Wolves host Brighton in Sunday's early kick-off and Jake Pearson has previewed the match, providing a couple of best bets as well as a score prediction.
Premier League betting tips: Wolves v Brighton
1.5pts Wolves to win at 5/2 (BetVictor)
1pt Both Teams To Score ‘NO’ at 9/10 (SBK)
Wolves played well against West Brom last week, Nuno Espirito Santo’s faith in his youngsters repaid by Vitinha in particular, who was extremely impressive on the ball.
Not only did Vitinha create Fabio Silva’s goal with a wonderful backheel into the path of Nelson Semedo, he was at the heart of everything positive Wolves did through out the match.
Roman Saiss’ header came from a Vitinha corner, Nelson Semedo’s chance came from a great run and pass from the Portuguese playmaker, while Vitinha also unleased a rocket of a shot himself that Sam Johnstone was forced to parry wide.
Ruben Neves and Joao Moutinho have been the model of consistency in the Wolves midfield since the Old Gold’s promotion back to the Premier League, but Vitinha offers something different, and could hold the key to Nuno’s side adopting a more positive approach to games going forward.
Nuno has spoken in recent weeks about his desire to transform his Wolves side into a more possession-based, attack-minded outfit, but this Brighton team look perfectly set up for the Wolves of the past three seasons to exploit.
Brighton produced a good performance to beat Leeds 2-0 last week, finally taking a couple of the many chances they have created this season, something that has plagued Potter’s men on numerous occasions throughout the campaign.
That result ended a run of four games without a win for Brighton, and all but secured their place in next season’s Premier League, though a win here would guarantee safety for the Seagulls.
Brighton have performed much better than their league position and points tally would suggest this season, something backed up by Infogol’s xG model, though you don’t really need stats to realise such things, but their possession-based approach to matches and willingness to throw bodies forward, could leave them susceptible to the Wolves counter-attack.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
- xG process is the rate at which a teams creates and concedes chances
Undoubtedly Brighton have played some very nice football this season, and whether they have got their just rewards or not is a matter of personal opinion, but their price to win football matches week on week is remarkably short.
Brighton are favourites to win away at Wolverhampton, and not just by a small margin, they're 5/4. For context, that is a shorter price than Everton, Leicester, Leeds, West Ham and Aston Villa have been to win at Molineux this season.
In fact, only Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal and Liverpool have been sent off at a shorter price than Brighton to win away at Wolves this campaign.
The 5/2 available about a WOLVES WIN is the sixth-biggest price they have been at home this season, and is too big to pass up.
Back against goals
It is also worth considering that these two sides both sit in the bottom five in terms of average match goals (team goals + opponent goals) this season, with Brighton matches averaging 2.18 goals, and Wolves matches 2.32.
Also, Wolves have a 21% win-to-nil ratio, while Brighton’s is 18%, which may not seem a lot, but when you factor in the actual amount of games each side has won, those ratios jump to 64% for Wolves and 75% for Brighton, meaning when these two sides do win, it is often without conceding.
Wolves are the joint-sixth lowest scorers at home this season, while only four teams have netted fewer on the road than Brighton, which all points towards a low-scoring affair, and means a price of 9/10 with SBK for BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ makes plenty of appeal. The 17/20 on offer with BetVictor also represents a small amount of value.
Wolves v Brighton best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Wolves to win at 5/2 (BetVictor)
- 1pt Both Teams To Score ‘NO’ at 9/10 (SBK)
Score prediction: Wolves 1-0 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 1100 BST (07/05/21)
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