Why Man City should be concerned about their visit to Chelsea on Saturday
When Chelsea beat Manchester City in the Champions League final four months ago it felt like the beginning of a new rivalry that was set to define English football for the foreseeable.
But four months on, as Thomas Tuchel and Pep Guardiola prepare to face each other for the first time since Porto, a sense lingers of the torch being passed.
Man City look like the wobbly version of themselves that we saw over a 12-month period prior to the blitz in the second half of 2020/21. Chelsea look stronger than perhaps we have ever seen them.
The hosts start as favourites for good reason and defeat for Guardiola at Stamford Bridge would have huge ramifications for both clubs; confirming Chelsea’s title credentials and hinting at a decline taking hold at City, who - with Liverpool at Anfield a week later - would be looking down the barrel of ten points from the open seven Premier League games.
If that was to happen it would be their worst start to a season since 2008/09, the year they were bought by the Abu Dhabi Group. It is imperative Man City avoid defeat. The odds are stacked against them.
City’s passivity against Saints likely to be replicated
Man City were oddly lackadaisical in possession during the 0-0 draw with Southampton, struggling to pass with purpose through the lines thanks to the visitors’ narrow 4-4-2 which, as ever, surrounded the midfield by sitting in a compressed midblock and engaging in a well-timed press in the middle of the pitch.
Ralph Hasenhuttl teams always form a ring around the opposition midfield to force harmless passes into wide areas and slow things down.
Consequently, Jack Grealish running to the byline was the only real creative threat for Man City, while off the ball the lack of energy led to defensive problems.
City didn’t press with much togetherness, leaving gaps for Southampton to easily pierce through the centre on the counter-attack - an issue exacerbated by the use of an ageing Fernandinho alone in central midfield.
It was reminiscent of Man City games between August 2019 and November 2020, when they won 101 points from 50 Premier League matches.
It is relevant here because Chelsea will defend and attack in much the same way as Southampton. Tuchel has deployed a surprisingly conservative shape against bigger teams since taking charge, from the Champions League final - where they held 40% possession - to the 3-0 victory over Tottenham Hotspur last weekend.
In a rigid and disciplined defensive shape, the hosts should be able to force stale City possession and then hit them on the break.
Midfield battle defined by Chelsea formation
Like the game in Porto this will no doubt be tense and fricative, a game squeezed by both managers, but the difference here is Romelu Lukukau - who offers Chelsea a more direct counter-attacking option to take advantage of City’s lacklustre midfield.
If Fernandinho (or Rodri) sit alone at the base of midfield in a 4-3-3, then Chelsea’s inside forwards may be able to find space on the outside, dropping into the pockets around the Brazilian to receive straight passes through the lines and set Chelsea away.
However, this was not how the Champions League final played out, in which City were more conservative, and indeed we should not predict a game of many chances on Saturday.
Tuchel’s half-time switch from a 3-4-3 to a 3-5-2 changed the pattern of the game at Spurs last Sunday, which may tempt him to again pack the midfield.
Kevin De Bruyne’s return from injury points to the need for a third central midfielder, while it would be harsh to leave out N’Golo Kante, leading to an even more compact and tightly-structured midfield battle at Stamford Bridge.
The game will still likely be refined by Chelsea counter-attacks, but they will be relatively infrequent. Lukaku needs to be razor-sharp.
Grealish threat gives City hope
It will be a tight game, then, and one that neither manager wants to lose.
Chelsea’s deep(ish) defensive line does not bode well for Guardiola’s side given their lack of a striker - they failed to score in the only two games this season in which they faced a strong defence - but there is some hope in the performances of Grealish.
Grealish has quickly become an important player from the left, using his trickery and dribbling skills to break the defensive lines while City’s passing loses its speed.
A lot will rest on whom Tuchel picks at right wing-back; Reece James or Callum Hudson-Odoi would give Grealish a clear advantage, while Cesar Azpilicueta is the safer (and most likely) option. Their battle on City’s left will be an important tactical feature of the game.
But if Chelsea can hold their own on this flank there is every reason to assume they will collect the three points, condemning Guardiola to his worst start to a season as Man City manager… and with a trip to Anfield up next.
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