Sporting Life
Our best bets for the latest round of Europa League fixtures
Our best bets for the latest round of Europa League fixtures

Europa League betting tips: Wednesday's preview, predictions & latest odds

By Joe Townsend
Football
Wed August 05, 2020 · 4y ago

Preview, predictions & latest odds for Wednesday's Europa League round of 16 clashes including Manchester United and Inter Milan.

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For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Manchester United v LASK (5-0 agg)

Manchester United celebrate Mason Greenwood's goal at Brighton

Suffice to say LASK head into this game at a major disadvantage, and I'm not just talking about them being 5-0 down in the tie.

The opening leg was one of the final matches played before the three-month hiatus, and one of the first to behind closed doors. Four goals in the final half-an-hour saw Manchester United tear apart a team that had won 12 of their previous 14 league games to sit six points clear in the Austrian Bundesliga.

Five months on, LASK's form has deserted them - they ended their domestic campaign with three defeats - and they haven't played a competitive match since July 5. We know all about United's form, which could hardly be more contrasting.

With their place in the quarter-finals all-but secured, expect Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to rest his star names and run with Daniel James, Juan Mata, Jesse Lingard, Odion Ighalo and alike. In the reverse fixture, Ighalo was amongst the goals, something he's done in all four of his Man United starts.

The respect the Nigerian's earned since his much-mocked January arrival at Old Trafford can be illustrated by the odds change for Man United win/Ighalo to score from the opening leg to now, from 13/5 in Linz to 19/20 at Old Trafford.

Given it's happened every time he's started, the price makes sense, but strangely enough, Ighalo to score anytime at evens is available in some places - so I'd suggest getting on that quickly.

Odion Ighalo scores for Man Utd against LASK

If you're chasing a little more bang for your buck then Ighalo first goalscorer at 15/4 is a real tempter - he's got a 50% hit rate, and has scored in the first half of all four matches he's started in.

Backing him to manage 3+ shots on target at 6/4 was a consideration, but as a poacher-type strike who also spends a lot of time with his back to goal, I think we'd be asking too much for too little reward.

As our other bet, I considered the both teams to score market given that United's previous defensive solidity deserted them in the closing weeks of the domestic season (they kept only three clean sheets in their final seven matches, conceding eight times in total) and their opponents have nothing to lose.

But despite what's likely to be a much-changed Man United defence, they will probably still have enough to keep out a LASK attack that managed a solitary goal in their final four league matches, and will be short of competitive action.

There is no value in United to win to nil though, and I don't have enough trust in whatever defence goes out there. Instead I'm backing the attack and heading to Man Utd -2 handicap at 2/1.

I wouldn't be at all shocked to see another crushing win, which makes Man Utd -3 handicap at 5/1 worth looking at if you're feeling a little greedier that I'm going to be.

Best bets:

Score prediction: Manchester United 3-0 LASK (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Opta stats

  • Manchester United have played more games against Austrian sides without defeat in all European competitions than they have against teams from any other nation (P9 W8 D1) scoring 22 goals and conceding just one.
  • Lask have lost just one of their last seven Europa League games (W4 D2), although that defeat did come against Manchester United in the first leg, conceding as many goals in that game (5) as they had done in their first eight matches in the competition this season.
  • The last time Manchester United reached the quarter finals of the Europa League they won the tournament back in 2016-17, in what was Jose Mourinho’s first season in charge of the Red Devils.
  • In all major European competitions, Manchester United’s biggest aggregate victory in a two-legged knockout tie was 12-0 against RSC Anderlecht in the 1956-57 European Cup first round (2-0 away and 10-0 at home).
  • Manchester United have used 35 different players in this seasons Europa League, seven more than any other side (Sevilla, 28).
  • Mason Greenwood has scored more Europa League goals than any other Man Utd player this season, netting five of his eight shots on target.

Inter Milan v Getafe

Alexis Sanchez: Manchester United man closing in on Inter Milan permanent switch

With the first leg of this last-16 tie having never been played because of coronavirus, Inter Milan and Getafe will meet in Gelsenkirchen at the home of Schalke in a one-off game to try and book their place in the ‘Final Eight’ as dubbed by UEFA, which will be held in Germany between August 10 and 21.

Antonio Conte's side have been superb since the Serie A season restarted, winning eight times, drawing on four occasions and losing just once to rise to second in the table with a match to play.

Inter have kept clean sheets in five of their last six games and only twice have they failed to score at least twice in the 13 post-lockdown league games.

Getafe's form is the polar opposite: one win in eleven LaLiga games and only seven goals scored.

This all points towards the Italians making it through to the quarter-finals, and shutting their Madrid-based opponents while they do it.

Ashley Young: Inter Milan full-back has been in goalscoring form

The popular goalscorer bet will be for Romelu Lukaku, but curiously Conte's team have had a major goal contribution from their full-backs since returning to action. Both Ashley Young and Danilo D'Ambrosio have scored three times, with the latter netting in the Nerazzurri's past two games.

It's clearly not been picked up on by some bookies though, as D'Ambrosio is available at 10/1 to score anytime and Young at 11/1 so it's worth backing either with small stakes.

Let's go with the Englishman because he's a better price.

Score prediction: Inter Milan 2-0 Getafe (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Best bets:

Opta stats

  • Inter Milan have won just one of their last 12 encounters against Spanish opposition in all European competitions (D4 L7) and are winless since a 3-1 victory against Barcelona in the 2009-10 Champions League semi-final.
  • This will be Getafe’s first ever competitive fixture against an Italian side. The Spanish team will be aiming to reach the quarter finals of the UEFA Cup/Europa League for just the second time, having previously done so in 2007-08 (eventually knocked out by FC Bayern München on away goals).
  • Inter Milan will be aiming to reach the quarter finals of a major European competition for the first time since the 2010-11 Champions League campaign, when they were knocked out by FC Schalke 04, losing 7-3 on aggregate.
  • Only Sevilla (5), Basel (6) and Manchester United (7) have kept more clean sheets in this seasons Europa League than Getafe (4).
  • Getafe have performed 112 pressed sequences in the Europa League this season (the number of sequences where the opposition has three or fewer passes, and the sequence ends within 40m of their own goal); only Sevilla (121) and LASK (147) have recorded more.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Wolfsburg (2-1 agg)

Opta stats

  • This will be just the second competitive meeting between Shakhtar and Wolfsburg after the Ukrainian side’s 2-1 victory in the first leg. Indeed, Shakhtar have drawn each of their last seven home matches against German opposition in European competition, with three of those games ending goalless.
  • Wolfsburg have already won in Ukraine in the Europa League this season, beating FC Oleksandria 1-0 in the group stages.
  • Shakhtar will be aiming to reach the quarter finals of the Europa League for the first time since 2015-16. However, the Ukrainian side have been eliminated from two of their last three knockout ties in European competition in which they’ve won the first leg (Europa League last 32 in 2016-17 and Champions League last 16 in 2017-18).
  • Wolfsburg have failed to progress in any of their previous two Europa League knockout ties in which they’ve lost the first leg.
  • Shakhtar have scored seven of their 33 attempts in the Europa League this season since dropping out of the Champions League (21.2% shot conversion rate), the highest conversion rate in the competition this campaign.

FC Copenhagen v Istanbul Basaksehir (0-1 agg)

Opta stats

  • This will be just the second competitive meeting between FC København and Istanbul Basaksehir, after the Turkish sides 1-0 victory in the first leg. København won their only previous home encounter against Turkish opposition, beating Galatasaray 1-0 in the 2013-14 Champions League group stage.
  • Istanbul Basaksehir have won five of their last seven Europa League games (L2) and will be aiming to reach the quarter finals of a European competition for the first time in their history.
  • FC København have progressed from just one of their 11 knockout ties in major European competition in which they’ve lost the first leg, eliminating Northern Irish side Linfield in the first round of the 1993-94 European Cup (0-3 first leg, 4-0 second leg).
  • Istanbul Basaksehir have scored more set piece goals than any other side in this seasons Europa League (8, including 4 penalties).
  • Edin Visca has been involved in seven of Istanbul Basaksehir’s 13 Europa League goals this term (6 goals, 1 assist) – only Daichi Kamada (8), Andraz Sporar (8) and Bruno Fernandes (10) have been involved in more.

Odds correct as of 1200 BST on 04/08/20

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