Which managers will survive the Premier League season?

Sack race: Who will be the first Premier League manager to lose their job during the 2019/2020 season?

By Chris Hammer

Football

Fri August 09, 2019 · 5y ago

"You are a sacked man. You've been sacked. You're the subject of a sacking, I want you off these premises in 10 minutes. Knowing me, Alan Partridge, sacking you, Glenn Ponder. A-ha!"

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Managerial sackings aren't perhaps as brutally delivered as that, but quite often they seem to be handed out for a lot less than "getting lippy" with the man who gave you a big break on a chat show.

Alan Partridge sacks Glen Ponder on Knowing Me Knowing You

Loyalty goes out of the window after a run of poor results and no amount recent success can make any boss immune for a significant time. You're only as good as your last five to 10 games, so it seems.

Last season Slavisa Jokanovic had brilliantly won promotion with Fulham but a summer of reckless rebuilding meant an unsettled squad couldn't gel and after a run of six defeats in November, he was subject of the first sacking - despite being 20/1 before a ball was kicked and 25/1 in September.

Jose Mourinho started the season as 3/1 favourite but ended up being bronze medalist in the sack race behind 12/1 shot Mark Hughes while the man who replaced him at the Old Trafford wheel, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, heads the betting this time.

Here we run through all the Premier League managers, their Sky Bet odds to be first out, whether we think they'll be in serious danger of 'winning' the sack race and if they can last the season.

* Odds and transfer activity correct at 0900 BST on 09/08/2018. Signings in 'summer spending' include loans)

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Manchester United

Sack race odds: 6/1
2018/19 league position: 6th
Summer spending: £143.10m (Three signings)
Biggest signing: Harry Maguire (£80m)
Sack race contender? Yes
Will he last the season? No

If the turgid end to last season - which gave some sensible United fans a reality check that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer isn't some kind of managerial Messiah after all - is anything to go by, this campaign will be another to endure.

They should really have waited until the summer to make a proper appointment and deep down the club will know this so it will come as no surprise to anyone if they wield the axe by early winter if they're outside the top four and failing to inspire.

Can the arrivals of Harry Maguire, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Dan James really help turn things around?

Jamie Carragher season preview

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Steve Bruce - Newcastle

Sack race odds: 7/1
2018/19 league position: 13th
Summer spending: £61.56m (Five signings)
Biggest signing: Joelinton (£40m)
Sack race contender? Yes
Will he last the season? No

Newcastle's 15 permanent managerial changes in Premier League history has only been surpassed by Southampton and Mike Ashley, who has been responsible for nine of those, will be in no mood to buck that trend if the Magpies are flying dangerously close to relegation.

When you consider how the revered Rafael Benitez got this squad as high as 13th, you have to wonder how Steve Bruce will fare, even with the big-money arrival of Joelinton at his disposal. Newcastle fans are worried for a reason.

Graham Potter - Brighton

Sack race odds: 8/1
2018/19 league position: 17th
Summer spending: £59.18m (Five signings)
Biggest signing: Adam Webster (£21m)
Sack race contender? Yes
Will he last the season? No

Graham Potter arrives at Brighton knowing fourth from bottom is most certainly not an achievement any more after Chris Hughton was harshly sacked for it.

He's made three 'big money' signings - relatively speaking - in Adam Webster (Bristol City), Leandro Trossard (Genk) and Neal Maupey (Brentford) but will they give the Seagulls that star quality needed to soar up the table?

Brighton struggled for goals last season and were turgid to watch under Hughton, and while Potter is expected to bring a more attacking style of play, that won't be good enough if the results are poor.

Roy Hodgson - Crystal Palace

Sack race odds: 8/1
2018/19 league position: 12th
Summer spending: £6.84m (Five signings)
Biggest signing: James McCarthy (£3m)
Sack race contender? Yes
Will he last the season? Yes

Crystal Palace enjoyed a pleasingly mid-table season by their own mediocre standards but have failed miserably to strengthen their squad this summer.

It's certainly possible the Eagles get off to a start as similarly bad as the one that cost Frank DeBoer his job two years ago, so you'd have to put Roy Hodgson down as a realistic contender in the sack race.

However, Palace don't seem to have ideas above their station and will quite happily allow Roy Hodgson to get the best out of his ranks for another campaign as long as things don't go disastrously wrong.

This is his fifth Premier League job but only two of his others resulted in the sack (Blackburn and Liverpool) so we know he's a manager that tends to gets more time than most while a mid-table club with no real ambitions of winning trophies is right in his wheelhouse.

Marco Silva - Everton

Sack race odds: 9/1
2018/19 league position: 8th
Summer spending: £107.91m (Seven signings)
Biggest signing: Alex Iowbi (£27.36m)
Sack race contender? Yes
Will he last the season? No

Everton's owners and fans should be demanding Marco Silva at least manages to challenge for the top six after the money spent and their general expectations.

They can't sack Sam Allardyce for mid-table nothingness and accept the same under anyone else, so Silva will be in big trouble after 10 games if they are well off the pace.

Eighth last season seems OK but their meagre tally of 54 points was only five above 12th and their manager still has plenty of critics to prove wrong.

Dean Smith - Aston Villa

Sack race odds: 11/1
2018/19 league position: Promoted via play-offs
Summer spending: £133.74m (12 signings)
Biggest signing: Wesley (£22.5m)
Sack race contender? No
Will he last the season? Yes

It seems so very harsh to see Dean Smith as short as 11/1 after all that he's achieved in such a short space of time at club he supported as a boy.

Villa fans have taken Smith to their hearts after inspiring the team to promotion via the play-offs - which came after a record-breaking winning run towards the end of the regular season - so he'll definitely get some leeway even after an awful start.

However, as previously stated, no manager is immune especially when a club as big as Villa demands a Premier League existence, so if they are getting cut adrift by November, he'll have to go.

That should technically has to make him a 'contender' but ultimately with the money he's spent on making a decent squad stronger, they should be fine and he'll still be in the hotseat this time next year.

Chris Wilder - Sheffield United

Sack race odds: 12/1
2018/19 league position: Promoted in 2nd
Summer spending: £42.75m (10 signings)
Biggest signing: Oli McBurnie (£17m)
Sack race contender? No
Will he last the season? Yes

How bad a start to the season must Sheffield United have for them to sack the managerial hero that is Chris Wilder?

One or two points from 10 games? Even in that unlikely scenario, I'm not sure the Blades will be that desperate to seek a change given they're in a division beyond what they expected this time 12 months ago.

As long as they give a good fight, Wilder could easily keep his job despite a relegation this season.

Frank Lampard - Chelsea

Sack race odds: 12/1
2018/19 league position: 3rd
Summer spending: £40.50m (One signing)
Biggest signing: Mateo Kovacic (£40.50m)
Sack race contender? No
Will he last the season? Yes

Roman Abramovich has pulled the trigger on 10 permanent managers since his era began back in 2003 so time isn't a luxury he offers.

That said, given Frank Lampard's legendary status and the fact he's not been able to spend any money, surely there will be a greater level of understanding shown if Chelsea get off to a lacklustre start.

Although his lack of experience is being questioned in many quarters, he should inspire the younger players, have the fans on his side and be operating with slightly lower expectations than those that weighed on his predecessors' shoulders.

Sean Dyche - Burnley

Sack race odds: 14/1
2018/19 league position: 15th
Summer spending: £8.46m (Five signings)
Biggest signing: Jay Rodriguez (£5m)
Sack race contender? No
Will he last the season? Yes

Sean Dyche's odds are only as short as 14/1 because the lack of quality and depth in the squad means they could feasibly get off to a rotten start and subsequently put him in danger.

However you could have said that before each of the previous three top-flight seasons, in which he's brilliantly kept them up in each despite spending very little, and that never happened.

Why? Because he's a very good manager who gets the very best out of his players. Long may it continue.

Daniel Farke - Norwich

Sack race odds: 14/1
2018/19 league position: Promoted as champions
Summer spending: £3.75m (Seven signings)
Biggest signing: Sam Byram (£800k)
Sack race contender? No
Will he last the season? Yes

Daniel Farke worked wonders to not only earn promotion with Norwich against the odds, but soar to the Championship title... but surely the squad still needs strengthening?

Their transfer activity has been minimal and unless this changes before the window closes they could find themselves up against it by the time winter - and panic - sets in.

That said, I can see them sticking with their man throughout the season as long as there's hope he can get them out of it. If it goes terribly wrong, however, he's gone.

Javi Gracia - Watford

Sack race odds: 16/1
2018/19 league position: 11th
Summer spending: £34.65m (Six signings)
Biggest signing: Ismaila Sarr (£27m)
Sack race contender? Yes
Will he last the season? No

This time last year, the little known Javi Gracia was along the favourites in the sack race but Watford got off to a flying start before ending up in the safe confines of 11th.

However, they lost seven of their last 11 games, including each of the last three, and it took until deadline day to truly splash the clash with the arrival of Ismaila Sarr. Will he raise the spirits of Hornets fans?

If they pick up where they left off then Gracia is in grave danger of being the first out of the door.

Eddie Howe - Bournemouth

Sack race odds: 16/1
2018/19 league position: 14th
Summer spending: £50.81m (Five signings)
Biggest signing: Arnaut Danjuma (£16m)
Sack race contender? No
Will he last the season? Yes

It seems as if Eddie Howe will have a job for life at Bournemouth unless he ever decides to leave again.

Four seasons have gone by since promotion and they only really diced with relegation once, when finishing 16th in their first ever Premier League campaign.

The impressive Howe has bolstered his squad further this summer and another year bubbling in mid-table feels almost as certain as Man City and Liverpool finishing in the top two.

Manuel Pellegrini - West Ham

Sack race odds: 16/1
2018/19 league position: 10th
Summer spending: £71.73m (Six signings)
Biggest signing: Sebastien Haller (£36m)
Sack race contender? No
Will he last the season? Yes

West Ham were patient enough to stick with Manuel Pellegrini after four successive defeats at the start of last season and their faith was eventually rewarded with a sound 10th-place finish.

The owners and fans will be wanting more this time after splashing the cash once again this summer, so if the big-money recruitment of Sebastien Haller and Pablo Fornals can deliver goals, then top half is well on the cards, especially given how well they finished the last campaign.

Ralph Hasenhuttl - Southampton

Sack race odds: 18/1
2018/19 league position: 16th
Summer spending: £49.14m (Three signings)
Biggest signing: Danny Ings (£20m)
Sack race contender? Yes
Will he last the season? No

Not only does Ralph Hasenhuttl look like the Governor in the Walking Dead, but he may also struggle to survive a second season before being 'killed off'.

The Saints, who have made a record 17 permanent managerial changes in Premier League history and five in the last six years, flirted with relegation last season thanks largely to the mess Mark Hughes left them in and the Austrian didn't exactly set St Mary's alight either.

A lot will rest on whether Danny Ings and Che Adams can bang in the goals but one must have forgotten what it's like to score and the other is taking a step up in class from the Championship.

Southampton lost patience with Hughes after just eight months in charge so don't be surprised if the board take swift action if they're struggling in the relegation zone by October or November time.

Unai Emery - Arsenal

Sack race odds: 18/1
2018/19 league position: 5th
Summer spending: £137.16m (Six signings)
Biggest signing: Nicolas Pepe (£72m)
Sack race contender? No
Will he last the season? Yes

Fifth would have been seen as a failure under Arsene Wenger, but there was some level of understanding that Post-Wexit was never going to be easy in this transition spell for the Gunners.

However, Unai Emery has splashed the cash and now has Arsenal's five most expensive signings ever in his ranks so there's no excuse this year.

The only way he'll be a dramatic first managerial casualty is if they are worryingly off the top four pace after 10 games but they should be fine given the quality at their disposal.

Mauricio Pochettino - Tottenham

Sack race odds: 18/1
2018/19 league position: 4th
Summer spending: £102.60m (Four signings)
Biggest signing: Tanguy Ndombele (£54m)
Sack race contender? No
Will he last the season? Yes

Mauricio Pochettino didn't need to spend any money last summer to finish in the top four and reach the Champions League final, so perhaps they can expect improvement after splashing over £100m this time.

Most of that has been on two player of course - Tanguy Ndombele and Ryan Sessegnon - and Pochettino would perhaps have wanted to make more star signings, but don't underestimate the strength of an already talented squad that's gelled in comparison to their rivals.

The biggest chance of the Argentine winning this race is if he walks away from it.

Nuno Espirito Santo - Wolves

Sack race odds: 20/1
2018/19 league position: 7th
Summer spending: £87.30m (Eight signings)
Biggest signing: Raul Jimenez (£34m)
Sack race contender? No
Will he last the season? Yes

Wolves realistically couldn't have done much better on their return to the Premier League last season and although it'll be a hard ask to match their lofty position of seventh while juggling the Europa League commitments, it would take quite some disaster for Nuno to get the chop.

He's spent almost £90million on five players to give his squad extra depth while his popularity with the players, fans and the club's hierarchy means he's as safe as a mid-table manager possibly could be.

Brendan Rodgers - Leicester

Sack race odds: 25/1
2018/19 league position: 9th
Summer spending: £95.49m (Four signings)
Biggest signing: Youri Tielemans (£40m)
Sack race contender? Yes
Will he last the season? Yes

Considering Claude Puel was sacked mid-season when Leicester were 12th in the table after a poor run of form, you've got to feel Brendan Rodgers might be a tad overpriced at 25/1.

The former Celtic boss has splashed serious cash on Youri Tielemans and Ayoze Perez this summer to strengthen a pretty decent squad but it's hard to see them achieving a much higher place than where they finished last time.

As long as they're bubbling around the top half - which they should - then Rodgers will keep his job for the duration but given their expectations, a dodgy start could put him in trouble.

Pep Guardiola - Manchester City

Sack race odds: 80/1
2018/19 league position: Champions
Summer spending: £150.30m (Six signings)
Biggest signing: Rodri (£63m)
Sack race contender? Yes
Will he last the season? No

The only way Pep Guardiola could win this race if he suddenly goes on another sabbatical.

Jurgen Klopp - Liverpool

Sack race odds: 100/1
2018/19 league position: 2nd
Summer spending: £1.71m (Two signings)
Biggest signing: Sepp van den Berg (£1.71m)
Sack race contender? No
Will he last the season? Yes

Currently regarded as an Anfield God after finally breaking his trophy duck at the end of an unforgettable season, he could soon be downgraded to demigod if a lack of signings to recharge a potentially fatigued squad results in a sluggish start to the new season.

They can't afford one of those to keep up with Manchester City, who have continued to spend in the pursuit of a third successive Premier League title, so pressure may soon then start to build on the cup competitions.

All that said, Liverpool would surely still stick by Klopp in a trophyless season as long as they finish in the top four.