There's games in the Sky Bet Championship on Wednesday with title favourites Norwich in action. Tom Carnduff has a 25/1 headline tip.
Recommended bets
3pts 20+ booking points for each team in Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pt Emiliano Buendia to score from outside the area in Norwich v Hull at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa
Head over to Sky Sports Action to catch this one, which for me is the highlight of the evening given the league positions of both teams.
Depending how other results go, Forest could move into the play-off positions with victory and the best case scenario for Villa would be that they move to within a point of the top-six.
There's a Premier League referee for this one and that's why there is value in backing the cards. Mike Dean has shown more yellow and red cards than any other official in the top-flight this season, while there were five yellows in the single Championship game he has overseen.
Forest still possess the worst disciplinary record in the division. Their 85 yellow cards is eight more than Derby while only Preston can match the five sendings off they've received.
A point of interest is that none of those red cards have come at home, while Villa are yet to have someone sent off away. Forest though have received at least two yellow cards in their last seven games in front of their own supporters.
Considering the significance of the game at this point in the season and the referee in charge, the value is certainly there in backing both teams to receive 20+ booking points at a price of 11/10 with Sky Bet.
Add into the mix that Jack Grealish is one of the most fouled players in the division alongside Jack Colback committing the seventh-highest amount of fouls and you can see how their could be some decisions for Dean to make.
If you're interested, Colback is 5/2 with Unibet to be shown in this one. In terms of the result though, take the 8/5 on a Forest win. Villa are coming into this one on the back of two victories but Forest's home form has been more than impressive in recent weeks.
If they are to make the top-six, home form will be key and that may give them an advantage over the likes of Derby and Bristol City. Martin O'Neill will be eager for another three points on Wednesday night.
Best bet: 20+ booking points for each team at 11/10
Opta facts
- Nottingham Forest have won one of their last 13 matches against Aston Villa in all competitions (D6 L6), a 2-1 win in February 2017.
- Aston Villa are looking to win consecutive league matches away at Nottingham Forest for the first time since January 1995.
- Nottingham Forest have won each of their last four home league games under Martin O’Neill. The last time the Northern Irishman won five such games in a row was in April 1995 in the third tier with Wycombe Wanderers.
- Aston Villa have won consecutive league games for the first time since November (three in a row).
- Martin O’Neill has lost just one of his 12 matches against Aston Villa in all competitions as a manager (W5 D6 L1), though that was in his most recent game against them in November 2012, a 0-1 defeat with Sunderland.
- Aston Villa striker Tammy Abraham has scored five Championship goals in three appearances against Nottingham Forest, scoring four in the 5-5 draw in this season’s reverse fixture.
Norwich v Hull
The Canaries looked a little flat in their 1-0 victory over Swansea on Friday night, but the main thing is that they secured the three points.
Norwich are back in front of the Sky Sports cameras for the visit of a Hull side who still hold play-off aspirations, but their away record may cost them a top-six spot in the end.
We had a successful tip in that game with Emiliano Buendia's goal, that would have made Alan Partridge proud back in 1994, landing a 13/5 anytime goalscorer shout.
He was a bright spark in a fairly dull showing, and I'm willing to put my faith in the winger hitting the net once again here.
Even more so, rather than take the same price on a goal, we're going with the huge 25/1 on offer with Sky Bet for a goal to come with an effort from outside the penalty area.
He's now up to 19 goals with a direct involvement this season, four of those coming in the last four games. As discussed in Friday's preview, Teemu Pukki grabs the headlines but Buendia is a real star.
55% of his shots in the Sky Bet Championship have come from outside the area. He sits alongside Alexander Tettey for the joint-highest amount of efforts from distance in this Norwich side - although Buendia provides better value due to his position on the pitch.
He is still waiting for that first goal from outside the area, but the fact that a couple have come from the edge shows that he does have an ability from 16-18 yards out.
The shots stats back up his confidence in trying to find the net. Alongside that, Friday night's effort showed that he has the shot power required if he connects with the ball in the right way.
Best bet: Emiliano Buendia to score from outside the area at 25/1
Opta facts
- Norwich have won just one of their last nine league matches against Hull (D4 L4), winning 1-0 in January 2014.
- Hull have won one of their last nine league visits to Carrow Road against Norwich (W1 D3 L5)
- Norwich have been beaten just once in their last 11 league games (W7 D3), falling 3-1 to Preston in February.
- Hull City have lost each of their last four away games in the Championship, scoring just one goal while letting in 13. They lost five in a row earlier this season, between August and October.
- Nigel Adkins won his last away league match against Norwich back in November 2014 as Reading boss, a 2-1 win.
- 37% of Norwich’s league goals at Carrow Road this season have been scored in the final 15 minutes of games (14 of 38), the highest ratio of any home side.
Cheltenham Festival
I'm sure many of you are carrying an interest in Cheltenham Festival this week, ITV Racing's Oli Bell has been picking out some of his best bets and you can view them all for Wednesday by clicking on the image below.