What now for Lionel Messi and Barcelona?
It's October 2004, and a 17-year-old Lionel Messi enters the pitch as a substitute against Espanyol to make his competitive debut for Barcelona. To his left: Henrik Larsson. To Larsson's left: Ronaldinho. Samuel Eto’o has already left the field.
The Messi, Eto'o, Ronaldinho triumvirate would be the first in a string of Barca front threes where the Argentine wizard was the key component. That appeared to be remaining very much the case in 2021, with a now 34-year-old Messi set for up to five more years at Camp Nou having seemingly agreed a 50% pay cut.
But a month on, the dream of perhaps the greatest footballer in history remaining a one club man is now in tatters. Barcelona will instead be relying upon an ageing countryman of his who has barely kicked a ball in two years, and a Dutchman yet to prove he can cut it at the top level of world and European football.
How a footballing behemoth has crumbled.
Lionel Messi next club odds (via Sky Bet)
- PSG - 1/2
- Barcelona - 5/2
- Manchester City - 6/1
- Any MLS side - 16/1
Odds correct at 0730 BST (06/08/21)
What has happened to Barcelona?
The memories of Messi, David Villa and Pedro scoring a combined total of 100 goals in 2010/11 to help Barcelona win La Liga, the Spanish Super Cup and Champions League will seem a lifetime ago for Barcelona supporters.
So too the heady days of Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez, whose 364 goals in 450 matches for the club fired them to two La Liga titles, three Copa del Rey wins, a Champions League and a Club World Cup.
During the 2014/15 and 2015/16 campaign, two of the first three seasons the three played together, Barcelona racked up over 100 Expected Goals; only three other clubs have ever surpassed 100 xG since Infogol began collating such data (Real Madrid 2014/15 & 2017/18, PSG 2018/19, Manchester City 2019/20).
Ever since Neymar was sold to PSG for an astronomical £200m in 2017 it feels as though Barcelona have been chasing a replication of that trio. And really, who can blame them.
But they have failed miserably. And it has had major consequences.
Barcelona have spent a reported £1bn on players since 2015. Some of that spending was subsided by the Neymar sale, but the way they have invested those funds simply has not worked.
And it goes deeper than just transfer fees, with Barcelona now still more than 40% over the wage cap and only able to reinvest 25% of what they earn.
Barcelona’s likely front three next season will have something in common - they didn't cost a fee.
Just how much will Barcelona miss Messi?
Barcelona finished third in La Liga last season, seven points behind winners Atletico Madrid, but according to expected goals (xG), they were unfortunate not to have finished much closer to Simeone’s men, and perhaps even pipped them to the title.
They posted by far the highest expected goal difference (+40.0) in the league, while Barca's attacking numbers were also far superior to either Madrid side (83.8xGF). Messi was, of course, a huge reason for those strong underlying numbers.
He was involved in 45% of Barcelona’s xG total, and while his expected assists were down last term, his expected goals total (25.7) was actually the highest he has recorded since the 2017/18 season.
These numbers demonstrate just how important Messi is to this Barcelona team, but they also paint a worrying picture of over-reliance.
Without the Argentine dragging them through season after season, they really could be in dire straits.
From Magical Messi to Memphis Depay
Financial struggles have ultimately forced Barcelona into a desperate situation.
Their marquee summer signings remain Sergio Aguero, who has played only 25 league matches in the last two seasons, and Memphis Depay, over whom question marks still remain in terms of his ability at the very top level. Both are players of quality, arguably shrewd signings as free transfers.
As the supporting act to one of football's greatest ever, there was hope for Barca in 2021/22. Carrying the weight on their own is a different challenge altogether.
It is worth noting that we've been close to this situation several times before. But never has "Lionel Messi shall not be staying on at FC Barcelona" been said by the club itself.
On Sunday Messi confirmed the news himself too, so this time, it looks like it really is happening.
'Mes que un club' is Barcelona' famous motto, but it's whether they're more than one footballer that is the question now.
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