What will Erik ten Hag bring to Manchester United?
If Erik ten Hag was under any illusions about the size of the job he is signing up for, after Tuesday night’s 4-0 defeat to Liverpool the scales will have fallen from his eyes.
Returning Manchester United to the summit of English football is likely to take at least five years, and once you consider United’s super-club status, the toxicity running through its core, and the level of expectation, it is arguably the hardest job in world football.
We cannot know whether Ten Hag will be able to handle aspects of the role that fall outside of the day-to-day coaching; the aspects that chewed up David Moyes, Louis van Gaal, Jose Mourinho, and now Ralf Rangnick.
Certainly the plight of the current interim manager suggests motivating the players and handling the intense scrutiny of the position does not come easy for managers without a strong reputation in the English game.
Elite coaching comes at a cost
But we can make accurate predictions about the style of football Ten Hag will look to instigate and the players who will best suit the Dutchman’s model.
And the first thing to say, before delving into the specifics, is that training this summer is going to come as a major culture shock.
It is now widely known that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer did not do much tactical work, or really any ‘coaching’ to speak of during his three years in charge, and after players were allowed to coast Rangnick was left with a squad happy to go above his head to the boardroom - and happy to leak details to the press, including accusations that the work was boring.
Well, get used to it. Because elite management in 2022 is defined by a level of structural detail – in passing networks and choreographed dances of positioning and movement – that requires highly repetitive training sessions.
The good news for Man Utd supporters is that Ten Hag is very much from that school. The bad news for the players is that Ten Hag will make them endlessly repeat set plays and tricks, formations and transitional scenarios, halting the action every few seconds if he feels the need to reposition a player a few centimetres this way or that.
What is Ten Hag’s coaching style?
The fundamentals of Ten Hag’s approach are relatively closely aligned to those of Pep Guardiola, under whom he worked while coach of Bayern Munich II.
Challenge Intensity - Duels, tackles and interceptions per minute of opponent possession
Smart Pass - A creative and penetrative pass that attempts to break the opposition's defensive lines to gain a significant advantage in attack
Progressive Pass - A forward pass that attempts to advance a team significantly closer to the opponent’s goal
In a highly-malleable 4-3-3, United will look to build through the lines with great variation as well as detail, players recycling the ball and learning how to fill in for one another as: the defensive line pass vertically; the midfield three rotate; and the forwards work to overload one side in preparation for a quick diagonal switch.
At Man Utd, all going well, we will see the sort of pinpoint triangles all over the pitch that are typically spotted at the likes of Manchester City and Liverpool, although with more emphasis on making use of attacking transitions than at Guardiola’s City in particular.
Ajax like to counter-press with high numbers, often deploying a mix of zonal and man-to-man pressing in open play to swarm the opponent – before flying forward when the ball is won back.
His Ajax team has changed a lot over the last few years and the latest incarnation, using a target man in Sebastien Haller and a greater emphasis on true width, doesn’t bare too much of a resemblence to the electric, transition-based side we saw in the Champions League run of 2019.
The contrast between those two versions highlights Ten Hag’s flexibility and his willingness to accomodate difference when it comes to the final third, although the foundations – in build-up play and pressing – remain consistent.
One such tactic will be the commitment to attack, with multiple players bursting forward to create huge overloads in the final third. Again, there is great variety in how this is achieved, with the full-backs sometimes overlapping and at other times coming into midfield to play incisive passes into the forwards.
It is very much at the vanguard of modern high-pressing, high-energy possession football, which means the same vulnerabilities we can often see under Jurgen Klopp or Guardiola.
Ajax can get caught on the break, their defensive line proving too high should opponents manage to evade the counter-press and turn those aggressive centre-backs.
How many new signings will Ten Hag need?
The Man Utd squad is not currently well-suited to this idea, partly because of their poor recruitment over the last few years but mainly because they have had a succession of managers hoping to play an outdated mode of football.
None of Van Gaal, Mourinho, or Solskjaer had much interest in hard pressing or utilising attacking transitions to play with modern verticality.
Starting with the positives, Donny van de Beek should finally get a chance to impress. His positional intelligence in the Ajax midfield, and his capacity to fill multiple roles in Ten Hag’s three, will be very useful, particularly in the early months of the new manager’s reign. Van de Beek will be able to set the example.
Similarly, Fred has shown with a recent spell of good form that he has the forward-thinking intent and press-evading qualities of a weaving central midfielder in the Ten Hag mould.
Raphael Varane should be comfortable adapting too, while Ten Hag’s ability to show flexibility with his forwards – accommodating Haller, for example – may mean there is space for an attacking system built around Cristiano Ronaldo’s unique qualities.
Finally, Ten Hag will certainly appreciate the directness of Marcus Rashford, Anthony Elanga, and Jadon Sancho, with the latter’s coaching at Borussia Dortmund likely to be utilised well.
Elsewhere, there are big problems. Harry Maguire does not have the speed or agility to function in such a high defensive line and United need two new full-backs, both capable of sitting for long periods in central midfield.
Bruno Fernandes does not have the pressing capacity to really suit the new manager, while David de Gea isn’t good enough with the ball at his feet.
But with United’s ‘star’ players on long and lucrative deals, Ten Hag will mostly have to make do with what he has got; adding to the roster rather than replacing.
Herein lies the crux of the problem at hand. Ten Hag does not inherit a clean slate. Man Utd are locked, for now, in an unhealthy position and any new manager would need two to three years before the club reflect his principles.
Is Ten Hag a big enough name to earn the respect of these players and to get that sort of time?
Despite the Dutchman’s excellent tactical credentials, that is the most important question of all - and perhaps the only one that will matter as United prepare for a thorny 2022/23.