Sporting Life
We look ahead to the latest midweek matches in the Premier League, including Frank Lampard's Chelsea
We look ahead to the latest midweek matches in the Premier League, including Frank Lampard's Chelsea

Free Premier League betting tips: Betting previews, score predictions & best bets for Wednesday's games including West Ham v Chelsea

By Joe Townsend
Football
Wed July 01, 2020 · 4y ago

Four more Premier League games to get stuck into on Wednesday including West Ham v Chelsea. Joe Townsend previews the lot.

Recommended bets

1pt Arsenal and Under 3.5 Goals in match at 5/4

1pt Under 1.5 Goals in Bournemouth v Newcastle at 15/8

1pt Under 2.5 Goals in Everton v Leicester at 5/6

1pt Chelsea and Both Teams to Score at 9/4

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Arsenal v Norwich

Mikel Arteta celebrates with his Arsenal players

After a crushing defeat by Manchester City and last-gasp loss at Brighton, Arsenal have responded well - first with a win at Southampton in the Premier League, and then by sneaking past Sheffield United in a dramatic finish to their FA Cup quarter-final at Bramall Lane.

Norwich were desperately unlucky to lose to a 118th-minute Harry Maguire against Manchester United after a much-improved showing following lifeless reverses against Southampton and Everton.

How do you tip a Gunners game though? They truly are the most unpredictable team in the division. At least they're predictably unpredictable I suppose.

To Mikel Arteta's credit they've been pretty good at the Emirates since he took charge, losing only twice in all competitions and keeping clean sheets in three of their five top-flight games.

Norwich, as you'd expect for a team rooted to the bottom of the Premier League table, usually lose on their travels. But it's rare that they get a real towelling, with a defeat of a margin greater than two goals happening only three times - Liverpool, Manchester United and Wolves are no slouches.

So that's where my money is going.

Opta stats

  • Arsenal have only lost one of their eight Premier League home games against Norwich (W5 D2) – the defeat came on the first ever day of Premier League action on 15th August 1992, with the Canaries coming from behind to win 4-2 at Highbury.
  • Norwich have kept just one clean sheet in their last 12 Premier League meetings with Arsenal (31 goals conceded), with that coming in their only win against them in that time (1-0 in October 2012).
  • This will be both Arsenal and Norwich’s first ever competitive game played in the month of July.
  • Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 26 home Premier League games against promoted sides (W22 D4), since losing consecutive such matches against West Brom and Newcastle in 2010-11.
  • Since a 2-1 win at Spurs in April 2012, Norwich are winless in 21 Premier League games in London (D6 L15), losing each of the last seven in a row.
  • Arsenal have won as many Premier League games in 13 matches under Mikel Arteta (W5 D5 L3) as they did in 18 games under Unai Emery and Freddie Ljungberg this season (W5 D8 L5).
  • Arsenal registered their 10th Premier League win of the season in their 2-0 win away at Southampton – it was the longest they’d had to wait for their 10th league win a season since 1975/76, when they also won their 10th game in their 31st match on their way to finishing 17th that season.
  • Norwich are the only Premier League side yet to recover a single point from a losing position this season – no team in Premier League history has ever failed to gain a point from a losing position across a full campaign.
  • Norwich have scored just one goal across their last seven Premier League matches (W1 D1 L5) despite attempting 71 shots with an expected goal ratio of 6.2. 14 of those shots have been from top scorer Teemu Pukki, who has failed to score with any.
  • Against Southampton, Arsenal had two English scorers (Eddie Nketiah and Joe Willock) in a Premier League game for the first time since August 2016 against Liverpool. It was the first time the Gunners had two English scorers aged 21 or younger in a league game since May 1989, when Michael Thomas and David Rocastle scored in a 5-0 win over Norwich.

Bournemouth v Newcastle

Eddie Howe looking worried as Bournemouth lose again

It's not looking good for Bournemouth.

A 2-0 defeat at home to Crystal Palace and a 1-0 loss at Wolves means they have now collected just one point from a possible 18. Things seemed to be looking up when they won back-to-back games at the end of January and start of February to end a run of one win in 12 league matches, but all it has done is launch another barren spell.

If they are to have any chance of climbing out of the relegation zone then surely it's games such as this that they must win. Newcastle won their last Premier League away game at the division's worst home team Southampton to boost what has been a poor record on the road this term for Steve Bruce's side.

You can expect the Magpies' tried and trusted method of keeping things tight and looking to pinch a goal on the counter attack to be implemented, with the match probably following a similar pattern to Bournemouth's home reversal by Palace in their first game back.

I think the Cherries will be snuffed out by Bruce's hard-nosed outfit in this encounter, and I wouldn't be surprised if Newcastle nicked it, but on balance I'm going with the draw. Regardless, I do think Eddie Howe's team will be playing Championship football next term.

Opta stats

  • Bournemouth are winless in their last four Premier League meetings with Newcastle (D2 L2), losing the reverse fixture 1-2 earlier this season.
  • Both of Newcastle’s Premier League defeats against Bournemouth have come at home, with the Magpies unbeaten in their three previous visits to the Vitality Stadium (W1 D2).
  • This will be Bournemouth’s first ever competitive match played in the month of July, while it’s Newcastle’s first in the month since 2006, and a 3-0 win against Lillestrom in the Intertoto Cup.
  • Bournemouth have lost 15 of their last 20 Premier League matches (W3 D2), a run beginning with a 2-1 defeat at Newcastle on November 9th. From that date, the Cherries’ tally of 11 points is the fewest of any Premier League side.
  • Newcastle are looking to win consecutive away Premier League games for the first time since January 2018, having won 1-0 at Southampton back in March.
  • Bournemouth have kept fewer clean sheets than any other Premier League side this season (4). Of the previous 38 teams to keep the fewest number of clean sheets in a Premier League season (including joint-fewest), only 10 have avoided relegation (26%), most recently Bournemouth themselves in 2017-18.
  • Only Liverpool (16) have had more different goalscorers in the Premier League this season than Newcastle (15, excl. own goals). Only in 2004-05 and 2014-15 (both 16) have the Magpies had more different players find the net in a single campaign.
  • Excluding penalties, Bournemouth have scored a league-high 48% of their Premier League goals this season from set-piece situations (14/29). Since we have full data for this available (2006-07), only two teams have recorded a higher such share in a full Premier League campaign – Blackburn in 2009-10 (51%) and West Brom in 2014-15 (50%).
  • Newcastle striker Dwight Gayle hasn’t scored in consecutive Premier League appearances since December 2017 – he scored a brace in his last Premier League game at the Vitality Stadium in the Magpies’ 2-2 draw in February 2018.
  • Bournemouth’s Calum Wilson picked up his 10th yellow card in 30 Premier League games this season last time out against Wolves. In 91 top-flight appearances before this season, he had been booked just three times.

Everton v Leicester

Leicester's Kasper Schmeichel saves a penalty from Brighton's Neal Maupay

Leicester's push for a top four place is stuttering, and not just since the return of the Premier League. Just two top-flight wins since New Year's Day, against strugglers West Ham and Aston Villa, has seen the pressure increase as the closing pack continue to home in.

A lack of creativity has been a major issue, with their only goal post-shutdown coming courtesy of a stunning Ben Chilwell strike at Watford. Defensively they have looked themselves thought, conceding twice in total across their league draws with Watford and Brighton, and FA Cup quarter-final defeat by Chelsea.

Six of their last eight fixtures have seen Under 1.5 goals scored, with a 1-1 draw and their 4-0 thrashing of Villa completing the run.

When I start talking about Everton's own goal-shyness then you'll see where I'm going with this.

Carlo Ancelotti's team have kept successive clean sheets, against Liverpool and Norwich, and picked up four points. After a prolific run from late January into February - when they netted 10 times in four matches - the goals have dried up.

It's just two goals in four matches for the Toffees, but they did show encouraging signs in final 15 minutes of the goalless Merseyside derby, and arguably should've bagged a couple.

I'm struggling to split these two so I'm plumping for the draw.

Opta stats

  • Everton have lost two of their last four home league games against Leicester (W2), as many as they had in their previous 19 against them at Goodison Park (W7 D10).
  • Leicester are looking to win three consecutive top-flight league games against Everton for the first time since May 1966.
  • Between 1994-95 and 2014-15, 13 of the 18 Premier League meetings between Everton and Leicester ended as draws (4 Everton wins, 1 Leicester). Since then, none of the last nine meetings between the sides has finished level (4 Everton wins, 5 Leicester).
  • Everton’s only previous competitive match in July was in Europa League qualifying in 2017, beating MFK Ruzomberok 1-0 at Goodison Park. Meanwhile, this is Leicester’s first ever competitive July game.
  • Everton are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League home games (W4 D4) – only Liverpool (56) are on a longer current run without a home defeat in the competition.
  • Leicester have failed to score in four of their last six Premier League matches – they’d only failed to score in three of their first 25 this season.
  • Everton are the only team yet to win a penalty in the Premier League this season. They’ve gone 38 games since they last won one (vs Chelsea in March 2019), their joint-longest such run in the competition (also 38 in 2008).
  • Everton have scored a league-high 61% of their Premier League goals this season in the opening 45 minutes of games (23/38). However, only Liverpool (8) and Sheffield United (13) have conceded fewer in the first half than Leicester (14).
  • Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has been involved in eight goals in his nine Premier League games against Everton, scoring six and assisting a further two. His next goal in the competition will be his 100th Premier League goal.
  • Excluding penalties, Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin has the highest expected goals figure in the Premier League this season (14.1). Since the season restarted, Calvert-Lewin has had 45% of Everton’s shots in the Premier League (9/20), including seven of their 12 in their last match against Norwich.

West Ham v Chelsea

Ross Barkley scores the winner for Chelsea at Leicester in the FA Cup

How do we back anything other than a Chelsea win here? The only factor working in West Ham's favour is the extra game the Blues played in the FA Cup on Sunday - a hard-fought 1-0 win at Leicester.

It means this will be Frank Lampard's side's fourth game in just 10 days since they returned to action on June 21. To account for that he made six changes for the trip to the King Power, where he then used all five of his allotted substitutions.

Victory there built on an impressive win over Manchester City, was their third success from three since the restart, and a fifth in succession all told.

Things could hardly be different for West Ham. While they may benefit from heading into this fixture following a full week's rest, David Moyes' team have lost 2-0 twice - at home to Wolves and away to Spurs. It's just one victory in 12 in all competitions for the Irons.

I don't see things getting any better for them at the London Stadium on Tuesday, but Chelsea's clean sheet against Leicester was only their third on the road in all competitions this season so I'm backing the Irons to at least find the net for the first time since the shutdown.

Opta stats

  • Following their 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge in November, West Ham are looking to complete their first league double over Chelsea since 2002-03 – a campaign in which the Hammers were relegated from the Premier League.
  • Having scored in 11 consecutive away league games against West Ham between 2006-2017, Chelsea have failed to find the net in their last two visits to face the Hammers (D1 L1).
  • West Ham have lost all three of their home London derbies in the Premier League this season; they’ve never lost four consecutively in the competition, last doing so in the top-flight in January 1989.
  • West Ham have lost their last three Premier League games, by an aggregate score of 0-5. They last lost four in a row in September 2018, while they last lost four in a row without scoring back in October 2006 (5 games).
  • Chelsea have won their last three Premier League London derbies on the road, last having a longer such run between April-November 2009 (4).
  • Chelsea have scored twice or more in each of their last five Premier League games – they last scored two or more goals in six consecutive league games in the same season in November/December 2013, with current manager Frank Lampard scoring in two of those games.
  • When not winning at half-time, West Ham have gone on to lose 16 of their last 18 Premier League games, with the exceptions being a 1-1 draw with Everton in January, and a 1-0 win at Chelsea in November.
  • West Ham have dropped a league-high 22 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, while only gaining one point from losing positions themselves.
  • Christian Pulisic has scored seven Premier League goals this season for Chelsea – the most of any player in the division aged 21 or younger.
  • Of all Premier League players to have scored at least 20 Premier League goals, West Ham’s Manuel Lanzini has scored the highest proportion of them in London derbies (45% - 9/20).

Follow Sporting Life on social - find us on Facebook here or tweet @SportingLifeFC

Related football content

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

Sky Bet's responsible gambling tools are detailed here and if you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.