Football betting tips: Europa League
1pt Wolfsberger to take a penalty at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Wolfsberger to miss a penalty at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
Wolfsberger v Tottenham
- 17:55 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 6/1 | Draw 10/3 | Away 2/5
Tottenham will be hoping that the Europa League will provide a welcome distraction to their current issues, with Jose Mourinho's side in a battle for a top-six spot in the Premier League. In Wolfsberger, they face a team who have also seen mixed results in recent weeks.
The 'hosts' (this game is being played in Budapest) are big outsiders, and even with Spurs' issues, a team sat sixth in the Austrian top-flight shouldn't be able to get past the North London side. We just don't know given how unpredictable they are though, Mourinho's men have lost five of their last six (although one of those was in extra-time).
It is form that is far from ideal and they have struggled to keep out opposition teams in away trips in this competition this season. All five of their games on the road have seen at least one goal conceded while they managed just one win from three in the group stage.
Tottenham have seen a huge seven goals conceded in their last two games (90 minutes only). Their defensive record accurately sums up their current issues and Wolfsberger will fancy their chances of at least one.
Both teams to score is available at 5/6 with Sky Bet and that looks a decent play to near enough double your money, but the potential for the Austrian side to have the opportunity to score from a penalty is well worth investigating in this contest.
Three of Tottenham's last four games in all competitions has seen the opposition strike from the spot (Chelsea, Everton and Manchester City) and the fact the bookmakers have 6/5 on a penalty being awarded here shows how one is fancied. However, that price is influenced by Tottenham and the 11/2 on WOLFSBERGER TO TAKE A PENALTY looks too generous given the recent record.
We can also look at how strict the referee will be based on his showings so far this season. Turkish official Ali Palabiyik will be the man in the middle and he isn't afraid to show a card. His last nine games in all competitions have seen at least four yellows shown. Of those nine, eight had five or more, five had six or more while four games saw red cards.
Palabiyik was also the referee when Chelsea were awarded two penalties against Krasnodar in the Champions League while his other appearance in Europe's top competition also saw a penalty given. In Turkey, he is averaging a penalty awarded every two games in the Super Lig.
Spurs' defensive problems combined with an official who likes to point to the spot could well be a recipe for disaster, that is also alongside the fact that Wolfsberger have seen a penalty awarded in their favour in two of their last three. The 11/2 on the hosts taking a penalty at some stage across the 90 minutes looks far too generous.
At a huge 25/1, it's also worth a small play on WOLFSBERGER TO MISS A PENALTY. Michael Liendl came on as a substitute and failed to convert in the win over Admira last time out and his involvement from the bench could mean the hosts are without their regular taker if the referee points to the spot.
Even with potential penalty drama, Tottenham will be left feeling disappointed if they come away from this game with anything less than a win. Away goals could be crucial particularly with their record of conceding on the continent. There is no value in the outright market though, meaning the penalty markets provide the best bets in this game.
Score prediction: Wolfsberger 1-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Wolfsberger v Tottenham best bets
- Wolfsberger to take a penalty at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
- Wolfsberger to miss a penalty at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct at 1715 GMT (16/02/21)
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