Will Antonio Conte get Harry Kane firing again for Tottenham?
Last season, no one scored more Premier League goals than Harry Kane. This campaign, 90 players have.
They include Fred and Ben Mee and Ezri Konsa and Marc Guehi. It seems one title defence has already failed. Kane will not keep the Golden Boot.
He averages a goal every 1181 minutes in this season’s Premier League, compared to one every 134 last season and one every 48 on international duty this season.
But if that is partly explained by the presence of San Marino in England’s qualifying group, Kane has been one of the top flight’s great underachievers in front of goal.
The difference between his solitary strike and his xG (expected goals) total of 3.36 means only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Trincao have underperformed by a higher figure.
While Tottenham’s fortunes have improved under Antonio Conte – they have won three successive league games, scoring seven goals, which is as many as they got in their nine previous matches – in a way his have worsened.
But while he has been more profligate in the new regime, it is at least a sign he is getting the chances. Kane’s four league games under Conte had brought a total xG of 1.49 and no goals. He also has an xA (expected assists) of 0.96 and no assists.
These are early days, but under Conte, Kane’s numbers are up: Nuno Espirito Santo’s defensive football and Spurs’ struggles muted him. Now he is at least having more chances.
His xG per 90 minutes for the Italian is 0.37, compared to 0.25 for the Portuguese, his xA per 90 of 0.24 an improvement on 0.18 beforehand.
The discrepancy between them is still greater when it is factored in that Kane’s xG in Conte’s first league game, the stalemate at Everton, was only 0.11, dragging his average down. His highest xG in a match this season was 0.64 in the 2-1 win over Leeds.
Three of his seven highest figures have come for Conte.
Kane’s volume of shots has increased, too. There have only been four league games this season when he has had at least three: versus Arsenal and Aston Villa for Nuno and Leeds and Norwich for Conte. He has had 13 shots in four matches for the Italian (an average of 3.25) after only 19 in nine for the Portuguese (2.11).
It was damning of Nuno that Kane only had one shot in the six-yard box under him: he has had two under Conte, though neither went in.
There are other signs his impact is increasing. He made six shot-creating actions against Brentford, the only game this season he has had more than three. He made six dribbles against Leeds, the only match when he has managed more than four.
And yet it is still worth noting how far below his peak Kane is. He averages 0.08 league goals per 90 minutes this season; his lowest in a Premier League campaign of 11 or more games is 0.63.
Conte may have Kane improving, but there is still a long way to go before he is back to his best.