In-form Willian looks the man to back in Wednesday's Premier League clash between Arsenal and Chelsea, according to our Andy Schooler.
Arsenal v Chelsea (1945 GMT, Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event)
It’s funny how you can frame some matches.
On one hand, this looks like a real powerhouse battle – the hosts are unbeaten in eight and have been flying on home soil, while the visitors have lost just once in 14 and know victory will take them second in the Premier League.
Yet even if Chelsea do win, they will be at least 11 points behind leaders Manchester City (this preview is being written prior to their Tuesday game), while an Arsenal victory won’t even be enough to lift them inside the top four.
That battle for Champions League places is essentially the sum of this one and in that sense Arsenal need the points more than Chelsea.
The Blues long had a hold over the Gunners in this fixture, both at home and away, but that grip has loosened in recent years and indeed the last seven league meetings at the Emirates have been split – two wins apiece and three draws.
Chelsea’s last visit saw them beaten 3-0 – a result which actually proved pivotal to their title success of last season for it was after that hammering that Antonio Conte switched to a back three. The rest, as they say, is history.
Given their recent form which has seen 10 of those aforementioned 14 matches won, it’s hard to envisage a repeat, particularly with injuries beginning to mount up once more at Arsenal.
Sead Kolasinac has joined Aaron Ramsey, Olivier Giroud and Nacho Monreal on the sidelines, while Laurent Koscielny has been given only a 30 per cent chance of playing and Mesut Ozil remains a doubt too.
The defensive problems on that list will certainly encourage Chelsea, especially when you consider Arsenal’s previous meetings with members of the Big Six this season have resulted in them conceding three in home games with both Manchester United and Liverpool, while they’ve also shipped three at Manchester City and four at Anfield. Admittedly they did draw 0-0 at Stamford Bridge too.
However, the evidence of those recent Emirates meetings with United and Liverpool suggests Arsenal are incapable of shutting up shop at present and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another open game.
Over 3.5 goals is on offer at 7/4 – and that was landed in all four of those aforementioned matches.
What puts me off is Chelsea’s undoubted ability to close games down. Their record against the Big Six is contrasting with four of their five such games having delivered fewer than 2.5 goals.
So instead I’m going to turn to one of the form players to produce the goods in this fixture, namely Willian.
He’s not been a regular for much of the season but he’s forced his way into the starting XI a lot of late and he’s certainly played a key role over the past few weeks.
The Brazilian has netted in three of his last five starts, while he was unlucky to be denied in the goalless draw at Everton where he saw an effort cleared off the line.
It’s not just his goals that have caught the eye though. He’s sparkled, providing assists and making key passes and dribbles, all of which has made him a real threat – akin to that he posed during Chelsea’s much-maligned 2015/16 campaign when he was the club’s best performer.
Going up against what will be a weakened Arsenal defence, one which has shown its vulnerability time and again against quality opposition, Willian looks worth backing in two markets.
I’ll take the 4/1 (general) about him scoring at any time but I’ll split my available stake to also back the 29-year-old in the man-of-the-match market.
Betfred and BetVictor both offer 11/1 here but the former settle off the Sky Sports decision, while the latter rely on the Opta-based WhoScored? Ratings system.
I’ll go with the Sky commentators, who will know coming in that Willian is a man in form and that usually means a player is getting a head start on many of his market rivals.
Prediction: Arsenal 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
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Opta facts
- Arsenal won this fixture 3-0 last season, after a five-game winless run against them in the Premier League at the Emirates (D3 L2).
- In all competitions, no team has won more away games at the Emirates Stadium than Chelsea (5, level with Man Utd).
- The last time Arsenal didn’t lose either Premier League meeting with Chelsea in a season was in 2011-12 (W1 D1), while the last time they kept a clean sheet in both league meetings was 1998-99.
- Arsenal have failed to score in seven of their last nine games against Chelsea in the Premier League, netting just four goals in total in this run.
- There have been six red cards in the last seven meetings between these sides in all competitions, with Chelsea having a player sent off in each of the last three.
- Chelsea have lost their last two Premier League London derbies this season (vs Crystal Palace and West Ham). They’ve not lost three in a row since the 2001-02 season when they lost to West Ham, Charlton and Arsenal between October and December.
- This will be Arsene Wenger’s 60th meeting with Chelsea in all competitions – making them the side he’s faced the most as Arsenal boss (W22 D16 L21).
- This will be the sixth meeting between Arsene Wenger and Antonio Conte in all competitions since the start of last season, with the Chelsea boss managing just one win from the previous five (D2 L2).
- Cesc Fabregas netted 19 goals at the Emirates as an Arsenal player, however he’s yet to score there in the competition as an opposition player (three appearances for Chelsea).
Posted at 1510 GMT on 02/01/18.