Sporting Life
Aston Villa 2-0 Crystal Palace: Trezeguet celebrates scoring at Villa Park
Aston Villa 2-0 Crystal Palace: Trezeguet celebrates scoring at Villa Park

Premier League betting tips: Betting previews, score predictions & best bets for Tuesday's action

By Paul Higham
Football
Tue July 21, 2020 · 4y ago

Relegation could be decided on Tuesday as Watford and Aston Villa are both in action against Man City and Arsenal. Paul Higham looks at the betting.

Recommended bets

1pt Man City to beat Watford & over 3.5 goals at 17/10

2pts Arsenal to beat Aston Villa at 23/20

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Aston Villa v Arsenal

Villa already know that they need at least three points from two games to have any chance of survival, but their gameplan here might change drastically given what happens in the earlier game at Watford.

They'll have to match Watford's result just to keep it going to the final day, but a heavy Hornets defeat would give Villa the chance to get a draw here and know that beating West Ham on Sunday would force Watford to beat Arsenal to stay up.

Dean Smith would prefer to get three points against the Gunners first in any case, but the FA Cup finalists will be flying after beating Liverpool and Man City in just a few days. Mikel Arteta is rightly proud but he must watch out for this game being a big comedown for them.

It's OK defending for your lives then springing to hit teams like Liverpool and City on the break, but they'll have to come out and play against Villa, which is a different prospect altogether, but it's still a game they have enough quality to win a bit more comfortably than their odds suggest.

Arsenal's overall away record isn't great but they've won twice recently at Wolves and Southampton and also beat Sheffield United in the FA Cup - the improvement seems to be coming.

Villa Park is hardly a fortress, only Norwich and Southampton have fewer points at home, and these are the types of games when the home crowd will be a huge miss. The fanatical support can really keep struggling teams going and you fear that this could all just be a bit too much for Villa against a side so high on confidence. With the price I'm happy enough taking the Gunners to win this straight up without adding too many caveats.

Prediction: Aston Villa 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Best bet: Arsenal to beat Aston Villa at 23/20

Aston Villa – Arsenal Opta stats

  • Aston Villa are winless in their last 17 Premier League home games against Arsenal (D7 L10) since a 3-2 victory in December 1998.
  • Arsenal have won their last seven meetings with Aston Villa in all competitions by an aggregate score of 23-3.
  • Arsenal have won 12 away Premier League matches at Villa Park – at no venue have they won more (also 12 at Goodison Park). The only team they’ve won more away games against are West Ham (13 – 11 at Upton Park, 2 at London Stadium).
  • Among the 50 Premier League fixtures to have been played at least 40 times, only Aston Villa vs West Ham (36.6%) have seen a lower percentage of home wins than Arsenal vs Aston Villa (36.7% - 18/49). However, the home side has triumphed in three of the last four meetings, as many as in the previous 17 between the teams.
  • Arsenal are unbeaten in their final away game in each of their last nine Premier League seasons (W6 D3), since losing 1-2 at Blackburn in 2009-10.

Watford v Man City

Relegation could all be settled on Tuesday if caretaker manager Hayden Mullins can somehow engineer something against City, who will be smarting after their FA Cup semi-final defeat.

Just a point would send Bournemouth down, and if they get a result that Villa can't at least match later on then Dean Smith's men will follow the Cherries into the Championship. That should have been an IF obviously as it's a mighty big one.

The ruthless Pozzo family have taken a big gamble in getting rid of Nigel Pearson with two games to go - they may think they're safe but this game and a clash with Arsenal hardly scream "points" to anyone. Defeat here and it'll be all too close for comfort on Sunday.

And defeat is what it should be, as Pep Guardiola will be furious with losing at Wembley, and even if he makes changes it's usually swapping superstar for superstar without any massive drop in quality. He won't want to add to those nine league defeats this season either.

The Hornets did beat Liverpool here and have six wins in their last ten home league games - while City have now lost four of their last six games on the road. Quite how they've managed that with this squad remains a mystery.

City have won 14-0 on aggregate in their last two meetings with Watford, who haven't kept a Premier League clean sheet since February, so this game screams goals. Half of City's games have gone over 3.5 (priced 11/10 here) and they've scored four once and five three times since the restart.

After initally looking at a City win and BTTS (13/8) you look and see Watford don't score many, and City's defence has, in fact, kept six cleans sheets since the restart. Watford just may not have enough of the ball to convert.

There's always the chance from a set piece for the Hornets, so we're going for a high-scoring City win just in case.

Prediction: Watford 0-4 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Best bet: Man City to beat Watford & over 3.5 goals at 17/10

Watford v Manchester City Opta stats

  • Watford’s biggest ever top-flight home defeat (0-6 in September 2017) and biggest ever overall league defeat (0-8 in September 2019) have come against Manchester City.
  • Manchester City have won their last 12 games against Watford in all competitions by an aggregate score of 46-6, including an 8-0 victory in the reverse fixture in September.
  • Man City need to score four goals in this match to equal the Premier League record for goals against an opponent in a single season (12), having won 8-0 in the reverse game. The record is held by Blackburn (1995-96 vs Nottingham Forest) and Spurs (2009-10 vs Wigan); City have averaged four goals per game under Pep Guardiola against Watford in the Premier League.
  • Pep Guardiola has made 137 changes to his Manchester City starting XI in the Premier League this season – only Man Utd in 2013-14 (144) and 2008-09 (140) have made more in a single campaign.
  • Gabriel Jesus has scored in 33 Premier League games for Manchester City and ended on the winning side in 32 of those (D1), a win ratio of 97% - the best of any player to have scored in at least 20 games in Premier League history. City have won the last 30 league games when Jesus has found the net.

Odds correct as of 1532 BST on 20/7/20

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