Tom Carnduff previews Wednesday's action in the Champions League, including Tottenham's round of 16 fixture with RB Leipzig.
Recommended bets
2pts Serge Aurier to be shown a card in Tottenham v RB Leipzig at 3/1
2pts Duvan Zapata to have 2+ shots on target in Atalanta v Valencia at 11/8
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Tottenham v RB Leipzig
There's a strong case to be made for this turning out to be the highest-scoring tie of the entire round.
Tottenham's defensive woes continued at Aston Villa on Sunday but Son Heung-Min's strike with virtually the last kick of the game ensured that they would leave the West Midlands as 3-2 winners.
The round of 16 draw puts them against a side who have a real possibility of dethroning Bayern Munich in Germany. The controversial club are one of three in the chasing pack looking to end the trophy's long stay in Bavaria - although Julian Nagelsmann's men are in the best position as they sit just a point behind.
Leipzig hit a rough patch of form coming out of the winter break with defeats to Eintracht Frankfurt in the league and cup, while they secured draws with Borussia Monchengladbach and Bayern.
That game against the current champions was a real cliched tale of two halves. The first was a question of how Leipzig weren't behind, the second left you wondering how they weren't ahead.
An interesting factor of this Leipzig team is how they have changed their set-up when it comes to the big games. Nagelsmann has made them into a team that likes to have possession and dominate proceedings against the lesser teams.
However, Leipzig are happy to allow better opposition to see more of the ball. Their recent trip to the Allianz saw them have just 30% possession, while they had 44% at Dortmund and 35% at Leverkusen.
The pattern also remains for the reverse fixtures. It's part of the tactical plan from the Leipzig coach and we're likely to see similar in North London on Wednesday night. Tottenham should have a lot more of the possession with the visitors aiming to hit them on the counter.
The German side will be aware of the lack of pace in this Tottenham back line and look to expose that with speed. The problem is that, while they can break forward themselves effectively, they are vulnerable to the counter attack which is often where they end up conceding.
One thing that Tottenham do possess is players with good acceleration and speed in their attacking four. Lucas Moura and recent addition Steven Bergwijn will be problematic for Leipzig as they look to beat the press and get forward.
It'll be a characteristic of both teams though if Leipzig follow the pattern of allowing the opposition to have more of the ball. A high-scoring contest can therefore be expected, which always provides value across the markets.
You have to go up to 50+ booking points to get an odds-against price but instead it could be worth gambling on the 3/1 available on Serge Aurier to be shown a card.
The right-back looked more than vulnerable last time out in a performance that wasn't a one-off. That area of the pitch should be a target area for Tottenham in the next transfer window, even with the recent emergence of Japhet Tanganga.
It's not just that recent form that makes Aurier a good bet but also the fact that Leipzig will also look to exploit Tottenham's weak right side through star striker Timo Werner.
The distribution from the centre-backs allows them to play balls over the top for the forward line to chase on to. They are also likely to put Werner in a role on the left side of attack to accommodate this and, in a battle between the two players, the Leipzig man is going to be the winner.
Even with the news of Son's injury, sitting on the fence and backing the draw is the best outright outcome here. Given how open the game is though, goals should be expected and the 8/13 on over 2.5 looks a fair price.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-2 RB Leipzig (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Serge Aurier to be shown a card at 3/1
Opta facts
- This will be the first encounter between Tottenham and RB Leipzig. It’s also the first time the team from Leipzig is facing an English club in a competitive fixture whilst Spurs will be facing German opposition in the UCL round of 16 for the second consecutive season, after knocking out Borussia Dortmund 4-0 on aggregate in 2018/19.
- The only previous game between Tottenham and a German team at the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium ended in a 7-2 win for Bayern Munich, back in October this season. In fact, Tottenham’s two Champions League games against German opposition this season have produced 13 goals.
- Finalists in 2018/19, Tottenham are in the knockout stages of the Champions League for the third consecutive season – they had only made it past the group phase once before (2010/11).
- RB Leipzig have reached the Champions League knockout stages for the first time in their history. Wolfsburg are the last German team – outside of Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund – to make it past the round of 16, back in 2015/16.
- Tottenham conceded 14 goals in this season’s Champions League group phase, the highest tally among the remaining teams in the competition. Half of those goals came in their home game against Bayern Munich (2-7).
- Only one of Tottenham’s 21 Champions League home games has ended in a draw (0-0 v AC Milan, March 2011).
- The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has seen more goals than any other venue in this season’s Champions League (20 goals; 11 for Tottenham, 9 against).
- RB Leipzig lost their first two Champions League away games but are since unbeaten in their last four matches on the road (W3 D1), scoring 10 goals.
- Tottenham Hotspur manager José Mourinho last made it past the round of 16 of the Champions League six years ago, leading Chelsea to the semi-finals in 2013/14. It’s also nearly 10 years since he last reached the final, with Inter Milan in 2010.
- Tottenham forward Son Heung-Min has scored nine goals in his last 10 Champions League starts. In the knockout stages with Spurs, his record is five goals in seven starts.
- Between them, Timo Werner (6) and Emil Forsberg (5) have scored over half of RB Leipzig’s all-time goals in the Champions League (55%, 11 out of 20).
Atalanta v Valencia
Both sides would have been extremely satisfied when this tie came out from the draw as they manage to avoid the big-hitters.
That said, the hosts will fancy their chances of progression given Valencia's struggles in LaLiga this season. They sit seventh in Spain's top-flight while Atalanta hold a top-four spot in Serie A.
The Italian side did well to progress in what appeared an open group below Manchester City, who were the expected winners. They lost their first three but two wins from their last two resulted in them beating Shakhtar to second place.
They'll take confidence from that and have a great chance of holding a good lead for the second leg with home advantage here. Atalanta have the fifth-best home record in Serie A this season, while Valencia are 11th in the LaLiga away standings.
They've only managed three wins in their 11 domestic games on the road. Their last two have been defeats by three goals or more and, while they are strong at home, the tie may well be over before it gets to the reverse fixture.
Atalanta were involved in our pre-season predictions with Duvan Zapata tipped as top goalscorer. The form of Erling Haaland would have denied him, but a muscle tear injury which kept him out of action for over two months didn't help either.
The upturn in form for his side would have undoubtedly have seen him involved in the goals in the latter group stage matches. Especially when you consider the fact that he had six goals in seven Serie A fixtures prior to the injury.
He is returning to form though after making a comeback in early January and has two goals in his last four outings.
His threat in the box is not only highlighted in the goals column. Over his last five league games, the Colombian forward has posted a huge total of 18 shots - that includes four on target in their surprise home defeat to SPAL a month ago.
It's worth playing on recent averages and backing more shots in a contest that they should win. Two or more shots on target for the striker is available at a best price of 11/8, although the value remains at any price above even money.
Score prediction: Atalanta 3-1 Valencia (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Duvan Zapata to have 2+ shots on target at 11/8
Opta facts
- This will be the first encounter between Atalanta and Valencia. It’s also the first time the team from Bergamo will face Spanish opposition in a competitive fixture.
- Valencia have won only one of their eight away games against Italian opposition in the Champions League (D2 L5), a 1-0 victory against Roma in the 2002/03 second group stages. They have also failed to find the net in six of those eight games.
- Atalanta are the first Champions League debutant to make it to the knockout stages of the Champions League since Leicester City in 2016/17 – the English side were eventually knocked out in the quarter-finals by Atlético Madrid.
- Under the current format (since 2003/04), Atalanta are the first team to qualify for the last 16 of the Champions League after losing their opening three group games.
- Atalanta won two of their six games in this season’s Champions League group phase (against Dinamo Zagreb and Shakhtar Donetsk), the lowest tally alongside Lyon among the 16 remaining teams.
- Valencia are in the knockout stages of the Champions League for the first time since 2012/13. It’s been 13 years since they last made it past the round of 16 (2006/07).
- Valencia have never won an away game in the Champions League knockout stages (D4 L5). They’ve also only ever kept one clean sheet in those nine outings, a goalless draw against Leeds United at Elland Road in the semi-finals back in 2000/01.
- Atalanta scored only eight goals despite posting an Expected Goals tally of 12.9 in this season’s group stages – the 4.9 xG differential is the biggest among the 16 teams left in this season’s competition.
- 78% of Valencia’s goals in the group stages came after the 60th minute (7/9), the highest proportion among the 16 remaining teams in this season’s Champions League.
- Atalanta’s Josip Ilicic won more fouls than any other player in the final third of the pitch in this season’s Champions League group phase (8). Two of those fouls led to a penalty, the joint-most in the group stages.
- Valencia forward Rodrigo has scored/assisted four goals in five Champions League games this season (2 goals, 2 assists), that’s more than in his previous 24 matches in the competition (2 goals, 1 assist).
Odds correct as of 1200 GMT (18/02/20)
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