Read our latest Champions League betting preview for predictions & best bets

Champions League betting tips: Tuesday's preview, predictions & latest odds for Atletico v Liverpool and Dortmund v PSG

By George Pitts

Football

Tue February 18, 2020 · 5y ago

George Pitts previews Tuesday's action in the Champions League, including Liverpool's last 16 fixture with Atletico Madrid.

Recommended bets

1pt Thomas Partey to be shown a card in Atletico v Liverpool at 9/5

0.5pt Roberto Firmino to score anytime in Atletico v Liverpool at 3/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Atletico Madrid v Liverpool

2000 kick-off on BT Sport 2

Roberto Firmino scores for Liverpool against Monterrey in the Club World Cup

Champions League holders Liverpool have a tough task against Atletico Madrid over two legs, but at least they can get the difficult trip to the Wanda Metropolitano out of the way before playing the return leg at Anfield.

Diego Simeone's side have only lost there once all season - 1-0 to leaders Barcelona in the league - and we know the Argentinian will make them incredibly tough to beat.

But the machine that is Liverpool is in town and they look incredibly solid at the minute, although they have lost in the Champions League this season - away at Napoli.

With Atleti's usual defence-first approach at this stage in mind, we are expecting a low-scoring game but the preference is to stay away from the result at a ground where Liverpool have fond memories - it played host to last season's Champions League final victory over Tottenham.

That being said, looking at the goalscorer markets there is plenty of value and Roberto Firmino at 3/1 anytime is worthy of a small bet.

The Brazilian is yet to score in Europe this term and he has just eight goals to his name domestically. But the forward is key to Liverpool's attack, with excellent link-up play in a false nine sort of role, creating space for Mo Salah and Sadio Mane to get the goals and pick up the plaudits.

Oppo insight: Atletico Madrid

That being said, he still knows where the back of the net is. The 28-year-old fired them to glory with two goals in as many games in the Club World Cup in December and he averages 1.5 and three shots per game in the Champions League and Premier League respectively this term.

He has gone four games without a goal now and this would be a great time to end a mini drought. Firmino is well capable of scoring big goals and the price here is favourable, with 15/2 that he scores first also worth a look.

Another fancy is in the cards market, and a man who is no stranger to a booking. Atleti midfielder Thomas Partey has nine to his name in LaLiga this term, plus one in Europe, and he will have a busy evening in the centre of the park on Tuesday.

The defensive midfielder will have a mixture of covering Firmino when he drops deep, as well as Liverpool's menacing midfield three - whoever that may be (likely Jordan Henderson, Fabinho and Georginio Wijnaldum), so if you do not fancy a cards bet then tackles could be worth considering.

But cards is where we are at. The 26-year-old commits over a foul per game and a fixture like this where Atletico will look to slow the Reds and grind them down, it points towards a job for Partey, who is 9/5 to be shown a card by Szymon Marciniak. The Polish referee has shown an incredible 111 yellows and four reds in 23 games this season.

Prediction: Atletico 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Best bets:

Key stats

Atletico Madrid celebrate a goal against Eibar

The head-to-head between Atlético Madrid and Liverpool in Europe is perfectly balanced with one win each and two draws (4 goals each). However, Atlético eliminated Liverpool in their only knockout tie, it was in the 2009/10 Europa League semi-finals, a tournament Atlético won, beating Fulham 2-1 in the final.
Atlético Madrid have never lost at home under Diego Simeone in the Champions League knockout stages (W8 D4). In those 12 games, they’ve only conceded two goals.
Atlético Madrid and Liverpool’s only previous Champions League encounters came in the 2008/09 group stages – both games ended 1-1.
Liverpool are winless in their last five away games against Spanish opposition in Europe, losing four (D1). Their last victory dates back to the Champions League round of 16 in 2008/09, against Real Madrid at Santiago Bernabeu (1-0).
Liverpool have always progressed against Spanish opposition in a two-legged Champions League tie (3/3): 2-2 on away goals v Barcelona (2006/07 round of 16), 5-0 on aggregate v Real Madrid (2008/09 round of 16), 4-3 v Barcelona (2018/19 semi-finals).
If he plays, this will be Alvaro Morata’s 50th Champions League game. 50% of the Atlético Madrid striker’s goals in the Champions League have come in the knockout phase (7/14).
Liverpool’s Sadio Mané has scored 10 goals in 14 Champions League knockout games since 2017/18, only Cristiano Ronaldo has been more prolific over that period (11 goals).
Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino have played more Champions League games than anyone else since 2017/18, featuring in 31 of Liverpool’s 32 games. The only exception was the Reds’ 4-0 home win against Barcelona in last season’s semi-finals.

Borussia Dortmund v Paris Saint-Germain

2000 kick-off on BT Sport 3

Erling Haaland has scored eight goals in five appearances for Dortmund

Thomas Tuchel faces his old side as he looks to take PSG beyond the last 16 for the first time in four seasons and to do what no other boss has managed - guide them to Champions League success.

If the French side perform like they did at Amiens on Saturday, they could be in trouble. They shipped four goals in a bizarre draw and Dortmund will need no further encouragement in front of the famous 'Yellow Wall'.

In theory, there should be plenty of goals here. PSG, who have not lost since November 1, have scored four or more goals in four of their last five games (conceding eight in that time). Dortmund, meanwhile, have seen a total of 35 goals in their last six matches (at both ends).

Both are playing parts in goalfests and over 4.5 total goals is tempting at 13/5 but, given how badly these sides want to advance they might just be a little more conservative than normal in the first leg.

Instead, the preference would be to look at the opening half-hour. Dortmund will be well up for this one and the 3/1 on them to be leading after 30 minutes is an appealing price about the home side, who have a talented attack which includes Axel Witsel, Thorgan Hazard, Jadon Sancho and wonderkid Erling Haaland.

They have scored 15 goals in the first 30 minutes in the Bundesliga this season and can capitalise on a PSG side that could still be licking their wounds after their freak result days earlier.

While this price is tempting, anything can happen in this one due to both sides' sheer unpredictability and the preference lies with the Liverpool bets - this could just be a thriller to enjoy for what it is.

Prediction: Dortmund 2-2 PSG (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Best bets: Dortmund to be leading after 30 minutes at 3/1

Key stats

Kylian Mbappe (right): France forward clashed with PSG boss Thomas Tuchel after being substituted in their win over Montpellier last month

The only previous encounter between Borussia Dortmund and Paris SG was in the 2010/11 Europa League group stages – both games ended in a draw (1-1 in Dortmund, 0-0 in Paris).
Borussia Dortmund have always scored at least two goals in their six Champions League home games against French clubs. However, among the 16 teams qualified for this season’s knockout phase, no team scored fewer goals in the group stages (8).
Borussia Dortmund have made it past the Champions League round of 16 only once in the last five seasons. It was in 2016/17 under current Paris SG manager Thomas Tuchel – they were eventually knocked out by Monaco in the quarter-finals.
Borussia Dortmund’s last 22 goals in the Champions League have all come from open play, the longest current run among the remaining sides in the competition.
Paris SG have reached the Champions League knockout stages for the eighth consecutive season – only Real Madrid (23), Barcelona (16) and Bayern Munich (12) are on a longer run. However, in that time, the French side have never gone past the quarter-finals and have been eliminated in the last 16 in each of the past three seasons.
None of Paris SG’s 26 games in the Champions League knockout stages has ended goalless, that’s more matches without a 0-0 than any other team in the latter phase of the competition.
Two of the three youngest players to have scored 3+ goals and delivered 3+ assists in the Champions League since last season play for Borussia Dortmund: 19-year-old Jadon Sancho (3 goals, 3 assists) and 21-year-old Achraf Hakimi (4 goals, 3 assists). The other is Paris SG’s 21-year-old Kylian Mbappé (9 goals, 8 assists).
Paris SG forward Kylian Mbappé has scored/assisted 30 goals in 30 Champions League games (19 goals, 11 assists). He’s netted three goals against Borussia Dortmund, his-joint-best record in the Champions League against a single opponent.

Odds correct as of 1200 GMT on 17/02/20

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