won per match), as well as Newcastle and Manchester United (Newcastle the exception but Man United have taken the sixth-most corners when on the road this term).
It is clear to see how their home corner average has been skewed by the manner of opponents they have faced.
Leeds, meanwhile, have been relatively sporadic in their corner taking, but recently, perhaps predictably, their corner count has aligned rather closely to the amount of chances – or xG (expected goals) – they have created in a match.
They took more corners than Leicester and Norwich, both games they won the ‘xG battle’ in, while against Aston Villa, who limited Leeds to very few opportunities, they struggled to rack up many corners.
This is all relatively intuitive, the more chances created, the more corners are likely to follow, but with Wolves’ defensive record being what it is – the fourth best in the division, while their xGA process is also in the top seven – expect Lage’s men to keep Leeds at bay, and therefore limit the amount of corners conceded.
Wolves v Leeds best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Wolves to take the most corners at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Wolves 1-0 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1210 GMT (16/03/22)
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