Aston Villa v Sheffield United betting preview: Prediction, latest odds & best bets in our Premier League tips

Recommended bets

1pt Aston Villa and under 3.5 goals at 9/4

1pt Aston Villa to keep a clean sheet at 2/1

0.5pt Jack Grealish to score from outside the box at 20/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Aston Villa v Sheffield United

• 1800 BST kick-off on Sky Sports
• Match Odds: Home 8/5 | Draw 7/4 | Away 9/4

This is a meeting between two sides whose fortunes have been very different since football resumed.

A superb late rally from Aston Villa saw them avoid relegation from the Premier League on the final day of last season, while Sheffield United, who up until the pandemic hit had exceeded all expectations, rather petered away to eventually finish ninth.

Villa began their campaign proper with a 3-1 win over Burton in the Carabao Cup last week, but this will be their opening game in the top flight. The Blades were stunned by two goals in the first minutes against Wolves, going on to lose 2-0 at Bramall Lane.

Their respective upturns and downturns are summed up by pure numbers: Villa unbeaten in five, three goals conceded; Sheff Utd winless in five, nine goals conceded.

The value is with the hosts at a best price of 12/7, but the best approach is to expect a tight encounter. Villa and under 3.5 goals at 9/4 is where I'm heading. I actually think this match is more likely to be a one or two-goal affair, but that extra goal just gives us a bit of wriggle room.

Eight of Villa's nine Premier League wins last season were under 3.5 goals, and only once did they score more than twice themselves. So to back something that covers 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 is a smart play.

What encourages me to think that this will be cagey is that Villa and the Blades shared what otherwise has been a forgettable goalless draw in the opening match of Project Restart back in June.

It was memorable for the wrong reasons, of course, as Hawk Eye failed, meaning Villa keeper Orjan Nyland got away with taking the ball over his own goal-line.

However, in that game Dean Smith's side showed the first signs of a blueprint that would ultimately prove to be the basis for survival as they conceded only twice in their final four matches.

No team in the Premier League's top 12 scored fewer than Sheffield United's 39 goals last term, so Villa will hope the Blades' scoring problems will help them to continue their strong defensive improvement.

Both teams are 2/1 to keep a clean sheet, but it's Villa who I'm backing to do so.

And here's one that I just feel I can't leave out of the staking plan in small stakes having seen how superb Jack Grealish was in the Carabao Cup, albeit against Sky Bet League One opposition.

The Villa captain, who had just signed a new five-year contract, was effervescent throughout, capping his performance with a brilliant 20-yard volley after being picked out at the edge of the area from a corner.

Now a full England international, Grealish looks to be entering a purple patch and is set to build on a superb 2019/20 campaign. A Sky Bet boosted 20/1 for him to score from outside the box is huge, especially if that training-ground routine is attempted by Villa again. I'm at the very least interested, to small stakes anyway.

In open play, Smith is certainly making an effort to push him further up the field, and goals in successive games for the first time since October would be a welcome reward for that.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-0 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Best Bets:

• Aston Villa and under 3.5 goals at 9/4
• Aston Villa to keep a clean sheet at 2/1
• Jack Grealish to score from outside the box at 20/1

Opta facts

• Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last 13 home league meetings with Sheffield United (W7 D6), including all four games against them at Villa Park in the Premier League (W3 D1).
• Sheffield United are unbeaten in each of their last four league games against Aston Villa (W2 D2). Villa were one of only two sides that the Blades kept a clean sheet in both of their Premier League meetings with last season (also Crystal Palace).
• Aston Villa have lost their first home game in four of their last five Premier League seasons (D1), last winning their opening top-flight match of a campaign at Villa Park back in 2011-12 against Blackburn Rovers (3-1).
• Aston Villa won both of their final two home league games of the 2019-20 campaign; they last won three consecutive home Premier League matches back in October 2007 under the management of Martin O’Neill.
• Sheffield United haven’t started a top-flight campaign with two consecutive defeats since 1973-74.
• Sheffield United are winless in six away league games (D2 L4) since beating Crystal Palace 1-0 in February. They have scored just two goals across these six outings combined. Indeed, the Blades lost four of their last five away league games of the 2019-20 season (D1), more than their previous 29 league matches on the road before this (W11 D15 L3).
• Aston Villa are winless in their last eight Premier League games in the month of September (D2 L6), since winning 1-0 against Liverpool at Anfield in 2014.
• Sheffield United have lost each of their last four league games, last losing more consecutively in the 2013-14 campaign (6 in League One), and last losing five in a row in the top-flight back in September 1991.
• Including play-offs, no player scored more league goals in the top four tiers of English football last season than Aston Villa’s new signing Ollie Watkins (26).
• Billy Sharp has scored four goals in his last three league appearances against Aston Villa, including a hat-trick for Sheffield United in a 3-3 draw in February 2019.

Odds correct at 1315 BST 20/09/20

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