Premier League tips: Betting previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Burnley v Wolves, Manchester City v Bournemouth and Newcastle v Tottenham on Wednesday
Wednesday's packed Premier League fixture list sees Manchester City, Tottenham and Wolves all in action. We look at the betting for the 6pm kick-offs.
Recommended bets
2pts Manchester City to win both halves at 11/10
1pt Under 1.5 Goals in Burnley v Wolves at 13/8
1pt Tottenham clean sheet at 6/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Burnley v Wolves
- 1800 BST kick-off on BBC Sport
- Match Odds: Home 7/2 | Draw 21/10 | Away 10/11
What Burnley have achieved since lockdown is quite incredible, and although it's been praised to a degree there hasn't been nearly enough credit dished out. After starting Project Restart with a 5-0 thrashing at Manchester City, their season was expected to end disastrously - which was a fair assumption given a contract and injury crisis at the club.
With players playing out of position and a maximum of three senior outfield players being on the bench in each game, they have won three and drawn two since, the most recent of which was a 1-1 against Liverpool, becoming the first team to take points from Anfield since January 2019.
Despite their form, they're 4/1 to beat Wolves which is an astonishingly big price.
All of their games since their Etihad beating have involved Under 2.5 Goals (three 1-0 wins and two 1-1 draws) so that's the market that sticks out, especially given who they're playing.
Wolves' need to win this game to keep their slim hopes of Champions League qualification alive - as outlined in our top four race analysis here. But, I don't see Nuno casting aside the methods that have got his side this far in pursuit of three points, especially because Burnley are a direct rival in the battle for Europa League football too.
Their 3-0 win over a spineless Everton team was an anomaly in terms of goals, breaking a seven-game Under 2.5 Goals streak in all competitions. So you won't be surprised to hear that the best you can get on that market is 6/11 - not great.
A goalless first 45 minutes at 11/8 is worth looking at, as six of Wolves' last eight games have been 0-0 at half-time, with the two that haven't seeing goals scored in the 43rd and 45th minute, so they got pretty close. They were home games too.
I don't think it's too much to ask for a 1-0 or a 0-0 given the nature of these teams. Half of the last 10 fixtures involving either team has ended 1-0 and they weren't necessarily playing an equally tight side either. The price for Under 1.5 Goals is a much more enticing 13/8.
This is going to sound like I'm hedging because I am. I think Wolves will edge it, but I highly recommend backing Burnley to win at the inflated odds that are being offered because it's rare that you'll get an opportunity like that. If I wasn't so sure about the lack of goals I'd be heading there for that value as my Best Bet.
Prediction: Burnley 0-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 4/1)
Best bet: Under 1.5 Goals at 13/8
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Manchester City v Bournemouth
- 1800 BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match Odds: Home 1/6 | Draw 13/2 | Away 14/1
Bournemouth have been much-improved in their last two matches, drawing 0-0 with Spurs and coming from behind to win 4-1 against Leicester to give themselves an outside chance of Premier League survival, but that upturn ends here.
Manchester City may have lost 2-1 at Chelsea and 1-0 at Southampton since lockdown, but at home they've beaten Arsenal 3-0, Burnley and Newcastle 5-0 and Liverpool 4-0. Last time out they won 5-0 away at Brighton. They have simply torn teams to pieces.
The goal-scorer market isn't the easiest as City have an FA Cup semi-final against Arsenal at the weekend, so it's a bit of a guessing game as to who Pep Guardiola will select, but Phil Foden has started their last three home games. He was a sub against Brighton so that makes his chances of starting pretty good.
He's also scored four goals in City's four Project Restart matches at the Etihad. The 7/5 price for Foden to score and City to win reflects that good run he's on, but it's still decent value along with 2+ Shots On Target at 11/8.
But I can't back those confidently until the teams have been announced. If Foden starts then sure, or even if he comes off the bench in the second half and his price shoots up in-play then it's one worth looking at.
In a match that's priced to be so one-sided there aren't many appealing markets, but one that sticks out to me is Manchester City to win both halves at 11/10. They have done so in all six of their post-shutdown wins, and only one of them has seen them lead by fewer than two goals at half-time.
Pep teams are not allowed to coast to victory. A better than evens price is too good to turn down.
Prediction: Man City 4-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Newcastle v Tottenham
- 1800 BST kick-off on BT Sport
- Match Odds: Home 10/3 | Draw 14/5 | Away 8/11
Jose Mourinho gets a fair amount of stick these days, most of it warranted for plenty of grumpiness and negative football. But he does deserve praise for doing a good patchwork job with Tottenham's defence during the break.
They did have one terrible lapse against Sheffield United when they were beaten 3-1, but in their other five games they've conceded only two goals - one a penalty and one a 25-yard thunderbolt, albeit after a defensive slip.
I can't see Newcastle breaching that improved defence, despite getting better in front of goal themselves since lockdown.
While Spurs may have rediscovered the ability to land shots on target, scored twice and won the north London derby at the weekend they were far from free-flowing so backing them to bang in the goals just isn't smart. But I do think a Newcastle side with nothing to play for may go a little more offensive late in the game, giving Mourinho's side the opportunity to pinch a second.
Tottenham to keep a clean sheet at 6/4 looks good to me - they've done so in three of their last five matches.
Despite finding a scoring touch in recent weeks, only Crystal Palace (14) and Southampton (17) have managed fewer than Newcastle's 18 home league goals this season.
Prediction: Newcastle 0-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Tottenham clean sheet at 6/4
Odds correct as of 1130 BST on 14/07/20
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