Will high-flying Fulham fall out of European football contention?
- Published prior to Monday's 3-2 defeat to Brentford
To greatly overachieve in football, or any sport for that matter, a fair amount of variables have to go in your favour.
It's certainly been the case for Fulham, which shouldn't be taken as a demeaning observation, sitting a lofty seventh in the Premier League table and making their way into the quarter-final stage of the FA Cup in midweek, outperforming almost everyone's expectations as we reach March.
In fact, Tuesday's 2-0 win over Leeds neatly encompasses the breaks needed for a relegation candidate in the summer to succeed so considerably, a microcosm of their 2022/23 campaign.
Leeds missed an ample number of scoring opportunities against a Fulham defence that displayed the same vulnerabilities in the early parts of the season, without too much punishment.
Fulham actually held the highest expected goals against (xGA) total in the league before the World Cup, conceding 32.2 xGA across 15 games — a substantial 4.3 xGA more than any other side at that point.
The 26 actual goals conceded from such chances was a huge help in matches decided by narrow margins, a good explanation behind holding seventh place at the pause in play, despite being 14th in the expected points table.
Of course, factors like game state do make a difference to the numbers, but it was obvious that Fulham were a little fortuitous not to concede more.
Boss Marco Silva, a nominee for Manager of the Month in February, did acknowledge the weakness, striving for his team to be more solid at the back.
To his credit, the Cottagers have been in the 10 Premier League matches since, allowing 14.0 xGA.
Such is the strange and unpredictable world of sport, Fulham have outperformed those metrics to an even greater level than they did pre-World Cup, conceding only five goals in their last 10.
The 20 points garnered from a possible 30 has enabled Silva's side to stay in seventh.
Improved defensive numbers have, of course, had an effect on their attacking process, with both xG trendlines intertwining and taking a bit of a dive recently.
Fulham's expected goals for (xGF) per game average has dropped from 1.57 before the break to 1.22 since the restart on Boxing Day, which brings us nicely back to the microcosm that was their FA Cup fifth round victory.
Another of the variables that can lead to overachievement is the dispatching of low-probability chances at opportune moments.
Manor Solomon can attest to that with his recent rise to fame, sealing Fulham's advancement with a fourth spectacular goal in as many games against Leeds last Tuesday.
In the three Premier League fixtures prior, Solomon goals from unlikely spots — 0.25 xG v Forest, 0.05 v Brighton and 0.03 xG v Wolves — earned his team points in unconvincing performances.
Again, this is not meant to demean their success.
Recruitment has to be outstanding, especially so for a newly-promoted club, and it has been. João Palhinha has been a revelation as a midfield destroyer, while Andreas Pereira and Willian have been excellent additions. Just another one of the many variables required to go well.
Fulham should be proud that they are performing at a solid Premier League level, but the Cottagers do need to improve further if they wish to sustain positive results and stay in the fight for Europe.
Unfortunately for Fulham, they are prime candidates for regression.
The bookmakers clearly agree, with Fulham set at a price of 1/66 with Sky Bet to finish outside of the Premier League's top six.
Still, if they do suffer the expected regression over the course of the next 13 matches, Silva and his side deserve plaudits for completely avoiding the wide-open relegation battle on return to the top tier.
Fulham's 2-0 FA Cup win against Leeds featured all of the weaknesses that could have hurt Fulham this season. And yet, they advanced.
They'll need to advance as a team to repeat the feat next season, but overachievement this term is an incredible base to build from.
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