Free betting tips: Champions League - Juventus v Atletico Madrid; Manchester City v Schalke
It's the turn of Manchester City on Tuesday night as they aim to join two other English sides in the quarter-finals. Tom Carnduff has two bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Cristiano Ronaldo to have 3+ shots on target in Juventus v Atletico Madrid at 9/4
1pt Bernardo Silva to score anytime in Manchester City v Schalke at 5/2
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Juventus v Atletico Madrid (0-2 agg)
The visitors hold a 2-0 lead here and an away goal would all-but-end the tie.
Goals from defensive duo Jose Gimenez and Diego Godin helped Atletico secure a first-leg advantage in front of their own supporters, and they are well equipped to avoid defeat against Serie A giants Juventus.
Juventus' home record in the league has been a huge positive, winning nine of their ten games since defeat to Manchester United in the group stages, while Atletico have lost just one of their last ten away.
Five of those games have been draws, while the loss to Betis did come by a single goal. We know that Diego Simeone's side pride themselves on a strong defence and the same will apply here.
Juve will be hoping that Cristiano Ronaldo can demonstrate some of the magic that he has done during successful years at Real Madrid, where he won this competition on a number of occasions.
He carried the main attacking threat for the Italian side during the first-leg and we should expect a repeat performance here. The one thing that needs to change is more efforts troubling the goalkeeper, just one of his seven shots was on target.
We know his style of play and that's reflected in his shot count throughout the current competition. In the six Champions League game he has had involvement in, Ronaldo has posted a total of 35 shots.
Betfair offer 9/4 on the forward having three or more shots on target here which looks excellent value. Juve have a hill to climb and will have to call upon their strength in attack if they are to turn this tie around.
Score prediction: Juventus 1-1 Atletico Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Cristiano Ronaldo to have 3+ shots on target at 9/4
Opta facts
- 81% of teams to win their first leg at home by a 2-0 scoreline in a Champions League knockout game have progressed to the next round (13/16 previous cases), although the three sides to be eliminated in this scenario have done so in the last four such occurrences.
- Atlético Madrid are the opponent Juventus have faced the most times in the Champions League without ever winning (D1 L2) or scoring (31 shots, 0 goal).
- Atlético Madrid are unbeaten in the Champions League against Italian opposition under manager Diego Simeone (W5 D2). In those seven games, they have only conceded one goal, by Kaká in a 4-1 win against AC Milan in March 2014.
- Juventus have lost back-to-back games in the Champions League; they have never previously lost three in succession in the competition.
- Atlético Madrid have won just one of their last eight knockout games away from home in the Champions League (D2 L5), beating Bayer Leverkusen 4-2 in February 2017.
- Atlético Madrid have had just eight shots on target and scored two goals in away Champions League games this season; of teams left in the competition only Liverpool have managed fewer (5 shots on target, 1 goal).
- Six of the last seven goals conceded by Juventus in the Champions League have come from set-piece situations (2 from penalty, 2 from indirect free-kick, 1 from corner, 1 from direct free-kick).
- Juventus’ Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 22 goals in 32 career appearances against Atlético Madrid; only against Sevilla (27) and Getafe (23) has he scored more.
- Juventus’ Cristiano Ronaldo has scored only one goal in his six Champions League games this season, his lowest tally in a single campaign since 2005/06 (0 goals). In fact, only one of his last 45 shots in the competition has found the back of the net.
- 58% of Alvaro Morata’s goals in the Champions League have come in the knockout stages (7 out of 12), the highest ratio among the 20 Spanish players to have scored at least 10 goals in the competition going into the 2018-19 Last 16 second legs.
Manchester City v Schalke (3-2 agg)
City should have a fairly straightforward evening after winning the first-leg 3-2 away from home.
They conceded two penalties and a red card in that contest but Raheem Sterling, who is once again having an extraordinary season, came to the rescue with a late winner.
Pep Guardiola will be taking this game seriously though as they only lead by a single goal. Schalke have shown that they can provide some issues for City, although their season in the Bundesliga leaves a lot to be desired.
Nicolas Otamendi is suspended for this one and Aymeric Laporte could come in as his replacement, meanwhile Ilkay Gundogan is expected to line-up in the deeper midfield role in Fernandinho's absence.
One player who has caught the eye with a number of impressive performances is Bernardo Silva. The winger has had direct involvement in 16 goals across all competitions, including two goals on his Champions League tally.
Silva has switched between the winger and attacking midfield roles and is likely to play in the latter on Tuesday with Leroy Sane and Raheem Sterling expected to line-up either side of Sergio Aguero as the attacking trio.
The majority of his goals have come when playing more centrally. Even if he does line-up out wide, the goal against Lyon in their group stage encounter at the Etihad shows he can strike from the right wing.
It's worth a small play at a best price of 5/2 to score against a Schalke side who have lost their last four, winless in six. They have won just two of their 13 away league games and they stand little chance in Manchester.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Schalke (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Bernardo Silva to score anytime at 5/2
Opta facts
- Of the previous 27 occasions of a side scoring 3+ goals away from home in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie, all have gone on to progress, including six after winning 3-2.
- Manchester City have won each of their last three meetings with FC Schalke 04 in European competition, including a 5-1 win in the 1969-70 Cup Winners’ Cup semi-final in their only previous home match against the German club.
- Manchester City have only lost one of their 10 previous home meetings with German opponents in all European competitions (W7 D2), a 1-3 reverse in the 2013-14 Champions League group stages against Bayern Munich.
- Schalke have only won one of their last nine Champions League matches in the knockout stages (D1 L7), although this was their last such away match at Real Madrid in the 2014-15 competition (4-3).
- Manchester City have lost both of their last two knockout matches in the Champions League at the Etihad Stadium, both 1-2 defeats to FC Basel in March 2018 and Liverpool in April 2018.
- Man City boss Pep Guardiola has never lost to Schalke as a manager in seven previous clashes in all competitions, winning five and drawing two.
- Three of Schalke’s last four goals in the Champions League have been penalties by Nabil Bentaleb, who could be only the second player to score a penalty in three straight Champions League appearances within the same season after Thomas Müller in the 2014-15 campaign should he score from the spot again here.
- Manchester City striker Sergio Aguero has scored in each of his last three Champions League games (three goals) and is looking to score in four in a row in the competition for the first time.
- Leroy Sane has scored three goals in Manchester City’s last two Champions League games, as many as he had scored in his first 17 appearances in the competition for the Citizens and former side FC Schalke 04 combined beforehand.
- Schalke have scored with each of their last three shots on target in the Champions League (Alessandro Schöpf v Lokomotiv Moscow and Nabil Bentaleb x2 v Man City), with all three coming via set-piece scenarios (one free-kick, two penalties).
Odds correct at 1640 GMT (11/03/19)