Premier League tips: Betting previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Tuesday's action

Recommended bets

1pt Watford to beat Aston Villa (-1 handicap) at 17/4

1pt Lewis Dunk to score anytime in Bournemouth v Brighton at 19/2

1pt 5+ corners each team in Sheff United v Man City at 11/4

0.5pt Yerry Mina to score anytime at 16/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

SUPER 6: Entries by 1930 GMT on Tuesday January 21 - enter here

Aston Villa v Watford (Tom Carnduff)

Two teams who are battling to avoid the drop but if you were to pick one to stay up at this moment in time, you're likely to side with the visitors.

Nigel Pearson has overseen a revival of a Hornets side who looked down-and-out and almost certain for a return to the Sky Bet Championship when he took over.

Watford have now moved above Villa in the standings and could push themselves four points clear of the drop zone with victory.

The away side are a best price of 29/20 for victory, which is very appealing value given the recent form of both teams.

Villa are now winless in four across all competitions and were hammered 6-1 by Manchester City in their last home game. By contrast, Watford are currently enjoying a seven-game unbeaten run which included earning a point against Tottenham last time out.

It's worth siding with Watford to get another win here, particularly when you analyse the performances that have gone into Villa's recent home results.

The 6-1 defeat to City speaks for itself, but they should consider themselves lucky to have beaten Norwich the week before. Villa had less of the ball and fewer opportunities and the Canaries deserved a point at the very least.

Then there was a 3-1 defeat by a revitalised Southampton side and a convincing 4-1 loss to Leicester at the beginning of December. Injuries haven't helped, but Villa have been an easy team for others to get past.

Watford's last away game saw a 3-0 win over struggling Bournemouth and there would be little surprise to see a similar outcome here - particularly given Villa's lack of a striker after Wesley's long-term injury.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-2 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Best bet: Watford to beat Aston Villa (-1 handicap) at 17/4

Opta facts

• Aston Villa have lost their last three Premier League meetings with Watford, having been unbeaten in their first four such games against the Hornets (W3 D1).
• Watford have scored three goals in each of their last three Premier League games against Aston Villa, winning each time. They’d failed to score in any of their first four against them in the competition (D1 L3).
• Aston Villa have kept a clean sheet in all three of their evening kick-offs at home in the Premier League this season (7pm or later), winning two and drawing one.
• Aston Villa have lost three of their last four home league games (W1), more than they had in their first seven at Villa Park this season (W3 D2 L2). They’ve shipped 13 goals in those three defeats, six more than they had in their first seven home games this term (7).
• Following their 3-0 win at Bournemouth in their last away game, Watford are looking to secure back-to-back league wins on the road for the first time since a run of three in September 2017.
• Watford are unbeaten in six Premier League games (W4 D2), keeping a clean sheet in four of them. Only once have they had a longer run without defeat in the top-flight (7 between April-May 1985).
• Watford have failed to score in a league-high 11 different Premier League games this season – one more than they did in the whole of 2018-19 (10).
• Watford’s Troy Deeney has scored five goals in his three Premier League games against Aston Villa, including two in the reverse fixture at Vicarage Road. Against no other opponent has the Watford captain scored more goals in the competition.
• As well as having the most goals (7) and assists (5) of any Aston Villa player in the Premier League this season, Jack Grealish has also had more shots (45) and created more chances (54) than any of his teammates.
• Excluding Anfield, new Aston Villa goalkeeper Pepe Reina has kept more Premier League clean sheets at Villa Park than he has at any other ground in the competition (5 in 8 games).

Bournemouth v Brighton (Tom Carnduff)

Bournemouth are in real trouble and now find themselves at a very short 1/2 price with Sky Bet for relegation from the Premier League.

Eddie Howe's men have lost their last four league games and sit three points adrift of safety. They also hold the worst home record in the top-flight with just two victories from eleven games.

Brighton have had their struggles on the road but they should fancy their chances against this Cherries outfit. They're also without a win in four and will know the importance of this fixture in the battle for survival.

For what it's worth I firmly believe Albion will remain a Premier League outfit next season but it's always better to have safety secured at the earliest possible point. A win here will be a positive step in the right direction.

Brighton hold favouritism in this game at a price that is floating around 6/4 but it's always a big risk going into the outright markets when both sides are struggling to find consistent form.

Instead, it's worth seeking value in the goalscorer market and the price that immediately jumps off the page is the 19/2 available on Brighton defender Lewis Dunk to score anytime in this contest.

The Albion man has provided a real attacking presence this season despite only having two goals to his name. Their 2-0 home win over Bournemouth at the end of December was the only game in his last ten Premier League games where he's failed to register at least one shot.

His stature comes in useful at set-piece situations but he's also demonstrated an ability to line-up on free-kick duties when the opportunity presents itself.

Brighton should find the net at least once based on their track record. Six of their last seven Premier League away games have seen both teams scoring - which includes fixtures against Tottenham, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United.

Therefore it's worth looking towards the goalscorer market and Dunk's price provides the most appeal.

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Best bet: Lewis Dunk to score anytime at 19/2

Opta facts

• Bournemouth have won four of their last five home league meetings with Brighton (D1), winning both of their Premier League games against the Seagulls at the Vitality Stadium.
• Brighton are looking to complete the league double over Bournemouth for the first time since the 2007-08 campaign when the sides were competing in League One.
• Brighton have won only one of their 10 Premier League games against fellow south coast sides (D4 L5), though it was in their last such match – a 2-0 win against Bournemouth last month.
• Brighton have won just one of their eight Premier League games played on Tuesdays (D2 L5), losing each of the last four in a row. The Seagulls have lost all four of their away games on Tuesday in the competition.
• Bournemouth are winless in their last five Premier League home games (D1 L4) – they’ve never gone six without a home win in the competition, last doing so in October 2011 in League One.
• After keeping a clean sheet in two of their first three away league games this season, Brighton have conceded in each of their last eight on the road (W1 D1 L6).
• Bournemouth have picked up just four points from their last 36 available in the Premier League (W1 D1 L10). The Cherries have also failed to score in seven of their last nine top- flight matches, including each of the last four in a row.
• Brighton have dropped 14 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season – more than they have in any of their three campaigns in the competition (13 in both 2017- 18 and 2018-19).
• Bournemouth are averaging just 10 shots per game at home in the Premier League this season – since we have such stats from 2003-04, only Reading in 2012-13 have ever averaged fewer at home in a single Premier League campaign (9.7).
• Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson is without a Premier League goal since September, failing to score with any of his last 21 shots in the competition.

Crystal Palace v Southampton (Tom Carnduff)

Southampton were enjoying a three-game winning streak that has fired them away from the relegation zone but were stunned by Wolves last time out.

Jan Bednarek and Shane Long had fired the Saints into a 2-0 lead at half-time but Wolves hit back with three goals to claim victory.

Palace picked up a good draw away at Manchester City but that has been the story of their recent form. Their last four Premier League games have all finished as score draws.

There could be a case to be made for taking the 6/4 on a Southampton win here, where they hold favouritism, but again like most fixtures involving teams below the top-six there is always a degree of uncertainty.

There seems to be that added caution of not wanting to lose a fixture, particularly against a team in a similar league position. That could be a reason behind Palace's recent run of results.

I'll go for a Southampton victory in my Super 6 predictions but the corners market is the best avenue to go down for this game.

Particularly, the 11/10 price with Sky Bet for Southampton to take more corners than Palace looks like the most appealing outcome on Tuesday night.

The Saints took more corners than Leicester in their recent victory at the King Power Stadium while they also 'won' this stat by a huge total of nine in their away game at Newcastle a month ago.

For Palace, they've taken less corners than their opponents in three of their last four Premier League games - with the game against West Ham seeing them take more by a small margin of one.

It's worth playing to the recent averages in this game and backing the visitors to better this statistic at full-time.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Best bet: Southampton to take more corners than Crystal Palace at 11/10

Opta facts

• Crystal Palace have lost four of their last six Premier League home games against Southampton (W2), including each of the last two without scoring.
• Since their return to the top-flight in 2012, Southampton have won more Premier League games against Crystal Palace than they have vs any other side (8).
• After a run of three consecutive home league defeats, Crystal Palace are unbeaten in their last four at Selhurst Park (W2 D2), coming from behind to win (1) or draw (2) in each of the last three.
• Away from home, Southampton have won just one of their last 14 evening kick-offs in the Premier League (7pm or later), beating Swansea 1-0 in May 2018 under Mark Hughes (D6 L7).
• Southampton are looking to win four consecutive away games for only the second time in Premier League history, last doing so in February 2015.
• Crystal Palace’s last four Premier League games have been draws – the last team to draw five in a row in the competition were West Ham in December 2015, while the last team to have five score draws consecutively were West Brom (May 2003-August 2004).
• Southampton have won 61% of their Premier League points in away games this season (17/28), the highest such ratio in the division.
• All 48 Premier League goals in Crystal Palace’s matches this season have been from inside the box (F22 A26) – the only side whose games haven’t seen a goal scored from outside the area so far.
• Southampton striker Shane Long has scored in 50 Premier League games, one of only 81 players to do so. Among those 81, Long has lost the highest percentage of the games he’s scored in (34% - 17 out of 50).
• Cenk Tosun scored on his first Premier League start for Crystal Palace against Manchester City; the only player to score in his first two starts in the competition for the Eagles was Bakary Sako in August 2015.

Everton v Newcastle (George Pitts)

Newcastle did brilliantly to get a late win over Chelsea on Saturday, but expecting something from them on the road just a few days later is a different story.

The Magpies have failed to win eight of 13 on the road this term and with a fairly quick turnaround, after such a testing game – which Steve Bruce called a ‘smash and grab’ – and with their injuries in mind, it is hard to look past the hosts here.

Everton have collected at least a point on home turf in eight of 11 games at Goodison this term, six of those wins, and their improvement since Marco Silva’s departure is clear to see. Under caretaker boss Duncan Ferguson and Carlo Ancelotti, they have collected 15 points from eight games. Under Silva they collected 14 from 15.

They have lost just once under the Italian in the league - a decent display at Man City - and they were 2-1 winners in the reverse fixture at St James’ Park last month. They are, understandably, odds-on favourites and Newcastle are a large 6/1 and we have a more appealing price on a goalscorer for this one.

While Dominic Calvert-Lewin is flourishing under Ancelotti with four in his last five, set pieces could be key here and there is definitely a case for Yerry Mina finding the back of the net.

The Colombian has not scored this season and only got one in the whole of last season, but his recent shots rate for a centre-back does catch the eye - earlier in the season, he even registered four attempts in one game against Southampton.

But in his last six Premier League appearances, the former Barcelona man has had seven attempts – good going to say two of those were substitute appearances totalling just 15 minutes.

He possesses a threat in the air and is key for corners at both ends. Of his 23 shots this season in the Premier League, 18 have been with his head so you could get an appealing price on him to score with just this body part against a Newcastle side that has conceded 10 goals from set pieces on the road this term.

But, going on his 16/1 anytime price, we’ll take that for a small stake.

Score prediction: Everton 2-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Best bet: Yerry Mina to score anytime at 16/1

Opta facts

• Everton have won 11 of their last 16 Premier League meetings with Newcastle (D2 L3) – more than they had in their first 33 against them in the competition (W10 D8 L15).
• Everton have lost just one of their last 15 home league games against Newcastle (W10 D4), going down 0-1 in September 2010.
• Everton are unbeaten in their last four home league games (W3 D1), keeping a clean sheet in each of their last three.
• Newcastle have won just three of their last 31 Premier League away games against the six ever-present sides (D3 L25), with all three of those victories coming against Spurs.
• Everton manager Carlo Ancelotti has never lost a home Premier League game against a team starting the day in the bottom-half on 19 previous occasions (W15 D4) – two of those winless games were against the Toffees, while one was against Newcastle in May 2011 as Chelsea manager.
• The two teams with the highest percentage of headed goals in the Premier League this season are Everton (38%) and Newcastle (32%).
• Everton striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored six of Everton’s last nine Premier League goals; Calvert-Lewin has nine Premier League goals this season and could become only the second Englishman in the last 13 seasons to score 10 league goals in a season for Everton, along with Wayne Rooney in 2017-18.
• Newcastle manager Steve Bruce inflicted Carlo Ancelotti’s heaviest home defeat of his entire managerial career in November 2010, winning 3-0 with Sunderland at Chelsea – however, the Italian has won his other four games against Bruce.
• Newcastle’s Allan Saint-Maximin registered his first Premier League assist against Chelsea – the Magpies have won 64% of their league games when he’s started this season (P11 W7 D2 L2), compared to just 8% when he hasn’t started (P12 W1 D3 L8).

Sheffield United v Manchester City (George Pitts)

After a hard-earned draw against Arsenal at the Emirates, Sheff United have a tough home clash against Man City, who will be licking their wounds after conceding late on to draw with Palace.

Will City bounce back and come out firing? Or can the Blades pile on the misery?

Going on Sheff United’s displays this season, the latter would be no surprise at all. They have taken points from Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham and Wolves this term and came so close against Liverpool at Bramall Lane.

But Chris Wilder’s men have been more impressive on the road, losing only to City and Liverpool, and it will be interesting to see how they cope when the reigning champions come to town.

The feeling is that City could narrowly edge it, but Sheff United will be well up for this one. And we don’t say that lightly or underestimate the hosts – we got a winner in Saturday’s tips by backing Sheff United on the +1 handicap and they were fully deserving of at least a point.

An interesting market to look at without the reliance of the result is on set pieces.

Man City top the corners chart by some distance – 189 in total this season to Arsenal’s 146 in second, while Sheff United are eighth on 126.

Their average at Bramall Lane is impressive though, with Wilder’s side taking seven per match while City average eight per Premier League game.

With the way the hosts are expected to take the game to Pep Guardiola’s men, they could easily enjoy a good spell of possession and the 11/4 available on both sides to have five or more corners does appeal.

Over 12 match corners is a short 6/4, but just under 3/1 for at least five each is a perfectly reasonable shout on two good, attacking sides.

Score prediction: Sheff United 1-2 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best bet: 5+ corners each team at 11/4

Opta facts

• Man City lost their last evening kick-off in the Premier League, 2-3 against Wolves. They’ve not lost consecutive games kicking off at 7pm or later in the competition since April 2007.
• Manchester City have kept just two clean sheets in their last 13 Premier League games, with one of those against Sheffield United at the Etihad.
• Three of Sheffield United’s six Premier League defeats this season have come against teams starting the day in the top-three of the division, losing all three without scoring.
• Manchester City have scored 33 away Premier League goals in 11 games on the road this season at an average of three per game – in English top-flight history, only one team have averaged more goals per game away from home in a season, with Preston North End scoring 35 in 11 games in 1888-89 (3.2 on average).
• Sheffield United midfielder John Fleck has scored five league goals this season – his most in a single season in English football. His five goals this campaign are more than he managed in 86 appearances across 2017-18 and 2018-19 for the Blades (four).
• Manchester City striker Sergio Agüero has scored five goals in two Premier League appearances in January – one more than he managed in 11 appearances this season across September, October, November and December (four goals).

Chelsea v Arsenal (George Pitts)

• 2015 GMT kick-off on BT Sport

On the face of it, this is a huge fixture. But is it really? It is just fourth v tenth after all.

Two huge sides who are some way off competing for the Premier League title again. Frank Lampard’s side have shown glimpses of potential this season, but games like the late defeat at Newcastle remind us of what they are missing.

As Alex Keble notes in his excellent weekend analysis, the Blues are short of a probing winger in particular. Christian Pulisic’s absence does not help but the options available without the American are quite average for a side with silverware aspirations. Callum Hudson-Odoi has promise but the young forward needs consistency and Willian tries hard, but the Brazilian has his off days.

Across London at Arsenal, it is early days for Mikel Arteta. They could actually have been good value for a win here if Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was not suspended. Without him it is a tougher task. The Gunners have shown elements of promise but are yet to perform convincingly for a full game under the Spaniard.

The good news for those tuning into this game is the distinct lack of defensive quality, so hopefully there will be goals. This fixture has conjured up some entertaining clashes in the past, including a 5-3 away win for Arsenal in 2011/12 and a 6-0 home thrashing by Chelsea in 2013/14.

With action expected at both ends and defensive lapses likely, the price on a goal to come in the last quarter of an hour at a fraction under evens is tempting enough.

There have been 16 goals in Chelsea games in this period, six in their favour and 10 conceded – including that defeat to Southampton at Stamford Bridge on Boxing Day. Arsenal, surprisingly, have only seen 10 in this time. But with the derby atmosphere and Chelsea’s approach at both ends, a late goal could well be key.

Score prediction: Chelsea 2-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Best bet: Time of last goal 76-full-time at 19/20

Opta facts

• Chelsea are looking to complete the Premier League double against Arsenal for the fifth time (2005-06, 2009-10, 2012-13 and 2015-16). Only Liverpool (5) and Man Utd (5) have done this against the Gunners on as many as five occasions.
• Arsenal are winless in their last seven Premier League away games against Chelsea (D1 L6) since winning 5-3 in October 2011. However, no team has won more Premier League away games at Stamford Bridge than the Gunners (7).
• In all competitions, Chelsea have lost six home games this season – they last lost more at Stamford Bridge in a single campaign back in 1994-95 (7).
• Arsenal have won just one of their last 10 away Premier League games (D6 L3), though they are unbeaten in their last five on the road (W1 D4).
• Chelsea have already lost as many Premier League games this season as they did during the entirety of last season under Maurizio Sarri (eight defeats).
• Arsenal have dropped 13 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, with more than half of these coming since Mikel Arteta was appointed manager in December (7).
• Only Norwich City (6,245) have given more Premier League minutes to players aged 21 or younger this season than Chelsea (5,736) and Arsenal (4,091).

SUPER 6: Entries by 1930 GMT on Tuesday January 21 - enter here

Our predictions:

• Aston Villa 0-2 Watford
• Bournemouth 1-1 Brighton
• Crystal Palace 1-2 Southampton
• Chelsea 2-2 Arsenal
• Everton 2-0 Newcastle
• Sheff United 1-2 Man City

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