Champions League betting tips: Wednesday's preview, predictions & latest odds including Liverpool v Atletico Madrid

Recommended bets

1pt Felipe to be booked in Liverpool v Atletico Madrid at 3/1

1pt Saul Niguez to have 1+ shots on target in Liverpool v Atletico Madrid at 11/4

1pt Jadon Sancho to have 2+ shots on target in PSG v Borussia Dortmund at 7/2

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Liverpool v Atletico Madrid (0-1 agg)

All eyes will be on Anfield on Wednesday night as Liverpool look to get the better of Atletico Madrid and progress to the quarter-final.

Saul's early goal was the difference in the first leg and while the Reds are fancied given home advantage, the lack of an away goal could put the tie in Atletico's hands.

We're drawn into talk of the 'famous Anfield atmosphere' on European nights, especially after Barcelona collapsed last season, but a goal for the visitors puts Jurgen Klopp's side in a difficult position.

Atletico will be comfortable out of possession. The first leg saw them post 33% in this area and they still came out with victory. The first-half of that contest ended with the LaLiga side having 29% possession but two shots on target and, crucially, one goal.

Liverpool will have to find a way, and you wouldn't put it past them doing that, but Atletico's resilience under Diego Simeone is reflected in their recent results.

Only two of their last nine away games have seen them lose in 90 minutes. The Copa del Rey defeat to Leonesa and the Super Cup loss to Real both came in extra-time - a draw in 90 minutes would suit them perfectly.

In fact, no side has drawn more games in LaLiga than Atletico this season (12). On the road, only Athletic Bilbao can match their total of seven.

The overall look will be on Atletico's position in the table but their form across the course of the domestic campaign is ideal for what they need to accomplish over the 90 minutes.

Based on what we've seen from Simeone's Atletico over the years, particularly in this competition, there's a strong case to take the 6/4 on Atletico Madrid/Draw in the double chance market if we're exploring the outright result.

Danny Makkelie's appointment as referee could signal cards in this game. A pattern hasn't appeared in terms of average cards per game, ranging from no cards in Venlo's 1-1 draw with PSV to eight yellows and one red in Feyenoord's 3-2 victory over Waalwijk.

Sky Bet offering 50+ booking points at even money highlights that the money is behind a high number. Given the context of the game, we could see cards given how close it already is, and is expected to be, particularly later on as we enter the closing final ten minutes.

Rather than taking the overall booking points, it's worth siding with individual players to get carded and one price that sticks out is the 3/1 on Atletico centre-back Felipe being booked.

The 30-year-old has nine on his tally across all competitions this season and was booked within six minutes of their recent meeting at Espanyol.

Against this Liverpool attack, and with the hosts expected to be on the front foot throughout, it's likely that the Atletico defender will be drawn into committing fouls that catch the attention of the official.

His foul statistics support this. He's committed at least one foul in five of the six Champions League games he has been involved in this season, peaking at three against Lokomotiv Moscow, while there's been one or more in four of his last five domestic games.

At a price of 3/1, the value appears to be in siding with him to go into the referee's book here.

Elsewhere, there's one appealing bet in the shots on target market and that's backing Saul, the goalscorer in the first leg, having at least one effort on target at a price of 11/4.

The midfielder has had at least one shot in each of his last seven LaLiga fixtures while there's been a shot in five of his seven European appearances. That figure includes four in each of their away games at Juventus and Bayer Leverkusen.

Even with Liverpool expected to boast more opportunities on goal, Atletico will have their chances. The eye-catching attacking line hasn't quite done it for them this season, so instead it's worth siding with a midfielder who has the track record this season.

It will be a real battle for Atletico to come out on top here but Liverpool's recent shaky form gives them plenty of reason for optimism. The hosts are expected to brush aside Simeone's men, but there's value in going with success for the away team.

Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Atletico Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Best bet: Felipe to be booked in Liverpool v Atletico Madrid at 3/1

Best bet: Saul Niguez to have 1+ shots on target in Liverpool v Atletico Madrid at 11/4

Opta facts

• Liverpool have never lost against Atlético Madrid at Anfield in two previous European meetings, drawing 1-1 in the Champions League group stage in 2008-09 and winning 2-1 in the second leg of the Europa League semi-final in 2009-10.
• In major UEFA European competition, seven of Atlético Madrid’s 13 away visits to England have ended as draws (W2 D7 L4), with Los Colchoneros unbeaten in their last four matches there (W1 D3) since losing 1-2 to Liverpool in April 2010.
• On each of the last two occasions Liverpool have lost away from home in the first leg of a Champions League knockout match, they have progressed to the next round; the Reds eliminated Chelsea and Barcelona in the semi-finals in 2006-07 and 2018-19.
• Atlético Madrid have progressed from four of their previous five Champions League knockout ties when winning the first leg, failing only in last season’s last 16 against Juventus (2-0 first leg, 0-3 second leg).
• Jürgen Klopp is yet to lose a home Champions League game with Liverpool (W11 D4); Klopp’s last two home defeats in the competition have been in last 16 home leg matches with Borussia Dortmund in 2013-14 (1-2 v Zenit) and 2014-15 (0-3 v Juventus).
• Atlético Madrid have won just one of their last nine away Champions League knockout matches (W1 D2 L6), a 4-2 win at Bayer Leverkusen in February 2017.
• Should Liverpool be eliminated by Atlético Madrid, it would be the first time since a run of four seasons between 2004-05 and 2007-08 that the Champions League holders have failed to go beyond the last 16 in consecutive seasons, with Real Madrid going out at this stage last season against Ajax.
• In their 1-0 first leg defeat to Atlético, Liverpool failed to land a single shot on target in a Champions League game for only the second time in 33 matches under Jürgen Klopp (also October 2018 v Napoli).
• Saúl Ñíguez has scored 10 Champions League goals for Atlético Madrid, one of only two players to do so for the club along with Antoine Griezmann (21); nine of his 10 goals in the competition have been scored in the first half (90%), the second-highest percentage behind Michael Essien (91%, 10/11) of players with at least 10 CL goals.
• Liverpool forward Roberto Firmino has been directly involved in seven goals in five Champions League knockout appearances at Anfield (3 goals, 4 assists), averaging a goal or assist every 54 minutes.
• Atlético Madrid goalkeeper Jan Oblak has conceded just 37 goals in his first 49 Champions League appearances; the record for fewest goals conceded by a goalkeeper in his first 50 appearances is held by Dida (35), followed by Victor Valdes (38).

PSG v Borussia Dortmund (1-2 agg)

This is one of an increasing number of fixtures being played behind-closed-doors across Europe over the next few weeks.

There's questions to be asked on whether that does truly make it a neutral venue. Does a lack of a crowd take away home advantage? If so, Dortmund are in an ideal situation as they hold a 2-1 lead from the first leg.

The Bundesliga title hopefuls also come into the contest in excellent form. They've won their last five in all competitions, which includes a 2-1 success away at top-four rivals Borussia Monchengladbach last time out.

It's left Lucien Favre's men as the new main challengers to Bayern's dominance in Germany's top division. Their form post-winter break has helped massively towards this - with seven wins from eight league contests.

I watched the first leg of this in a pub in Leicester (glamour) but the entire place was in awe of Erling Haaland's antics as he netted both goals for the German side. He's now on a two-game drought though - the man is human after all.

It hasn't stopped the bookies putting a short price on Dortmund's new wonderkid netting anytime. 7/5 is the best price available on that happening, with some dropping as low as even money.

They'll need him to be on form once again as they look to overcome a pretty poor away record in Europe this season. Their domestic showings on their travels have been ok, but defeats to Inter and Barcelona on the road in the group stages doesn't put them in a good position here.

Haaland has arrived since then though and he could be the catalyst for success. It's not a one-man show though and Jadon Sancho's statistics this season are nothing short of eye-watering.

The 19-year-old has scored 14 goals and assisted a further 16 in just 23 Bundesliga games. Those numbers extend to 17 goals and 19 assists in 34 games across all competitions.

That's not only great news for Dortmund but also Gareth Southgate and England with the Euros coming in the summer. His age makes the numbers all the more impressive; it's almost scary to think what he will produce at his peak.

The best price on a goal anytime here is 2/1 but it's worth going into the statistics and taking his shots on target prices on. The youngster has posted at least one shot in all seven of his Champions League appearances.

13 of his 23 Bundesliga appearances have also seen at least two total shots, while the same can be said for four of his European matches. 7/2 is the best price available on Sancho having two or more shots on target in what should be quite an open contest - that's a price worth taking.

Dortmund are the odds-on favourites to progress to the quarter-final with PSG at even money. Much like Liverpool's clash with Atletico, the outright appeal comes from sitting on the fence and backing the draw, although we should expect more goals given the attacking quality on display.

Score prediction: PSG 2-2 Borussia Dortmund (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Best bet: Jadon Sancho to have 2+ shots on target at 7/2

Opta facts

• Paris Saint-Germain have never beaten Borussia Dortmund in European competition, drawing twice and losing once. Their only previous meeting at Parc des Princes was in November 2010, a goalless draw in the Europa League.
• Borussia Dortmund have won three and lost three of their six away Champions League matches against French sides, both winning and losing against each of Auxerre, Marseille and Monaco.
• PSG have never progressed to the next stage of the Champions League after losing the first leg of a knockout match, going out against Milan in 1994-95, Barcelona in 2014-15 and Real Madrid in 2017-18.
• Borussia Dortmund have always progressed to the next stage of the Champions League after winning the first leg of a knockout match, doing so on all four previous occasions. The only team with a better 100% progression rate after winning the first leg is Juventus (11/11).
• Paris SG have lost five of their last six Champions League knockout matches (W1), losing each of their last two at the Parc des Princes against Real Madrid in March 2018 and Manchester United in March 2019.
• Borussia Dortmund have lost each of their last five away Champions League knockout matches, last tasting victory in February 2014 in a 4-2 win against Zenit under Jürgen Klopp.
• PSG manager Thomas Tuchel’s win percentage in the Champions League knockout stages is 29% (two wins in seven), compared to 67% in the group stages (12 wins in 18). Five of Tuchel’s six Champions League defeats have been in the knockout stages (83%), the joint-highest percentage of any manager to lose five (also Leonardo with 5/6).
• Borussia Dortmund striker Erling Haaland is one of only five players to score 10+ goals in their debut campaign in the European Cup/Champions League – the only player to score more than 10 was Claudio Sulser, who scored 11 goals in six appearances in his first European Cup season in 1978-79 for Grasshopper Club Zürich.
• Neymar has been directly involved in 37 goals in 27 home Champions League appearances (20 for Barcelona, 7 for PSG), scoring 25 goals and assisting 12. The Brazilian has never ending on the losing side in a home game in the competition (W24 D3).
• Erling Haaland is averaging a goal every 46 minutes in the Champions League (10 goals in 464 minutes for RB Salzburg and Borussia Dortmund), the best ratio in the competition’s history of any player to play at least 250 minutes.

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Odds correct as of 1200 GMT on 10/03/20

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