Liverpool transfer news: Do Reds need defensive additions in January?
1934, 1934, 1932, 1934, 1930, 1931, 1935. The list of Liverpool’s heaviest away defeats is dominated by one decade. It had not needed updating for quite some time. Until the reigning champions, the team who got 99 points last season, went to Villa Park in October and lost 7-2.
They return on Friday in a different competition and with a different context. Now all three of Jurgen Klopp’s senior specialist centre-backs – first Virgil van Dijk, then Joe Gomez and most recently Joel Matip – have been injured.
And yet Liverpool, who had conceded 11 league goals when the final whistle blew at Villa Park, have only let in 10 since then. In that time, only Manchester City have been breached less often.
It may not feel it when they have gone three league games without a win, but it feels a triumph of making do and makeshifts. Liverpool have had 10 different centre-back combinations in 17 league games. They ended at Southampton on Monday with a back four consisting of three midfielders, in Fabinho, Jordan Henderson and James Milner, plus a left-back.
And yet, while Van Dijk’s season probably ended 11 minutes into their fifth game, the Merseyside derby, they have conceded more goals with arguably the world’s finest centre-back on the pitch than without.
Liverpool’s record feels paradoxical. Gomez performed well after Van Dijk was sidelined but Liverpool have not kept a clean sheet in a game he has started this season. In contrast, all five of their league clean sheets, including at Chelsea in September, have come with Fabinho at the heart of their defence.
He has had to shepherd rookies through games. Liverpool beat Tottenham with Fabinho partnered by Rhys Williams, who was on loan at non-league Kidderminster last season. He has played three matches alongside Nat Phillips, who had never previously played English league football.
If Fabinho is a midfielder playing at the back, he has turned that into an advantage. No one normally operating as a centre-back has made more tackles this season (Luke Ayling, who has nine more, sometimes plays there for Leeds).
Fabinho’s assurance in possession is also a benefit; he has made the fifth most passes in the division, one behind Ayling and more than any central defender. His pass completion rate of 91.9 puts him seventh overall among regulars and third among centre-backs, behind Ruben Dias and Thiago Silva.
A statistical comparison with Van Dijk’s figures for the last two seasons actually flatters Fabinho; the counter-argument is that the Dutchman read the game so well he rarely needed to tackle.
One area of difference is that whereas Van Dijk famously was not dribbled past at all in the 2018-19 Premier League, Fabinho has been dribbled past 0.9 times per game. Van Dijk’s positioning and magnetic effect also meant he tended to make a lot of clearances – 4.3 per game last season. Now only Phillips (5.0, but from just three games) and Gomez (4.0) are above 2.5.
But there is a broader question if Liverpool’s defending is not as watertight as it was. Statistically, they peaked in 2018-19, conceding 22 times from an expected goals against of 29.15. That rose to 33 from an xGA of 39.57 last season.
Now their expected goals against since the Villa game is 15.05, only the seventh best in the division. If the fact they have only conceded 10 reflects on Alisson’s ability to come to Liverpool’s rescue – post-shot expected goals suggest he has saved Liverpool 2.0 goals already this season while his save percentage of 73.7 is among the best in the league – it also suggests opponents are creating better quality chances.
It offers a reason to buy in January. So does the precariousness of Liverpool’s position. There are times when they have felt one injury away from crisis and Matip is notoriously injury-prone; they may face Manchester United with the midfielders Fabinho and Henderson together at the back as they did in Monday's defeat at Southampton.
One of those linked, Tyrone Mings, could face them again on Friday. A boyhood Liverpool fan, he feels a less likely recruit simply because he is a left-sided centre-back and Van Dijk should slot back there next season.
Another, Conor Coady, is more famously a Liverpool supporter. He came through the Anfield academy but made only two senior appearances for the club before leaving for Huddersfield Town who, in turn, sold him to Wolves.
The irony, perhaps, given that Fabinho is a converted midfielder, is that Coady may be too much of one. Barring a handful of appearances in a back four for Wolves and England, the Liverpudlian’s outings in defence have invariably come in a trio, when the other two have assumed more of the defensive duties. The stopper Willy Boly averages more tackles, interceptions and clearances than Coady this season.
Liverpool’s brand of front-foot defending can demand different qualities. They have made the second-most tackles in the attacking third, whereas Coady’s Wolves, who have a lower block, have made the fourth most in their defensive third. Liverpool catch opponents offside far more than Wolves.
- Sky Bet: Conor Coady to sign for Liverpool in this transfer window is 4/1
- Sky Bet: Tyrone Mings to sign for Liverpool in this transfer window is 5/1
It underlines that Liverpool’s defenders tend to be different, which in turn may make Klopp more reluctant to sign someone accustomed to a different style of play. Perhaps their most advanced role suits those, like Fabinho and Matip, with a grounding in midfield. Yet if Van Dijk seemed irreplaceable, there is a case for calling Fabinho one of the best centre-backs in the league now. Whether or not he would actually call himself a centre-back.
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (05/01/21)
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