Free football betting tips: Champions League action on Wednesday October 28
Tom Carnduff has three best bets for Wednesday's Champions League action involving Borussia Dortmund, Chelsea and Manchester United.
Recommended bets
1pt Reece James to have 4+ tackles in Krasnodar v Chelsea at 5/2
1pt RB Leipzig to beat Manchester United at 9/4
1pt Erling Haaland to assist 1+ goals in Borussia Dortmund v Zenit at 4/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Krasnodar v Chelsea
- 17:55 GMT on BT Sport 3
- Match odds: Home 13/2 | Draw 7/2 | Away 2/5
It's all or nothing with Frank Lampard's Chelsea. While they possess a real attacking force the defence has consistently proved problematic. They enjoy two games without conceding but then the offensive output decreases and they're left with two points in two goalless draws.
A positive for them is that Wednesday sees them travel to Russia to take on a Krasnodar side who have struggled in the league so far. They sit 8th after 12 games and already find themselves nine points behind leaders Spartak Moscow, who beat them 3-1 at the weekend.
Despite that recent form, only three teams in Russia's top division can boast seeing fewer shots against per game than Krasnodar. The hosts face 11.4 shots per game in the league and they look to limit opposition chances in their home contests; only two of the seven visiting teams across all competitions this season have hit double figures.
With this in mind, it's not worth backing the 17+ Chelsea shots available at even money; Krasnodar's statistics make it difficult to find any real value in any shots market. Instead, with Krasnodar sitting sixth for average tackles (14.4) in Russia, it could become a contest that sees that count run high.
Chelsea sit seventh for average tackles per game (15.3) in the Premier League this season and a player who leads the way for the Blues in this area is Reece James. The right-back sits level with Fabinho and Aaron Wan-Bissaka in this category.
He had six successful tackles in the 0-0 draw with Sevilla while he has at least four in two of his four Premier League starts so far. James even managed to record one tackle after coming on as an 87th minute substitute in the 3-3 draw with Southampton.
Sky Bet offer 5/2 on James hitting the four marker in this game which does look decent value considering there is little appeal elsewhere. Games with such one-sided odds like this often drag down the prices across the markets, but this is one area where Chelsea can also excel.
They are the favourites and should win but Krasnodar have shown that they can be a difficult opponent to face at home. Only Spartak have emerged with all three points when visiting the Krasnodar Stadium this season and that could make it a close contest. It's one that Chelsea can secure victory in, but the better value comes in backing James to run up the tackle count.
Score prediction: Krasnodar 0-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: Reece James to have 4+ tackles at 5/2
Opta facts
- This will be first ever competitive meeting between FK Krasnodar and Chelsea. The Russian side are unbeaten in their previous two games against English teams in all competitions (W1 D1), with both matches coming against Everton in the 2014-15 UEFA Europa League.
- Chelsea have won five of their six European encounters with Russian opponents (L1), winning all four UEFA Champions League outings.
- FK Krasnodar will compete in their first ever home match in the UEFA Champions League – none of the previous six Russian sides won their first home game in the competition (D4 L2).
- Chelsea mustered just six attempts on goal in their opening UEFA Champions League match against Sevilla this season, their fewest in a match in the competition since February 2015 vs PSG (2).
- Chelsea drew 0-0 with Sevilla on MD1 of this UEFA Champions League campaign – only in their debut season in the competition in 1999-00 have they failed to win either of their first two group stage games in a single campaign.
Manchester United v RB Leipzig
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 6/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 9/4
Manchester United's victory over PSG gave them the perfect start to their Champions League campaign and a crucial three points as they look to reach the knockout stages. While United deserve some praise for their tactics on the night, we simply can't ignore just how poor PSG were.
Not only did they fail to get going at all the attitude across the board was far from good enough. That includes Neymar, a player who can do magical things and win the game on his own but he didn't look interested. It was the type of performance that highlighted just why so many people can't even put him near the same level of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.
RB Leipzig are the visitors to Old Trafford this week, a venue that saw a dull contest between United and Chelsea last time out, and I will happily take 9/4 on RB Leipzig to beat anyone. They currently sit top of the Bundesliga table and could seriously push Bayern close this season.
Julian Nagelsmann has taken this club to the next level with a semi-final appearance in this competition last season. Much was made of Timo Werner's departure for Chelsea but they have adapted and there isn't such a reliance on the one source for goals. That is one of many reasons why they can continue to battle Europe's best.
United's start to the season has been poor. Crystal Palace and Tottenham have both emerged victorious from Old Trafford with the latter hitting six past them in a memorable encounter. They now sit 15th in the Premier League standings; just one point has come from their three home games so far.
Of course, with the likes of Marcus Rashford, Bruno Fernandes and their remarkable ability to keep winning penalties they will always have a chance of success but Leipzig have demonstrated that they can win without a large majority of the possession; they will be aware of United's ability to hit them on the counter attack.
But that is what makes this Leipzig team such a difficult one to face. A game that sticks out from last season was the 0-0 draw away at Bayern. Leipzig had just 30% possession but should have won the game based on their second-half performance. A week later, they beat Tottenham with the majority of possession.
I wouldn't be rushing to back a high goals count given how this could well be a game where Leipzig look to frustrate and limit this United attack. Under 2.5 goals is 11/10 across the board, but the best value comes in taking Leipzig's 9/4 price for victory in Manchester.
Score prediction: Manchester United 0-1 RB Leipzig (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: RB Leipzig to beat Manchester United at 9/4
Opta facts
- Manchester United and RB Leipzig will meet for the first time in European competition, whilst the Red Devils have won just one of their last four matches against German opposition in Europe (D1 L2).
- RB Leipzig have won both of their matches versus English teams in European competition without conceding a goal – beating Spurs 4-0 on aggregate in last season’s UEFA Champions League last 16.
- Manchester United have lost four of their last six home games in the UEFA Champions League (W1 D1), as many defeats as in their previous 71 combined (W51 D16 L4).
- Since losing their first two away games in the UEFA Champions League, RB Leipzig have gone unbeaten in their last five matches, winning four times (D1).
- Christopher Nkunku has created more chances for his teammates than any other RB Leipzig player in the UEFA Champions League since the start of last season (19), although his assist for Angeliño’s second goal against İstanbul Başakşehir was his first in his 10th appearance for the club in the competition.
Borussia Dortmund v Zenit
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport ESPN
- Match odds: Home 4/11 | Draw 4/1 | Away 6/1
The majority of eyes will be on Manchester United's clash with RB Leipzig or Juventus meeting Barcelona but there is value in Dortmund's encounter with Zenit, and it involves the prolific striker Erling Haaland.
Little else needs to be said on his form across the past two seasons. It's frankly not human. He netted 44 goals in 40 games across all competitions last season and has started the 2020/21 campaign with seven goals in eight appearances - that includes one in last week's 3-1 defeat at Lazio.
Although I still hold some reservations about this Dortmund side under Lucien Favre, it is difficult to argue against their 4/11 price for victory and I would have little issue in including them in any Wednesday accumulators. Instead, with Haaland odds-on across the board to score, it's worth backing his 4/1 price on an assist.
It's a side of his game that doesn't get enough credit considering the high number of goals he scores but it is a figure that does run up a decent tally. Haaland had ten assists last season and has already seen three in the current campaign.
All three assists have been for different players too which can be viewed as a positive. He is expected to be involved in the goals in some capacity again with 2+ priced at just 13/5. You have to go up to over 3.5 goals to get an odds-against price which highlights what the money is behind.
Even Haaland's first goalscorer odds are a very short 5/2. For a player who plays the full 90 minutes in important games, it's worth taking the assists price for the best value. We may think that Haaland is their only goalscorer, and with seven he certainly leads the way, but Dortmund have had eleven different scorers in competitions this season.
That makes the 4/1 on a Haaland assist worth a play in a game where Dortmund should secure victory with goals. Zenit's encounter with Club Brugge last week was so entertaining with it becoming a basketball-like contest in the second-half. A repeat here will suit Haaland massively.
Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Zenit (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Erling Haaland to assist 1+ goals at 4/1
Opta facts
- Borussia Dortmund and Zenit St Petersburg’s only previous meeting in competitive football came back in the last 16 of the 2013-14 UEFA Champions League in which the German side progressed 5-4 over two legs.
- Borussia Dortmund have won their last three home games in the UEFA Champions League and are looking to secure four consecutive victories for the first time since a seven-game run between September 2012 and October 2013.
- Since winning back-to-back away games in the UEFA Champions League in 2015, Zenit St Petersburg have failed to win any of their last five in the competition (D1 L4).
- Borussia Dortmund striker Erling Haaland could make his 10th UEFA Champions League appearance in this game – he’s already guaranteed to have scored more goals than any other player in their first 10 in the competition, with the Norwegian having netted 11 goals in nine games so far, averaging a goal every 59 minutes.
- Borussia Dortmund’s Jude Bellingham became the youngest English player to start a UEFA Champions League game last time out against Lazio. Only two Englishmen have started 2+ games in the competition before turning 18 – Josh McEachran with Chelsea in 2010 and Phil Foden with Man City in 2017-18.
Odds correct at 1130 GMT (27/10/20)
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