Belgium’s come-from-behind win over Denmark secured their own place in the knockout stage of Euro 2020, but it left the rest of Group B agonisingly poised - and it's not the only group.
Group B had been expected to be a straightforward proposition, Belgium as winners and the Danes as runners-up - best priced 10/11 on the dual forecast.
But the quite frankly shocking decision to resume Denmark’s opening fixture with Finland only two hours after Christian Eriksen suffered a cardiac arrest during the first half, a match an emotionally exhausted Denmark side went on to lose 1-0, helped to blow the group wide open.
Two defeats from two and bottom of your group would normally mean near certain elimination in tournament football, but Denmark are still very much in this Euros.
So how can Denmark qualify for the last 16?
To qualify from Group B odds (via Sky Bet)
- Denmark - 4/6
- Finland - 8/11
- Russia - 5/4
How are teams separated when tied on points?
UEFA do cover this in painful, fastidious detail, to the point of making things more, not less, confusing. For now, let's just stick to the basic bones, with criteria ranked in the following order:
- Head-to-head;
- Goal difference in matches involving tied teams;
- Goals scored in matches involving tied teams;
- Goal difference in all group matches;
- Goals scored in all group matches;
- Higher number of wins in all group matches;
- Lower disciplinary points (three points red card, one point yellow);
- Position in overall European Qualifier rankings
What is the situation in Group B?
In Group B, it is highly likely that all three ‘second-placed’ teams could end having beaten one another, rendering head-to-head null and void.
Denmark’s two narrow defeats means they go into their final group game against Russia with a realistic chance of clinching runners-up place, never mind merely taking one of the four best third-place spots.
How much attention they had paid to UEFA's 70-page rules and regs I'm not sure, as the decision to send Kasper Schmeichel up in the dying moments of their defeat by Belgium was a little bizarre if they knew the situation they were faced with.
Quite simply, victory over Russia by any score would see Denmark finish above their opponents thanks to the Russians’ 3-0 hammering by Belgium in their opening game, and almost certainly send them through to the knockout stage in either second or third.
To simply qualify, Denmark are 4/6 and Finland 8/11, reflecting how three points is highly likely to be enough to clinch a place in the last 16.
Russia are the ones who are sweating after that terrible start to the tournament, with it looking as though it could well cost them dear, after they failed to beat Finland by enough goals for the goal-difference between tied teams to become a hugely relevant criteria.
What about deciding second place?
Should the Danes take care of their own business, they would then require a favour from Belgium in order to finish in second. ‘Favour’ is a stretch too, as world number one against world number 54 presents the biggest mismatch in the tournament so far.
It's no surprise that Sky Bet have Denmark priced as 11/10 favourites to finish as runner-up, with Russia 6/4 and Finland 11/2.
Finland head into the final round of fixtures with a goal-difference of zero, while Denmark are on -2.
But ignore their defeat by Belgium, and Denmark's goal difference is just -1, meaning a two-goal victory over Russia would see them finish top of that mini table beneath the Red Devils.
Should everything end level between Finland and Denmark in that little sub league, with the markets currently favouring a two-goal Belgium victory over the Finns, Denmark's near catastrophic, emotional rollercoaster of a group stage could well end up finishing in exactly the way it was forecast.
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