Saturday's evening game in the Premier League comes from the Amex, as Brighton host Watford. George Pitts looks at the betting.
Recommended bets
1pt Watford to score 2+ goals at 21/10
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Brighton v Watford
- 1730 GMT kick-off on BT Sport 1
Two sides who should really have spent all week working on their defensive shape after recent showings.
Brighton have slipped back to within two points of the drop zone after failing to win their last five games and, more concerning, is the six goals they have conceded in their last two outings.
First in a defeat at Bournemouth and last week in a draw at West Ham which will feel like a victory given their two late goals.
Watford, meanwhile, after their revival under Nigel Pearson, have now failed to win their last three Premier League games. They have conceded five goals in their last two games and were victims of a late comeback as 10-man Everton came from two down to win at Vicarage Road.
With such poor records at the back, this game could easily go either way - a low-scorer after shoring up or, simply, a goal fest.
With both sides scrapping at the bottom and frightened of giving anything away, the feeling is it could be closer to the former.
Backing the visitors to win and under 3.5 total goals at 7/2 is incredibly tempting, but in the event of a higher scoring draw, the 2/1 available on the visitors to score a couple is much more appealing, even at a lesser price.
Pearson will have worked his men hard this week and the final outcome could ultimately decide whether his Watford players are allowed some time off or whether they are made to train for the whole time between their 15-day mid-season break. Perfect motivation.
They hit three without reply past relegation rivals Aston Villa and Bournemouth in the last six weeks and are well capable of getting the result at the Amex, where inconsistent Brighton have only won four times in 12 attempts this term.
As Dale Tempest notes in our latest Premier League weekly podcast - previewing the upcoming action, with debate and our latest fancies - winger Ismaila Sarr is key to Watford's hopes and, if fit, his quality could prove to be key here.
Prediction: Brighton 1-2 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Watford to score 2+ goals at 21/10
Key stats
- Brighton are looking to secure their first league double over Watford since 1990-91, when the sides were playing in the second tier.
- Watford have lost just one of their last seven away league games against Brighton (W3 D3), though that defeat did come in the Premier League in December 2017 (0-1).
- Brighton won the reverse fixture against Watford 3-0 on the opening weekend of the season, scoring more goals in that victory as they had in their previous seven league meetings with the Hornets combined (2).
- Brighton have won just one of their last 10 Premier League games (D5 L4), a 2-0 victory over Bournemouth in December. Indeed, no side has won fewer Premier League points in 2020 than the Seagulls (3).
- Watford have lost their last two Premier League games, conceding five goals in these matches; this following a run where they’d lost just one of eight league games (W4 D3), across which they’d shipped just four goals.
- Brighton have conceded three goals in each of their last two Premier League games, losing at Bournemouth before drawing with West Ham. They’d only conceded 3+ goals in two of their first 23 games under Graham Potter this season.
- Watford have lost 15 points from losing positions in the Premier League this season, including six across their last two matches. Only in 2017-18 (21) have they lost more in a single campaign in the competition.
- Watford have become the seventh team to lose consecutive Premier League games thanks to goals scored in the 90th minute, and the first since Swansea in September 2017. No side has ever lost three consecutive games in such a fashion in the competition.
- Glenn Murray netted his first league goal of the season in Brighton’s 3-3 draw with West Ham last time out – at 36y 129d, he’s the oldest player to score in the Premier League this season.
- Since Nigel Pearson’s first game in charge of Watford, only Mohamed Salah and Sergio Agüero (7 each) have scored more Premier League goals than Troy Deeney (5). Indeed, in the same timeframe, the Watford skipper has been involved in more top-flight goals than any other English player in the competition (6 – 5 goals, 1 assist).
Odds correct as of 1630 GMT on 06/02/20
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