The Champions League continues on Wednesday with a number of big clubs in action. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Mohammed Kudus to score anytime in Ajax v Liverpool at 13/2
1pt Pepe to have 3+ tackles in Manchester City v Porto at 13/8
1pt Bayern Munich to have 20+ total shots v Atletico Madrid at 6/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Ajax v Liverpool
- 20:00 BST on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 16/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 3/4
Liverpool's hopes of retaining the Premier League title and challenging for the Champions League again suffered a major blow at the weekend with the news that Virgil van Dijk is set to miss the majority, if not all, of the 2020/21 season.
His absence will be felt, alongside goalkeeper Alisson, and suddenly Ajax have a chance of getting something based on what we've seen from this Liverpool side in recent games. The Dutch outfit have seen four wins from five in the league so far and have scored eleven goals along the way.
They warmed up for this contest in the best possible fashion with a 5-1 hammering of Heerenveen on Sunday and they will know just how vulnerable this Liverpool side is; although we were already seeing that with the amount of goals conceded this season.
Adrian just can't replicate what Alisson brings to the team and this back line looks so shaky without their first choice goalkeeper or van Dijk; the man who had them organised at the back and brought that reassurance to the whole side in front of him.
Ajax became the nearly men a couple of seasons ago and have now seen a number of star players depart for Europe's elite clubs. Despite that, they continue to possess young talent and one player who could shine here is Mohammed Kudus.
The midfielder netted his first goal of the season in that win last time out and he's a player with a great scoring record considering his position on the pitch; he scored 12 goals in all competitions for Danish outfit Nordsjaelland last season.
His attack-minded approach is highlight in the fact he played in centre midfield, attacking midfield, the wing and centre forward during the 2018/19 campaign and Kudus' impact in a more advanced position last time out means we are likely to see the same line-up against Liverpool.
The goalscorer market does provide some good value here given how goals are fancied and Dusan Tadic's 27/10 best price with some bookmakers can't be completely disregarded. However, at odds of 13/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power, it's worth siding with Kudus to find the net.
Antony also looks decent value at 7/2 but it's unclear whether Erik ten Hag will opt for him or David Neres on the right wing. If he is on the bench, Antony may be worth a small play at 12/1 to be the last goalscorer given his impact in recent weeks.
But Kudus provides the best value and we can't completely disregard Liverpool's opponents while they have this problem at the back. The draw is available at 3/1 and that is the best outright option on Wednesday night.
Score prediction: Ajax 2-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Mohammed Kudus to score anytime at 13/2
Opta facts
- Ajax and Liverpool will meet for the first time since the 1966/67 European Cup, where the Dutch side eliminated the Reds with a 7-3 aggregate victory in the Last 16.
- Since losing 1-5 against Ajax in December 1966, Liverpool have gone unbeaten in their 13 games against Dutch opponents in European competition (W8 D5).
- Ajax’s Dusan Tadic has had a direct hand in 13 goals in 18 appearances in the UEFA Champions League (six goals and seven assists); the most of any player for the Dutch side since the start of the 2018/19 campaign.
- Should he appear in this game, Klaas Jan Huntelaar (37y 71d) would become just the second player to feature for Ajax in the UEFA Champions League at the age of 37, following Danny Blind back in 1998.
- Since making his UEFA Champions League debut for Liverpool in September 2017, Mohamed Salah has netted 19 goals in the competition for the Reds – the most of any player for an English club in this period.
Manchester City v Porto
- 20:00 BST on BT Sport 3
- Match odds: Home 1/4 | Draw 5/1 | Away 10/1
Another decent group for Manchester City as they aim to finally win the Champions League but it's not this stage of the competition where the problems usually arise; they have enough to win Group C with few issues along the way.
Their first test is Porto, the Portuguese outfit who have failed to win either of their last two games. They have also seen some big departures in the transfer window with Alex Telles leaving for Manchester United and Fabio Silva joining Wolves.
They have looked to fix it with loan incomings from the Premier League. Malang Sarr (Chelsea), Felipe Anderson (West Ham) and Marko Grujic (Liverpool) have all made the temporary switch to Portugal. The best bet in this game can be found in a more experienced player and that's backing Pepe to have three or more successful tackles on Wednesday night.
The centre-back became famous during his spell at Real Madrid but has become a regular in the side since his return to Porto and he is set for a busy game as Manchester City are expected to be on the front foot throughout.
We all know the quality of this City side, the new odds-on favourites for the Premier League title after the weekend, so little more needs to be said on them. Sergio Aguero's return will be problematic for any defence and Pepe is likely to be called upon on multiple occasions to try and stop the City attack.
Pepe has already posted a decent tackle count this season. It's not exactly an area of strength in recent years but he had four successful tackles in the away win at Boavista before following it up with another four in the defeat to Maritimo the following week.
There may be an appetite to back Pepe to be shown a card in this contest given his reputation but he's only had three fouls across his four games so far this season. That said, he did receive a yellow at Maritimo so it wouldn't be a terrible bet to back him to be booked. Referee Andris Treimanis has shown ten yellows across four international and European games this season.
Sky Bet have 13/8 on Pepe to have three or more successful tackles in this contest which looks a good bet based on how we expect it to go. City should be on the front foot throughout as they aim to continue a decent enough run of results; that will draw Pepe into committing the tackles.
Ultimately we can't argue with City's heavy odds-on price for success, even when we factor in their performances in this competition. The group stage is generally ok for them and they don't have to worry about stumbling blocks just yet. City on the -1 handicap is a bit better at 8/13, but Pepe provides the best price with his tackles at 13/8.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Porto (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Pepe to have 3+ tackles at 13/8
Opta facts
- Manchester City have won both of their previous two meetings with Porto, winning 2-1 away and 4-0 at home in the Last 32 of the UEFA Europa League in 2011/12.
- This will be Porto’s 21st away game against English opponents in European competition, while they are still looking for their first such victory (D3 L17). Indeed, they have failed to score in each of the last seven trips in this run.
- Manchester City have won each of their previous three home games against Portuguese opponents, most recently beating Sporting CP 3-2 in the 2011/12 UEFA Europa League. This will be the first time they’ve hosted Portuguese opponents in the UEFA Champions League.
- Porto haven’t won their opening group stage match in any of their last four UEFA Champions League campaigns (D3 L1), having won four such games in a row prior to that.
- The last team to beat Manchester City in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League was Lyon back in September 2018 (1-2) – Pep Guardiola’s side are unbeaten in 11 games since then, winning eight of them (D3).
Bayern Munich v Atletico Madrid
- 20:00 BST on BT Sport ESPN
- Match odds: Home 4/7 | Draw 16/5 | Away 17/4
The current holders begin their title defence with a tricky test against Atletico Madrid, but if the start to the new campaign has taught us anything, it's that they can pass it and begin in winning fashion.
Bayern may have been beaten 4-1 by Hoffenheim last month but they bounced back with four victories across all competitions; all four games bringing at least three goals scored.
One of the many positive elements of this Bayern team last season was the sheer number of shots they posted in this competition. The 21.9 average per game was the most of any team during the knockout stages. At a price of 6/4 with Sky Bet, the hosts having 20 or more total shots looks good value here.
Bayern's average in the Bundesliga this season is 19 shots per game and they've scored a huge 17 goals after just four fixtures. The forward line is firing and they are a strong fancy to progress to the latter stages of this competition once again.
Their average does increase for home fixtures. They had 22 attempts on goal in the 4-3 thriller against Hertha Berlin while there were the same amount in the 8-0 thrashing of Schalke in their opening game. Diego Simeone's Atletico are notoriously difficult to come up against but teams have shown that they can find a way through. Even with a strong defensive attitude, Bayern won't fear this game.
The outright odds accurately reflect the way this game should go and Bayern should progress from Group A with few issues cropping up along the way. Atletico have made a decent enough start to the LaLiga campaign but they should see defeat in their trip to Bavaria.
Score prediction: Bayern Munich 2-0 Atletico Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct on 1755 BST (19/10/20)
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