Euro 2020: Are Wales peaking in time for the European Championship?
Wales were winless in their four friendlies before Euro 2016 writes Joe Rindl. Failure to win against France and Albania changes nothing as they prepare for their opening match against Switzerland.
Wales faced Sweden in their final friendly before the 2016 Euros. They were rubbish. Outclassed from the first minute to the last in a 3-0 loss.
Ultimately though Wales made the semi-finals of the summer's tournament and Sweden finished bottom of their group. Don't look too much in to friendlies folks, it's about who wants it more on any given day. Five years ago, Wales had their eyes in the prize and it seemed like nobody could stop them.
Can Wales rekindle fighting spirit?
When reliving Wales' 2016 European Championship campaign most think of Hal Robson-Kanu’s amazing Cruyff-turn goal against Belgium. Few will remember a patriotic, call to arms in a throwaway line in a pre-match press conference.
It came from Gareth Bale ahead of Wales' group game with England. “I think we’ve got a lot more passion and pride about us than them,” he said. The then two-time Champions League winner essentially declared Wales wanted it more. England would go on to win the match, but Wales would top the group.
In hindsight his analysis was correct. The dragons had a spirit and togetherness England and many other sides lacked.
When Sam Vokes made it 3-1 to Wales against Belgium, guaranteeing progression to the final four, the players, supporters and coaching staff - which included a sports psychologist - erupted with joy. It was there for all to see. Passion: tick. Pride: tick.
Fast-forward five years and many are questioning whether Wales’ ethos from their last international tournament remains. Captain Ashley Williams retired in 2020 and manager Chris Coleman walked away after failing to qualify for the World Cup in 2017.
Former Manchester United winger Ryan Giggs was named his successor and despite no full-time managerial experience, and Wales Women’s manager Jayne Ludlow criticising his appointment, things got off to a rosy start with Euros qualification sealed early.
But in April 2021, Giggs was charged with actual bodily harm and common assault against two women, as well as coercive and controlling behaviour. Though he denied the charges in court, assistant Rob Page has been at the helm since November and will take charge this summer.
Can Wales rely on Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey?
Do Page and the old guard have the ability to take the embers of the 2016 campaign and spawn another underdog run? Wales are in a group with Italy, Switzerland and Turkey. Infogol’s model sees them having a 50% chance of making it to the knockouts. Around 32% of the time they get eliminated at the round of 16 stage.
In Bale and Aaron Ramsey Wales boast two world class players most nations can only dream of. Problem is, the pair aren’t exactly having the season of their lives.
Bale’s underlying Premier League numbers do at least offer some joy. The Wales skipper played just 10 matches, plus 10 as a sub and scored 11 goals despite having an xG of just 6.51. Bale creates goals out of nothing. But will his lack of game time be an issue?
Ramsey has had a frustrating campaign too. There have been very few starts for Juventus this term and the former Arsenal midfielder remains in the ‘needs to improve' camp. The stats don’t lie, Ramsey has averaged just 0.36 xG and 0.27 xA in Serie A this season.
Wales players to watch
But this is Wales, a team that prides itself on being greater than the sum of its parts. In the 2016 tournament Bale and Ramsey scored a combined four goals. Neither found the net after the group stages and yet Wales still managed four knockout goals.
To analyse Wales’ chances you need to examine their supporting cast. There’s a new generation waiting in the wings hungry for a first appearance at a major international tournament.
Starting at the back, defenders Ethan Ampadu and Joe Rodon both impressed in national team appearances. Sheffield United's Ampadu, on loan from Chelsea, started five European Championship qualifiers with a tackle completion rate of 75% and a stunning pass completion rate of 84%. Joe Rodon may have struggled for minutes at Tottenham, but in a red shirt he’s helped Wales to four clean sheets from six matches this term.
Moving to midfield and Cardiff’s Harry Wilson, on loan from Liverpool, has had a fantastic 12 months, netting seven goals from an xG of 6.57 in the Championship, as well as producing 11 assists from an xA of 7.51. I expect him to be joined by Leeds’ Tyler Roberts in the final squad, a player who has played in midfield as well as his favoured up front position for his Premier League club.
And out wide, Manchester United’s Daniel James may only have three Premier League goals this season, but he has been a superstar for Wales. The 23-year-old netted crucial, composed winners against Finland in the Nations League and the Czech Republic in World Cup qualifying in the last eight months.
If Wales were to go on another deep, historic run it is these tournament debutants, not Bale and Ramsey, who will provide the difference. The ability is there. Fingers crossed for pride and passion. Pob lwc.
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