Jake Pearson previews Wales' World Cup play-off fixture against Austria, providing his best bet and score prediction.
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Football betting tips: World Cup play-offs
1pt Wales to win in 90 minutes at 19/10 (Unibet)
Wales are two victories away from qualifying for their first World Cup finals since 1958.
Robert Page’s men qualified for the play-offs thanks to a second-place finish in Group E, with only Belgium finishing ahead of the Cymru, and they should arrive into this fixture with plenty of confidence on the back of an impressive qualification campaign.
Their only defeat in qualifying came against Roberto Martinez’ men in Belgium, with the reverse fixture seeing Wales hold the world’s number one ranked team to a 1-1 draw.
In fact, Wales are unbeaten in their last 16 home fixtures, their last defeat coming against Denmark back in November 2018.
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Thursday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Wales 9/5 | Draw 21/10 | Austria 13/8
Austria, meanwhile, qualified for the play-offs via their UEFA Nations League finishing position, actually finishing fourth in their World Cup qualification group.
Despite a relatively successful stint at Euro 2020, losing to eventual champions Italy in extra-time of the round of 16, Austria’s results in qualifying for this tournament have been poor, their only victories coming against the Faroe Islands, Moldova and Israel.
Wales are ranked ten places higher than Austria according to FIFA, and though they are not always a hugely reliable assessment of a teams’ capabilities, in this case the rankings appear a fair reflection of the quality gulf between the two sides.
The current prices available for either side to win this tie do not reflect Wales’ superiority, however.
Two evenly matches sides playing at a neutral venue should both be given a 36% chance of victory, meaning a win for both teams would be priced at 7/4.
Generally speaking, home advantage is worth around 0.2 of a goal, which, when applied to the aforementioned probabilities, would give the home side a 41% chance of victory (7/5), with the away side’s chances of victory dropping to 32% (21/10).
The current prices suggest Wales have a 35% chance of victory, which suggests the layers perceive Austria to be the superior team.
Page’s men should be much shorter in the betting, and for that reason, backing a WALES WIN appeals as the best play in what is a huge fixture for Gareth Bale and co, who, after speculation around his fitness, could well be fit for this tie.
Bale was omitted from Real Madrid’s 23-man El Clasico matchday squad against Barcelona on Sunday, with reports in Spain saying the Wales captain was absent due to back pain.
But Bale has joined up with the Wales camp ahead of the play-off semi-final against Austria – and the Dragons expect the 100-times capped forward will make Thursday’s clash at the Cardiff City Stadium.
Bale's inclusion in the starting XI would be a massive boost, but so too will be Aaron Ramsey's return to form, the former Juventus man netting for his new club Rangers against Dundee on Sunday.
Wales have quality among their ranks, and look a good price to set up a tie against either Scotland or Ukraine in the next round of the play-offs.
Wales v Austria best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Wales to win in 90 minutes at 19/10 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Wales 2-0 Austria (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1120 GMT (21/03/22)
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